AL East Projected Standings: Will New York's Offseason Spending Spree Pay Off?

Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.

1. Boston Red Sox

Two years removed from their second World Series championship in four years, the Boston Red Sox are projected to win the most games, score the most runs, and allow the second-fewest in the major leagues. Presumably they are FEIN's World Series favorites.

This offseason, the Red Sox spent $12.5 million on Takashi Saito, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and Rocco Baldelli. According to FEIN, that may have been the best $12.5 million spent this offseason.

FEIN projects Saito and Smoltz to combine for 10 wins and 128 strikeouts, as well as a 3.48 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, in 137 innings. Smoltz will be out till early June, and a loaded bullpen and rotation may hinder his return to the roster—Brady Penny has the worst projected ERA of the current staff (4.84), but the Sox wouldn't send him down to the minors after just signing him to a $5 million deal; Tim Wakefield (projected ERA of 4.44) is the current No. 4 pitcher and hasn't been sent to the minors since 1995; and Justin Masterson (3.80) and Manny Delcarmen (3.51) are unlikely to give up their spots in the bullpen.

Baldelli is projected to have an OPS of .806, which would incredibly rank sixth on the team. David Ortiz's projected OPS of .968 is the highest on the Red Sox and would rank third in the league, and FEIN thinks he'll bounce back drastically from last year's disappointment.

Outfielder Jason Bay—who was acquired mid-season for Manny Ramirez—is forecasted to be 15th among batters in fantasy dollars earned in 2009, with a .853 OPS, 27 home runs, almost 100 of each runs and RBI, and 10 steals. Bay's line is one of the best in the league, but FEIN still believes that Ramirez will outperform him in almost every stat, including an OPS 70 points higher and four more home runs in 45 less plate appearances.

In the pitching staff, the Sox have a three-headed rotation headed by Josh Beckett. But FEIN isn't such a fan of Beckett, projecting a 3.89 ERA (but a 1.21 WHIP) in 169 innings. FEIN is higher on Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka (3.75 and 3.81 respectively), however, and collectively, the top three starters are projected to have a 3.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in an average of 171 innings.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon is projected to have the lowest ERA in the league, at 2.69, the second-lowest WHIP, at 1.10, and the most saves, at 40. He's the anchor to the best bullpen in the league (a projected 3.71 ERA).

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees' projected stats are with Alex Rodriguez's injury factored in. I prorated A-Rod's stats to somewhere around 500 to 520 plate appearances (I forgot the exact number) and used that in their calculations. If I remember correctly, the Yankees lost about half a win with this adjustment, but they wouldn't have jumped the Red Sox either way.

After the Yankees spent $423 million in the offseason (and still came short of their 2008 payroll), the major question heading into the 2009 season is whether the Yankees' spending spree will leap them into the playoffs and maybe even the World Series.

FEIN thinks they are clearly the second-best team in the league, projected to win the second-most games, score the second-most runs, and allow the third-most runs. In each of those categories, they just so happen to trail the Red Sox by one spot.

The first two of the Yankees' free agent signings were a pair of initialed starters, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Sabathia's forecast is spectacular, even after factoring his move from the NL to the AL: a 16-9 record, 3.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts in 222 innings. That line was good for the second-most projected fantasy dollars among pitchers.

Burnett's projection isn't quite as good (a 4.04 ERA), but his peripherals—8.90 strikeouts per nine, 3.38 walks per nine, 0.90 home runs per nine, and a .300 BABIP—show he could improve on his projection.

The third major signing by New York was first baseman Mark Teixeira. Teixeira's projected line of 93 runs, 31 home runs, and 112 RBI is good enough to rank him as the 14th-best hitter in fantasy, and his .904 projected OPS is almost 90 points ahead of third on the Yankees (Nick Swisher, at .817).

Alex Rodriguez is projected to have a .949 OPS, but after adjusting his stats down 20 percent due to his injury, Rodriguez's home run total is projected to be just 30, along with 85 runs and 91 RBI. Before his injury, he was a top-three fantasy pick. Now, even after the 20 percent drop, he's still a late second- or early third-round pick.

Joba Chamberlain will start this year, and FEIN thinks highly of him, with a projected 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts in 107 innings. Those numbers may fall slightly, however, with a full year in the rotation.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

That the Rays' hopes to make the playoffs are impaired by playing in the AL East is an understatement.

Projected to win the third-most games in the AL, the Rays are also projected to miss the playoffs—even though the other two division winners in the AL are forecasted to win three games less than the Rays.

Tampa Bay is projected to score the third-most runs and allow the third-least in the AL, behind only their AL East counterparts, Boston and New York. But, unfortunately, the defending AL champions have little to no chance of making the playoffs this year.

Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria is projected to surpass his 2008 numbers, with a forecasted .297 average, although his RBI should fall some. His projected .907 OPS is the highest among all players younger than 26.

Pat Burrell was acquired in the offseason from the World Series winners, the Philadelphia Phillies. Burrell's had an OPS of .875 or greater in each of the past four years, but FEIN realizes that his moving from a hitter's park to a slight pitcher's park, in addition to his move from the NL to the AL. FEIN's projection for Burrell is a .812 OPS and a dreadful .248 batting average.

In the rotation, FEIN thinks the Rays' best pitcher is not James Shields, but Scott Kazmir. Kazmir's been spectacular since 2005—742 strikeouts and a 3.51 ERA in 690 innings—and he's projected to have a 3.66 ERA and 177 strikeouts in 162 innings in 2009.

Except for Kazmir, however, FEIN is down on all the Rays' starters. James Shields, who had a 3.56 ERA last year, is projected for a 4.01 ERA; Matt Garza, who had a 3.70 ERA last year, is projected to have a 4.05 ERA this year; and Andy Sonnastine, who had a 3.54 base runs ERA (an estimated ERA based on hits, home runs, and walks and how FEIN projects ERA) last year, has a 4.56 projected ERA.

As of now, the Rays' closer situation is up in air, but the Rays are leaning towards Troy Percival (projected ERA of 4.13), Dan Wheeler (3.90), and Jason Isringhausen (4.60) for the closer position. FEIN, though, believes that Grant Balfour (3.30) and Chad Bradford (3.83) are the best candidates.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

You could call 2008 a success for the Blue Jays. They allowed only 610 runs—only one team since 2004 has allowed less—had a better run differential than the Tampa Bay Rays, and, if not for their poor record in one-run games, would have gone 95-67 and tied the Red Sox.

Yet the Blue Jays don't seem to be able to replicate that success in 2009. Shaun Marcum, who had a 3.39 ERA in 151 innings last year and was projected to have a 4.29 ERA, is out for the year after Tommy John surgery. (Note: The above projected wins and losses include Marcum.) Dustin McGowan may be out till May or June; he had a 4.37 ERA last year and is projected that this year, too.

Roy Halladay is one of the five best pitchers in the league, but even he can't reproduce his 206 strikeouts and 2.78 ERA. FEIN sees a spectacular season nonetheless, with a 3.42 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14 wins, and 154 strikeouts in 212 innings. Fantasy owners should note that his projected line makes him just the No. 7 pitcher next year.

Another surprise for the Blue Jays last year was Jesse Litsch's 3.58 ERA in 176 innings. (Though, he did have a 3.81 ERA in 111 innings a year prior.) But Litsch's peripherals were unimpressive, and his strikeouts, walks, and home runs suggested a 4.29 ERA. FEIN projects for Litsch a respectable 4.15 ERA with a depressing 2.04 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Toronto's offense isn't too remarkable, either. Only two hitters are projected to have an OPS over .800. One of them is Alex Rios.

Rios' OPS has declined each year since 2006 when it was .865, but FEIN forecasts a .811 OPS, higher than last year's .798. His home runs should increase from last year to 18, and his stolen bases should decline to 20.

FEIN doesn't buy the Blue Jays' 2008 season. Or their 2007 season. FEIN has them winning less than 80 for the first time since 2004.

 5. Baltimore Orioles

If you wanted a two-word prediction of the Orioles' 2009 season, it could best be summed up as, "No chance." Baltimore is projected to win just 70 games—only two teams are projected to win less—and allow the most runs, one of only two teams projected to allow five or more runs per game.

But surprisingly, their offense isn't half-bad. Well, actually, they are, forecasted to score just under the league average runs per game (4.70). Their lineup is lead by Nick Markakis, who had a .897 OPS last year. Markakis' projection calls for an OPS of .858, an average of .305, 19 home runs, and 10 steals. His 91 projected runs and 84 RBI lead to his being worth the No. 37 pick in standard fantasy leagues.

An even better pick than Markakis, however, is Brian Roberts. Roberts is projected for 35 steals after 40 last year and 50 in 2007, as well as 96 runs after over 100 in both 2007 and 2008. That makes him worth the No. 33 pick, a third-rounder, in standard 12-team fantasy leagues, which makes him the No. 2 second baseman after Chase Utley.

As for pitching, the Orioles have none. And I mean that. They currently have only two pitchers projected to reach 100 innings (which is solely based on past playing time): Jeremy Guthrie and Mark Hendrickson. Hendrickson is projected to have a 5.50 ERA, but Guthrie's a little better.

Guthrie has had a 3.70-or-lower ERA in each of the past two years. But his very low BABIPs (.267 and .277) in those years shows he may very well regress some, and FEIN believes he will. FEIN projects a 4.25 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 175 innings, with 9.31 hits per nine innings. (He's allowed 8.39 per nine in the last two years.)