Fantasy Baseball: BREAKOUT Players

Fantasy Baseball - BREAKOUT Corner Infielders

Chris Davis- In half a season (80 games, 295 ABs) with Texas Davis hit .285 with 51 Runs, 23 Doubles, 17 HRs, and 55 RBI.  He struggled in August with his average (.228), but he still managed to drive in 20 runs. 

He rebounded nicely by hitting .325 in September.  I think he’ll hit 25 HRs and drive in 100 runs.

Billy Butler- Butler was great after the All-Star Break hitting .305 with 29 Runs, 9 HRs, and 36 RBI in 57 games.  He hit .249 with 15 Runs, 2 HRs, and 19 RBI in his first 67 games.  He should be able to drive in 80-90 runs if he stays healthy.

Edwin Encarnación- Edwin’s HRs have increased every year from 9 to 15 to 16 to 26.  His RBI dropped from 76 to 68, but that, in part, is a reflection of the 38 point dip in his average.  If he can get his average in line, he could possibly hit 30 HRs with 90 RBI.

Fantasy Baseball - BREAKOUT Middle Infielders

Alexei Ramírez- Alexei was one of the biggest surprises last year hitting .290 with 21 HRs and 77 RBI en route to a second-place finish behind Evan Longoria in Rookie of the Year balloting. 

He makes the switch from Second Base to Shortstop, but I don’t think that will stop him from taking the next step for the White Sox.  He played in just 136 games last year. 

If he stays healthy he should be able to score 90+ Runs, hit 25+ HRs, drive in 80+ Runs, and steal 20+ bases.  He’s especially valuable in Yahoo leagues as he qualifies at 2B, SS, and OF.

Howie Kendrick- I know he was supposed to breakout last year, but I’m guessing everyone was a year behind for the talented Angel Second Baseman.  The main categories he’ll contribute in are Average and Doubles. 

He has a .306 average in 252 career games.  He hit .314 the past two years.  He has 71 career Doubles.  Projected out to a 162 game season it’s an average of 45.6 Doubles. 

If he can manage to play a full year I expect him to him .300 with 80+ Runs, 40+ Doubles, 65+ RBI, and 18+ SBs. 

Alexi Casilla - Alexi was a spark plug for the Twins last year hitting .281 with 58 Runs and 50 RBI in 98 games.  His average dipped after the All-Star Break (.315 to .243), but he managed to score as many Runs (29) in six fewer games.

In a full season Alexi should be able to score 80+ Runs, drive in 65+, and pick up around 12 SBs.

Jed Lowrie - Jed played exactly half a season last year for the Red Sox hitting .258 with 34 Runs, 67 Hits, 25 Doubles, and 46 RBI in his Rookie debut. In his sophomore campaign, I think he’ll improve in some areas, and decline in others. 

I think his average will improve to at least .265, his runs to more than double at 80+, and his Hits to more than Double at 140. His Doubles will less than Double at 40 and his RBI total to less than Double at 75. He qualifies at 3B and SS in Yahoo leagues.

Fantasy Baseball - BREAKOUT Outfielders

Jay Bruce- Bruce showcased some power with 21 HRs in 108 games, which translates to 31 in a full season, which coincidentally is the number he hit last year between the Reds and in AAA. His 2007 numbers project to 162 games as he rose through the ranks from Single A to Double A to Triple A. 

Does that mean I believe he’ll hit 31 HRs next year?  No.  It hink he may hit a few more. He had 15 HRs in 64 games after the All-Star Break.  At that pace, he’d hit 38 in a full season. 

I don’t think he’s quite up to that task, but 33 HRs isn’t out of the question, especially in that park. I think he’ll improve his average, which was just .254 last year. He hit .334 in AAA so .270 isn’t out of the question.

I expect him to produce 80 Runs and RBIs as well.  He’ll need to hit Lefties much better. He hit .190 against them wiht 3 HRs and 9 RBI in 137 at-bats, compared to .286, 18, and 43 in 276 ABs against Righties.

Nelson Cruz - Nelson raked last year hitting .330 with 19 Runs, 7 HRs, and 26 RBI in 31 games. This after hitting .342 with 37 HRs, and 99 RBI in 103 AAA games. He has a history of killing AAA pitching (.328 since 2006) and then struggling in the bigs (.231 in 2006 & 2007).  That changed last year when he finally put it together.

For the first time he’ll start in the Majors.  In a full year he should hit .280 with 75+ Runs, 25+ HRs, and 80+ RBI.

Justin Upton - Many thought last year would be his breakout year. I think he takes steps this year. Aside from his stint in A+ and AA ball in 2007 when he combined to hit .319, he hasn’t really delivered on any level. That said, he has the tools to hit .270 with 70 R, 8 Triples, 20 HRs, and 70 RBI.

Denard Span -  Span was groomed to replace Torii Hunter, but missed out on his chance when Carlos Gomez was acquired in the Johan Santana trade with the Mets.  Some feel he had a better Spring than Gomez, but the team wanted to have a piece of that trade in the lineup on Opening Day.

Span made the most of his opportunity when he was called up. He hit .294 with 70 Runs, 47 RBI, and 18 SBs in 93 games. That projects to 122 R, 82 RBI, and 31 SBs. I don’t think he’ll score that many Runs, but he easily could hit .280 with 100 R, 30 Doubles, 15 HRs, 80 RBI, and 30 SBs.

Adam Jones - Jones made a solid debut with the Orioles after coming over in the Erik Bedard trade, hitting .270 with 61 Runs, 7 Triples, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, and 10 SBs in 132 games. In 2007 he tore up AAA pitching for Tacoma of the Pacific League hitting .314 with 25 HRs and 84 RBI in 101 games. 

His numbers held up pretty well with Baltimore.  He’s a young kid, just 23, and should continue to progress this year hitting .280 with 80 Runs, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, and 15 SBs.

Shin-Soo Choo- South Korea’s Shin-Soo Choo had a mini-breakout last year hitting .309 with 68 Runs, 28 Doubles, 14 HRs, and 66 RBI in 94 games for the Indians. Those numbers project to 117 Runs, 48 Doubles, 24 HRs, and 114 RBI in a full season.

While I don’t expect him to reach those lofty numbers, I could see him bat .300 with 90 Runs, 40 Doubles, 20 HRs, and 90 RBI. 

Elijah Dukes- You know the M.O. on Dukes. Plenty of talent and plenty of issues. The move to Washington seemed to be a good one for Dukes both on and off the field. On it he scored 48 Runs with 13 HRs, 44 RBI, and 13 SBs in 81 games, which projects to 96 R, 26 HR, 88 RBI, and 26 SBs.

I don’t think he’ll quite reach those numbers, but I can see 80 R, 20 HRs, 75 RBI, and 20 SBs if he stays healthy both physically and mentally.

Cameron Maybin- Though his taste in the bigs last year (.500 with 9 Runs, 16 Hits, 4 SBs in eight games) was much briefer than his 2007 taste (.143, 8 R, 7 H, 5 SBs in 24 games) it was far more successful. 

He has swiped 73 bases in 299 minor league games.  He very well could hit leadoff for the Marlins, which could put his Run total near 100 with 25-30 SBs if he stays healthy and doesn’t need more seasoning in AAA.  He’ll turn 22 in April.

Chris Dickerson- Dickerson made an impressive debut with the Reds last year hitting .304 with 20 Runs, 31 Hits, 9 Doubles, 2 Triples, 6 HRs, 15 RBI, and 5 SBs in 31 games. His slugging percentage was an impressive .608. 

Before you start handing him the Rookie of the Year, his high slugging percentate in the Minors was .479.  That came last year though so it’s encouraging.

I think where he’ll help you is in the Runs and Stolen Bases departments. He has 135 SBs in 622 Minor League games.  If he gets a full season in he could score 80 Runs and swipe 25 bases.  I’d expect him to hit about 25 Doubles and 15 HRs bringing that Slugging Percentage below .500.

Travis Snider - Snider hit .301 with 9 Runs, 6 Doubles, 2 HRs, and 13 RBI in 24 games with the Blue Jays last year.  He has 50 HRs and 225 RBI in 305 Minor League games, which projects to 27 & 120 in a full Major League season. 

Obviously he won’t hit at that clip, but it gives you an idea of what type of hitter he is.  His Minor League Slugging Percentage is .513 with and OPS of .888.  He’s just 21 with loads of potential. He’s probably a couple years off, but worth keeping an eye on.

Fantasy Baseball - BREAKOUT Pitchers

Francisco Liriano - Liriano exploded on the scene in 2006 going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA.  He missed 2007 and struggled early last year following Tommy John surgery.  After tearing up the Minors, Liriano returned to go 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .236 BAA in 11 starts in August and September.

His September numbers (4.66 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .289 BAA in five starts) were a little alarming, but he was probably dealing with arm fatigue. The Twins are one of the best at pacing their starters so that shouldn’t plague Liriano in 2009.

If he stays healthy he should be able to win 16+ games with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.

Joba Chamberlain - The Yankees are taking it slow with their young star as well.  When he’s healthy he is nearly unhittable, as evidenced by his career 2.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .217 BAA.

With the addition of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, and a healthy Chien-Ming Wang, there won’t be as much pressure on Joba to perform. He’ll settle into that fifth spot in the rotation, behind Andy Pettitte, and the early schedule should allow him the opportunity to miss a start or two if that’s in his best interest. 

The limitations the Yankees will put on him will keep him from having a monster year, but he should be able to win 12-14 games with a low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. 

Yovani Gallardo- A knee injury cost Gallardo the opportunity to build on the solid 2007 season (9-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .245 BAA). 

In just four starts last year Gallardo had a 1.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .256 BAA. With the departure of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, Gallardo will have a chance to be a key member of the Brewers Pitching Staff. With their solid Offense, he could win 14-16 games if he stays healthy with low ERA, WHIP, and BAA. 

David Price - Price toyed with Major League competition last year posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a .176 BAA. His success spilled over into the postseason posting a 1.59 ERA in five relief appearances.

Whether Tampa Bay uses his as a Reliever or a Starter, Price will give your fantasy team a boost in ERA and R.

Jonathan Broxton- Broxton took the Closer job last July and ran with it.  He recorded 14 Saves with a 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .200 BAA with 42 Ks in 29.3 Innings after the All-Star Break. He was solid in a setup role the previous two and a half seasons so his success isn’t a fluke. 

Now that the Dodgers have secured Manny Ramirez’s services, they’ll likely build on their success of last year meaning Broxton could have plenty of Save opportunities. I don’t think he’ll have a problem reach 30-35 Saves.

Josh Johnson - Johnson went 7-1 last year with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.  Opponents did bat .275 on him, but his other numbers are still solid. In 2006, he was 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .236 BAA.

He is also trying to continue a successful return from Tommy John surgery. If he stays healthy he could win 12-14 games with a sub-4.00 ERA

Clayton Kershaw- Clayton went 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a .265 BAA.  He did show improvement after the All-Star Break going 5-3 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .262 BAA. 

In the Minors he went 12-10 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.  His K/9 ratio in the Minors was 11.3, and a decent 8.4 in the Bigs.  He could win 12+ games with a sub-4.00 ERA.

Max Scherzer - Max failed to pick up a Win last year in seven starts (16 Games), but did manage a 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .234.  He recorded 66 Ks in 56 Innings (10.6 K/9).

He’s been battling shoulder inflammation and may not have a spot in the rotation initially, but he’s too good of a talent to not get a chance. In 30 Minor League starts Max is 8-5 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. 

His Minor League K/9 ratio is 11.9.  Given that his role has yet to be determined, his Win total likely won’t help fantasy teams, but he’ll be a nice source for Ks, ERA, and WHIP.

Fantasy Baseball - BREAKOUT Catchers

Matt Wieters - Wieters is Baltimore’s “Can’t Miss” Catching Prospect. He is a switch-hitter that can hit for average and power.  He creamed Minor League pitching last year to the tune of .355, 89 Runs, 27 HRs, 91 RBI, .600 Slugging Percentage, and a 1.054 OPS in 130 games. 

His average actually increased from .345 to .365 when he made the jump from Single A to Double-A.  He never hit below .355 at Georgia Tech and had 35 HRs in 185 games.  He may start off in Triple A, but he’ll find his way to the Bigs sooner rather than later.

Chris Iannetta - Colorado’s young Catcher was a model of consistency last year playing an equal number of games before and after the All-Star Break.  His Double and HR totals were also identical.

He had nearly the same number of At Bats, Hits, RBI, and OPS.  In 104 games (333 At Bats) he had 18 HRs and 65 RBI. If he can get his ABs around 400 or so he should be able to hit 22 HRs and drive in 75 Runs. Not bad for a later round pick. 

Pablo Sandoval- He’s not likely going to play a lot of games at Catcher, but he has Catcher eligibility, which makes him attractive. He hit .345 with 24 Runs, 3 HRs, and 24 RBI for the Giants in 41 games (145 ABs). 

That project to 95 R, 12 HR, and 95 RBI.  While I don’t expect him to maintain that average or those numbers, I could see him hit around .300 with 75 Runs and 70 RBI.  In 452 Minor League games he hit .303 with 256 Runs and 273 RBI.

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