Conor Jackson: Breakout or Bust?

Conor Jackson is a player with whom some owners seem to be in love.  They see potential in him and look towards him as a great sleeper pick heading into this season, either as a first baseman or as an outfielder. Personally, I have to ask: Why?

What is it that people see in Jackson that makes him so intriguing? 

First of all, his line from last season is far from inspiring:

540 At-Bats
.300 Batting Average (162 Hits)
12 Home Runs
75 RBI
87 Runs
10 Stolen Bases
.376 On-Base Percentage
.446 Slugging Percentage
.321 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Only 12 HR from an outfielder or a first baseman with little speed is not really what I am looking for.  So, does he have the potential to significantly increase that total?  He’s played in the major leagues over parts of four seasons, hitting a grand total of 44 HR over 1,525 AB.

His HR dropped last season, due in large part to his FB% declining:

• 2006—41.1 percent
  
• 2007—42.7 percent
  
• 2008—38.5 percent
  

That’s not very promising, and neither is the fact that he had only 31 doubles last season—tying him for 76th in the league. It’s not like he has been racking up the two baggers and people believe that he is suddenly going to start putting more of those over the fences.

In his minor league career, he hit just 31 HR over 1,074 AB.  That includes 333 AB in the Pacific Coast League, where he managed to hit just eight HR.

I know that he failed to hit a HR over the final two months of the season, as well as hitting just one in the months of May and June. Those are slumps that are not likely to continue, but then again, given his track record should we really expect much of a change?

Yes, he will turn 27 years old this season, but is that really enough to make one believe that he’s going to suddenly develop a power stroke?  It’s not for me, that’s for sure.

By now, he’s proven who he is, and while he may increase slightly, back to the 15-17 range, it’s hard for me to believe that he’s going to become a useful power source.

The average is nice, and he’s shown this potential in the past with a minor league average of .332. He has a great eye at the plate, with a career strikeout rate of just 12.8 percent—a number that he improved upon last season with an 11.3 percent mark.

The BABIP may be slightly on the higher side, but it really isn’t anything unreasonable.  He seems destined to post a solid average, though even a slight regression in his BABIP will result in his average falling just shy of the .300 mark.

He’s also never really shown the ability to post significant RBI or R totals. With Adam Dunn now calling Washington home and Orlando Hudson in Los Angeles he could take a more significant spot in the lineup. 

At the same time, would it be all that surprising to see him end up on the bench?

The Diamondbacks have a bit of a roster crunch, with Chad Tracy and Mark Reynolds likely to fill the corner infield spots. That means that Jackson will be moved to the OF full-time, where he will battle Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Eric Byrnes for playing time.

Yeah, it seems likely that he will be in the lineup on most days, but there could easily be a situation where he is the odd man out or at least in a platoon.  That would severely limit his value, now wouldn’t it?

With all that said, let’s take a look at what I would project for him this season:

.292 (139-476), 15 HR, 73 RBI, 70 R, 8 SB, .310 BABIP, .370 OBP, .462 SLG

Basically, I’m expecting more of the same from Jackson—far from a breakout campaign.  If you are targeting him, expecting some big time offensive production, I think you’ll be sorely disappointed.

He’s much better off as a short-term fill-in hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, as opposed to a player that you depend upon in a starting role.

Disagree?  Are you targeting Jackson on draft day?  If so, why?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM