Is Chris Carpenter Worth The Gamble?

Every season there are players looking to make their comeback story.  Many times it is a player who has been injured and sitting on the sidelines for a year or two. 

He has experienced success and lusts to get that glory back. As we enter 2009, one player who fits the mold perfectly is the Cardinals Chris Carpenter.

The former Cy Young Award winner is looking to make an impressive return to the major leagues, having thrown a total of 21.1 innings in the major leagues over the past two seasons. 

Tommy John surgery was the original cause, but things further deteriorated from there and culminated in “ulnar nerve transposition surgery” this off-season, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

The idea of him returning to being a useful starting pitcher seemed far-fetched even a few weeks ago. In fact, rumors were running rampant that the Cardinals were considering shifting him to the closers role as a way to protect the young options the team currently has.

Now, less then three weeks away from opening day, Carpenter has had an incredible spring. After tossing 6 shutout innings yesterday, he’s now gone 14 innings without yielding a run. He’s given up 7 hits and 4 walks while striking out 4.

Before we all get too excited, remember that this is still Spring Training. 

In fact, this is not even a normal spring, with many of the games stars off competing in the World Baseball Classic. 

Instead, minor leaguers who under normal circumstances may have long ago been reassigned to the minors, are taking their hacks against pitchers attempting to prepare for the season.

Yes, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff and Adam Jones were all in the line-up yesterday, as well as other starters. The point is, spring numbers can be awfully deceiving so certain things should be taken with a grain of salt.

Through all the positives the number that most jumps out at me is the strikeouts. While Carpenter was never a major strikeout artist, posting a career K/9 of 6.86, the lack of Ks is a major concern.  While the Cardinals had a solid defense last season, with just 85 errors (tying them for fifth in the league), there are questions heading into the season.

They have a glaring hole at 2B, something that a notorious groundball pitcher has to fear.  Over the three seasons prior to his injury parade, he posted groundball rates of:

• 2004 - 52.2%
• 2005 - 54.5%
• 2006 - 53.3%

Those are extremely impressive numbers, placing him in the Top 10 in each of those seasons. The idea of Skip Schumaker, a career OFer in the major leagues, manning 2B is certainly a huge detriment. 

While it’s possible he can do the job adequately, I’m really not sure at this point. He did play shortstop back in high school and college, but that was a long time ago having been drafted in 2001.

Early on this season the Cardinals will also be without their starting 3B from a year ago in Troy Glaus.  I know, that is certainly no surprise, but it has to be mentioned. He played 151 games last season committing just 7 errors. 

It’s unlikely his temporary replacement can repeat that type of success.  In fact, it’s nearly impossible that Glaus himself could be that good again. In the past he’s posted as many as 33 errors in a season.

I know that errors are not the best barometer of defense, as some players have better range then others. Still, it is something.

While those question marks should not be considered the end all be all for Carpenter, it certainly should be a factor. 

When you have a groundball pitcher it would be nice to know that he has a tremendous defensive infield behind him, but that’s not something that I can consider a guarantee.

He has had a tremendous spring thus far and it certainly would be a great story to see him come full circle. 

Unfortunately, the concerns over the defense behind him is only part of my concern. Having been away for so long, he will likely have a hard time readjusting to the major league game.

With so many injuries the past two seasons, it will be hard to imagine him staying healthy for the full season.  Any twinge…  Any tightness…  The team is going to have to take a closer look.  They are going to have to handle him with kid gloves to make sure that something more serious is not laying in wait.

This is not to say that I don’t think he’s worth a flyer late in your drafts.  He’s currently holding an ADP of 287.94 according to Mock Draft Central, meaning he’s going in Round 24 on average, though he has gone as high as 165 (Round 13).  Late in the draft, there’s no reason not to grab him.  The Cardinals always seem to be able to turn nothing into something on the mound, and in Carpenter they are starting with a whole lot more then nothing.

Don’t expect much, but I’d take the gamble.  I certainly wouldn’t reach for him very high, however, there are way too many questions.  What about you?  Is Carpenter a pitcher you have any interest in late in your drafts?

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