30 Clubs In 30 Days: Washington Nationals

We are back on the road on our "30 clubs in 30 days" and in Washington, where we take a look at the Nationals, who are looking to get back into the NL East hunt and bounce back from a horrific season last year.

Washington was the worst team in baseball last year, not even reaching 60 wins. The Nationals struggled to an 59-102 record, the only team with under 60 wins for the season.  The Nationals won just 23 games in the second half as they struggled to finish.

This club was lousy both offensively and defensively. They only managed to score 641 runs, third worst in the majors. They tied for the third worst team batting average, hitting .251, and were next to last in the National League hitting only 269 doubles. They also posted an NL-worst OPS of .696. You can not score runs if you can not hit.

Christian Guzman (.316 AVG, 77 Runs, 35 Doubles) was the team's best hitter average-wise in an incredibly weak lineup. Ryan Zimmerman(.283 AVG, 14 HR, 51 RBI in 428 ABs) battled with injuries, but when he was in the lineup hit fairly well.

Lastings Milledge (.268 AVG, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 24 SB) showed some promise of being a quality player, and while he was healthy, Elijah Dukes (.264 AVG, 386 OBP, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 13 SB in 276 AB’s) showed that he can be a productive power bat in the coming years.

The pitching staff was not much better. Washington's pitchers produced a team ERA of 4.66, third worst in the NL, and teams hit .270 against this staff. The starting pitching was a main issue for the club, as the starters had an 4.97 ERA.

The entire pitching staff also liked to give up lots of free passes, walking 588 batters and surrendering 118 stolen bases.

The defense was not solid either, giving up 123 errors, worst in the NL. All of this adds up to a team who gave up 825 runs last year, or 5.09 runs a game.

Tim Redding (10-11, 4.95 ERA, 120 K’s) produced the most wins for the Nationals, while John Lannan (9-15, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) showed some promise at times and produced the best ERA from the starters.

John Rauch (2.98 ERA, 17 saves in 48 games) took over as closer after Chad Cordero went down with injury early on, but was traded to Arizona at the deadline.  Rookie Steven Shell(2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 50 IP) was solid in the bullpen, and Saul Rivera(3.96 ERA, 17 holds in 84 IP) and Joel Hanrahan(3.95 ERA, 93 Ks in 84.1 IP) were effective as well.  Hanrahan enters the 2009 campaign as the closer.

This team needed to get better, so let's see what the team did in the off-season:

Key Additions

Adam Dunn, 1B/OF (.236 AVG, .898 OPS, 40 HR, 100 RBI with Reds/Diamondbacks)
Scott Olsen, SP (8-11, 4.20 ERA, 113 Ks, 201.2 IP with Marlins)
Josh Willingham, OF (.254 AVG, .364 OBP, 15 HR, 51 RBI with Marlins)
Daniel Cabrera, SP (8-10, 5.25 ERA, 95 Ks with Orioles)

Key Losses

Tim Redding, SP (10-11, 4.95 ERA, 120 Ks)
Odalis Perez, SP (7-12, 4.34 ERA, 119 Ks)
Aaron Boone, INF (.241 AVG, 6 HR, 13 Doubles, 28 RBI in 232 AB’s)

Obviously, the big addition in this lineup is Adam Dunn. His presence will give the Nationals a proven power bat, though in a bigger park it will be interesting to see if Dunn puts up the usual 40 home runs he has in the past. He seemed to have no trouble in Arizona, but we will see if D.C.'s cold weather in April and September makes a difference.

Josh Willingham should be a nice contribution as well. He had some nice years in Florida, and is versatile, playing C, 3B, and OF in Florida. He is your likely starter in left, and should add even more depth to an already deep outfield.

As far as pitching goes, the Nationals hope a new setting helps Cabrera, who has always had the stuff to pitch in the majors, just not the control. Scott Olsen should also benefit from being on a new team and in a new setting.

Lets take a look at the likely pitching staff in Washington:

Rotation

John Lannan(9-15, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
Scott Olsen(8-11, 4.20 ERA, 113 Ks, 201.2 IP with Marlins)

Daniel Cabrera (8-10, 5.25 ERA, 95 Ks with Orioles)
Shawn Hill(1-5, 5.83 ERA, in 63.1 IP)

No. 5 Starter:
Jordan Zimmerman (7-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 103 Ks in AA ball)
Collin Balester (3-7, 5.51 ERA, in 80 IP)

Bullpen:
John Hanrahan, CL (3.95 ERA, 93 Ks in 84.1 IP)
Saul Rivera, SU (3.96 ERA, 17 holds in 84 IP)
Steven Shell, SU/RP (2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP in 50 IP)
Garrett Mock, RP (4.17 ERA, 46 Ks in 41 IP)
Jason Bergmann, RP (2-11, 5.09 ERA, 96 Ks in 139.2 IP)
Matt Chico, RP (6.19 ERA, 17 BB in 48 IP)

The additions of Olsen and Cabrera should improve the staff a little bit, but unless they can fulfill their potential quickly, this staff should only be a little better than 2008. This staff is young, and Washington is looking for John Lannan to keep getting better each year.

Joel Hanrahan can be a good closer, but his effectiveness will be dicated by how good the rest of the bullpen is, how good the starters are, and how long they last. The pitching staff needs to get better at not giving up big hits as they gave up 190 HR’s last year.

Lets now move to the offense and see the Nationals lineup:

Lineup

Christian Guzman, SS (.316 AVG, 77 Runs, 35 Doubles)
Lastings Milledge, CF (.268 AVG, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 24 SB)
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B (.283 AVG, 14 HR, 51 RBI in 428 ABs)
Adam Dunn, 1B (.236 AVG, .898 OPS, 40 HR, 100 RBI with Reds/Diamondbacks)
Elijah Dukes, RF (.264 AVG, 386 OBP, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 13 SB in 276 ABs)
Josh Willingham, LF (.254 AVG, .364 OBP, 15 HR, 51 RBI with Marlins)
Jesus Flores, C (.256 AVG, 8 HR, 59 RBI in 301 ABs)
Anderson Hernandez, 2B (.333 AVG, .407 OBP, 17 RBI in 81 ABs)

Bench

Austin Kearns, OF (.217 AVG, .311 OBP, 7 HR, 32 RBI in 313 ABs)
Willy Mo Pena, OF (.205 AVG, 2 HR in 195 AVG)
Willie Harris, 2B/OF (.251 AVG, .344 OBP, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 13 SB in 367 ABs)
Alberto Gonzalez, 2B/SS/3B (.347 AVG, 9 RBI in 49 ABs)
Ronnie Belliard, 2B (.287 AVG, .372 OBP, 11 HR, 46 RBI in 296 ABs)
Nick Johnson, 1B (.220 AVG, 5 HR, 20 RBI in ’08/ .290 AVG, 23 HR, 77 RBI in ’06)
Wil Nieves, C (.261 AVG, 1 HR, 20 RBI in 176 ABs)

There is a lot of potential in this lineup. The addition of Adam Dunn gives this team a legitimate power threat which should help balance out the rest of the lineup. It should be interesting to see this offense play, as they should be a dramatically better offensive club than they were last year, not only likely to have more power with an healthy Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes, but they should be able to run the bases better as well.

Another thing to look for from this lineup is the depth on the bench. When facing AL clubs, expect either Nick Johnson or Ronnie Belliard to DH. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington to dump two or three bench guys via waivers or trades during the year, as they still have a need for pitching, and they have players that teams could use. Possible trade candidates include Ronnie Belliard, Nick Johnson, Will Mo Pena, and Austin Kearns.

Outlook

This is a team that should win more games in 2009. Offensively, the Nationals should make strides, becoming more of a power team with players that do have speed as well. I do expect Adam Dunn’s HR and RBI totals to come down a little bit, but not much.

This lineup will also need Ryan Zimmerman to stay healthy. Dunn's success will partly depend on how the lineup hits around him, so the development of Zimmerman, Milledge and Dukes is important to the Nationals, for this year and beyond. They won’t be an 850 run machine, but 750-760 runs is not out of the question.

The key to this team's success will be the pitching staff. The continued development of John Lannan is huge for this staff, and Washington is hoping for consistency from Cabrera, Hill, and Olsen.

The starting pitching was the main issue last year for Washington, and if they want to win games, their starters need to get deeper into games and be more consistent. The bullpen should be fairly good, but the key for this team is their starting pitching.

Though this team has gotten better and is more talented this year, they still have a ways to go. The core of this team is very young, and well see how quickly this talent develops.

They are on the right path, but their division is a very tough division, arguably the toughest in the NL. Expect the Nationals to get better as the year goes on, but to struggle because of the youth and lack of talent of their starting pitching.

Finish - 5th, Last in the NL East

We leave Washington and go to Title Town, as we next visit the Philadelphia Phillies on our "30 clubs in 30 days" preview.