NCAA Tournament Sleeper: The Portland State Vikings

A professor of mine once said, “Be bold with your predictions—that way people will listen.”  

Thus, it would be easy to pick St. Joseph’s or Kansas State as my sleeper.  If you do your homework, you’ll notice that outstanding teams like those have almost a coin-flip’s chance of reaching the second round and a fighting chance at a Sweet 16 berth.

No, see, it takes real moxie to side with my sleeper: the 16th-seeded Portland State Vikings.  The Vikes (can I call you that?  We hardly know each other) won the Big Sky conference tournament and face the No. 1-seeded Kansas Jayhawks. 

According to Basketball Prospectus, PSU has a scant 1.5 percent chance of upsetting the Jayhawks and a less than thrilling 0.32 percent chance of making the Sweet 16.

I even had to post a picture of the Minnesota Vikings at the top there, because there were no pictures of Portland State Vikings.  

Wait, there was one? 

OK—it’s fixed now.

The Vikings are making their first trip to the big dance, after their victory over the always bridesmaids Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. Who knew there was so much forestry in northern Arizona? 

I should tell you the Big Sky has produced a few Cinderellas previously, so they're not new to this whole upset business.  The best example of which was Weber State’s shocker over UNC in 1999.  

The Vikes feature Jeremiah Dominguez, a 5-and-a-half foot scoring machine. This way, we can all cheer “for the little guy.”  Seriously, though, Dominguez drops about 14 ppg and shoots a redonkulous 44 percent from beyond the 3-point line.  For a guy hoisting up 173 of those puppies this season, that’s some major damage.

As much as this post has possessed a quasi-facetious tone, opponents, especially Kansas, ought not take these Vikes too lightly.  PSU can be coldly efficient on the offensive end, where they net 110 points per 100 possessions.  

They shoot 40 percent from three (good for 10th in the nation) and 52 percent from two. 

If Kansas comes out sleepwalking, they could find themselves in a hole quickly.  Mid-major teams that shoot well from three can be dangerous in the first round.  One hot shooting performance can doom a major conference foe quickly.

Now, aren’t you ready to root for the little guy?

Gooooooooo Vikes!

(All stats courtesy of kenpom.com.)