Max Scherzer: To Draft or Not To Draft

Max Scherzer is a pitcher I’ve been keeping a close eye on since early last season. In fact, I had picked him up in my keeper league early on, only to use him as a trading chip around the trade deadline in an effort to go for the championship (which I did win).

I threw caution to the wind, so to speak, and ignored the potential impact that it could have on my 2009 team.

In the offseason, I actually had the opportunity to acquire him, but I opted not to. Part of the reason was the presence of Clayton Kershaw and Brandon Morrow already among my keepers. There were other concerns, however, but were they enough to dissuade me?

During his rookie season, he was impressive, even spectacular at times:

0 Wins
56.0 Innings
3.05 ERA
1.23 WHIP
66 Strikeouts (10.61 K/9)
21 Walks (3.38 BB/9)
.319 BABIP

Arm injuries limited him to just 109 innings (along with his Triple-A totals), which will likely limit his innings this season. That will have a major impact on his value. Those injuries, however, cannot just be brushed to the side.

In his first full professional season (he was selected in the first round of the 2006 draft but didn’t sign with the team until May of 2007), he suffered from shoulder fatigue. It cost him significant time and caused the Diamondbacks to handle him with care.

The problem has already reared its ugly head this season, as the team shut him down in January because of inflammation in his shoulder. In an article from The Arizona Republic, manager Bob Melvin “acknowledged that it is possible Scherzer could start the season on the disabled list, because the Diamondbacks won’t need a fifth starter until mid-April.”

He was pitching well in the high-powered Arizona Fall League prior to being shutdown, posting a 3.38 ERA over 24 innings.  He also had a minuscule 0.88 WHIP and 24 K’s, making the line look even more impressive.

No matter how impressive he’s been, the fact that he has yet to take the mound during Spring Training has got to be a concern. There has been talk that he’s better suited to come out of the bullpen, and continuous injuries could cause the Diamondbacks to view that as a more realistic option.

For now it’s not happening, but it is worth considering.

There’s no doubting his talents, he’s shown that at every step of the way. He’s posted a minor league ERA of 2.83 to go along with an 11.9 K/9 over 159.2 innings. Like many power pitchers, he did struggle with control a bit, with a BB/9 of 3.8, which could cause problems with his WHIP in the majors, though unlikely.

The fact that he rarely has opponents put the ball in play against offsets it.

In his major league debut he struck out 7 over 4.1 innings out of the bullpen.  As a starter (seven starts) he posted a 3.41 ERA, but failed to get a win. The fact that he never pitched over six innings certainly contributed to that and could be a problem that dogs him in 2009 as well.

He is likely to be on an inning limit, and a tight one at that, which could cause the Diamondbacks to play things safe with him. If they want him to be available down the stretch, they are going to be cautious.

No matter how good the team is, if he can’t go long into games the wins are going to be few and far between.

The strikeout potential makes him extremely valuable, as he posted a K/9 of 11.68 as a starter last season. That would be an elite number, but health concerns coupled with a likely innings cap will certainly limit his value. 

That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t recommend grabbing him, because he’s a pitcher that I am extremely high on. I would say that he should be on your radar, but make sure you have a very good bench option available to you, because sooner or later (most likely sooner) you are going to need it.

What do you think?  Is Scherzer a pitcher you want for 2009 or are the concerns too great?

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