Fantasy Basketball: 5 Stars Guaranteed to Fail

Most fantasy NBA drafts have, in all likelihood, already taken place.  As was the case in every draft room, most if not all, managers are saying how their team is best because of their drafting one particular star.

While the presence of an A-list star and other great players on a fantasy team is definitely important, some managers are always guilty of an ongoing fantasy crime: overhyping a superstar.

To give everyone an example, allow me to take you back to the 2008-09 season.  I let my obsession with Andrew Bogut, then of the Milwaukee Bucks, lead me to draft him as my starting center in his first season after a career year.  Instead of building upon that, Bogut only played in 36 games due to injury and my team was sunk.  After putting all of my money on one star, I paid for it by not making the playoffs.

Sure enough, there are a handful of stars this season who, despite still having some gas left in the tank, can only regress and be considered failures in the fantasy department.  Be it the aging Kevin Garnett or another over-the-hill player, fantasy owners that select any of the following players will be setting themselves up for a disappointing 2012-13 campaign.

No. 5: Al Harrington, Orlando Magic

2011-12 Stats: 14.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, .333 3P%

It's not yet clear as to who the new go-to guy in Orlando is going to be, but looking at the roster post-Dwight Howard trade, the two most obvious choices are either Harrington or Arron Afflalo.  Assuming coach Jacque Vaughn tabs Harrington as the first string scorer, the former first-round pick is going to be in for a disappointing season.

While Harrington has certainly shown that he can hold his own in the scoring and long-range shooting department, it should be noted that his best scoring years came under certain circumstances.

Not only was he playing in fast-paced offenses run by coaches like Don Nelson and Mike D'Antoni, but he also had a good pass-first point guard getting him the ball, most notably Baron Davis when the two played together for the Golden State Warriors.

Even in Denver, where George Karl doesn't run a run-and-gun game, Harrington managed to do well with the likes of Ty Lawson and Chauncey Billups passing the ball to him.

Now that he's in Orlando, however, Harrington is going to be due for a rude awakening.

Not only do we not know what kind of system Vaughn, a first-time head coach, plans to employ, but Harrington will have a shoot-first point guard in Jameer Nelson in charge of running the offense.  As we saw with the New York Knicks up until Jeremy Lin stepped into the picture, the lack of a reliable point guard can sink a team, and in Orlando, Nelson's reluctance to pass the ball in favor of scoring will sink Harrington's stats.

No. 4: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics

2011-12 Stats: 15.8 PPG, 8.2 RPB, .503 FG%

Yes, Garnett is a great player to have on your fantasy team because he is the definition of consistency, but this just isn't going to be his year.  While solid, the man is too much of a health risk and is a lock to miss time with a nagging injury.  Given how thin the power forward/center position tends to be post-draft, along with the fact that Garnett hasn't played a full 82 games since 2004-05, those who have yet to draft would be wise to shy away from him.

More importantly, the Celtics have already started preparing for the future with the re-signing of power forward Brandon Bass and the drafting of Jared Sullinger, who played some center at Ohio State and has incredible size.

Seeing as how the former Buckeye has been impressive in training camp thus far and is bound to earn significant minutes, 2012-13 keeps on looking more like the season in which Garnett will slowly start to be phased out.

No. 3: Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls

2011-12 Stats: 15.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, .532 FG%

Prior to joining the Chicago Bulls, the 6'9" Boozer was a scoring and rebounding machine for the Utah Jazz.  Yet, once he arrived in the Windy City, his scoring and rebounding numbers dropped immensely.  Once a force under the basket, the former Duke Blue Devil now appeared soft and hesitant to get his hands dirty.

Unfortunately, even with point guard Derrick Rose out for an extended period of time, Boozer has yet to do anything to show that he can help pick up the slack.  Over four preseason games, he has averaged just five rebounds a contest.  That's just unacceptable for someone his size.

The sad truth is that his averages in points and rebounds per game have dropped each of his first two years in Chicago, and there's little reason to believe that they won't drop even further in 2012-13.

No. 2: Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets

2011-12 Stats: 17.1 PPG, .413 FG%, .347 3P%

Martin is a pure scorer, but his subpar shooting percentages last year show that he isn't right for coach Kevin McHale's system.  Instead of making a full effort on defense, Martin instead prefers to stick to an almost street-like style of play, and as a result, he and McHale feuded last season and all signs point to the free agent to-be leaving Houston next summer.

That said, drafting Martin is the ultimate fantasy crapshoot.  He's either going to play as hard as possible in his contract year or implode in McHale's system, maybe even be traded midseason.

Seeing as how Houston has rookie guard Jeremy Lamb available to step in for Martin at any time should that become necessary, best to shy away from the man in the draft room.

No. 1: Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets

2011-12 Stats: 18.8 PPG, .454 FG%, .388 3P%

After years of being the main go-to guy for the Atlanta Hawks, Johnson's numbers are about to take a big hit in Brooklyn.  In just two preseason games played, he is averaging just 13.5 points and is already starting to abandon his natural scoring touch in favor of taking about half his shots per game from long range.

Simply put, Johnson isn't the big man on campus anymore and is now in a system in which teammate and point guard Deron Williams is going to spread the ball around and give everybody a chance to shine on offense.  With a great athlete in Gerald Wallace manning the 3 and Brook Lopez having great size at center, this Nets team has every chance to turn into this season's new Lob City.

Given how Johnson isn't a phenomenal dunker and already seems to be on the path towards mediocre shooting numbers, his stats are destined to take a huge dive this year, and when it comes to drafting a shooting guard for your fantasy team, there are plenty of better options than him.