2012 NLCS: Why Tim Lincecum Isn't Prepared to Play Hero for the Giants in Game 4

With the San Francisco Giants trailing 2-1 in the NLCS, Tim Lincecum has an opportunity to salvage their season—and his own—with a heroic performance in Game 4.

I doubt he'll deliver. Not when opposed by a potent St. Louis Cardinals lineup.

The Red Birds are a nightmarish matchup because of their juggernaut offense, which scored 4.72 runs per game during the regular season. Their average output in these playoffs—against three elite pitching staffs—is 5.33.

But let's get into specifically why Timmy is doomed to fail.

Since 2010 (postseason included), Lincecum has made 104 starts, and 14 times exited without surrendering a run. Though in each of those instances, he induced at least 10 swings-and-misses. Helpless hacks indicate that he's in control.

However, the Cardinals aren't susceptible to such things. Their 2012 strikeout percentage (18.8%) was third-lowest in the National League. Plus, given their equally impressive walk rate (8.4%), the odds of them chasing ugly pitches outside the zone are slim.

Frequent contact will be made off the Freak's diminished fastball. The only way he gets through St. Louis unscathed is if he prays to the BABIP gods beforehand.

Remember, he is making his grand return to the rotation less than a week after working in relief. That's a simple difficult brutal transition.

R.A. Dickey, Kris Medlen, Chris Sale and dozens of others tried the same stunt at some point this year. And guess what? None of them made it through seven innings! Adequately stretching out a bullpen arm requires time, which is a luxury San Francisco doesn't have.

Lincecum exploited an advantage in Game 1—the element of surprise. Unfamiliarity in baseball usually favors pitchers and it had been more than 16 months since the Cardinals last faced him.

The only overwhelmed players on Thursday night will be in the Giants dugout, futilely battling to avoid another loss when their starter is sent to the showers early.

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