AL Central Projected Standings: Is Kansas City a Contender?

Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.

1. Cleveland Indians

Last year, Cleveland went 24-7 in Cliff Lee's starts and 57-74 in everyone else's. Will Lee provide such an asset this year?

FEIN doesn't think so, projecting Lee with a 3.67 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 184 innings, essentially regressing to his 2005 form.

In the bullpen, the Indians replaced closer Joe Borowski with Kerry Wood, and the move was backed up by FEIN—Wood's projected ERA is more than a full run better than Borowski's.

In middle relief are Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt, both of whom are projected to have an ERA below four. Betancourt blew up last year, with an ERA of 5.07 in 71 innings, but his BABIP of .323 shows that he was the product of misfortune.

On the offensive side, the Indians should hope Travis Hafner returns to his old self, and not to his 2008 performance (where his production on the field was worth minus-$3.8 million). FEIN certainly believes he can turn it around, with a projection of 20 home runs in 420 plate appearance (or 31 in the 661 PA he had in 2007) and a .895 OPS.

Grady Sizemore, with a projected .868 OPS, is one of the best hitters in the majors right now, and his projection of 26 homers and 29 stolen bases can only help that claim.

Fangraphs says that Sizemore's 33 home runs and 38 stolen bases last year earned him more than $30 million in actual value; he's a top 10 pick in fantasy leagues.

The emerging Shin-Soo Choo should also provide a boost to the Indians' lineup. Choo had a .946 OPS in 370 PA last year and proved that he was worth the playing time; FEIN gives Choo a .818 OPS for next year.

2. Detroit Tigers

Detroit's offense is one of the best in the league—on paper. 

With Miguel Cabrera, Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson, Detroit should be scoring more than five runs per game, but they are projected to score just 4.86 per game.

The Tigers do, however, sport two hitters with very high home run rates: Mike Hessman and Marcus Thames.

I've written about Hessman before; he hit 34 home runs in the minors last year, and in his major league career, Hessman has hit 42 home runs per 600 PA.

Thames, though, has hit over 40 home runs per 600 PA in the past three years, yet hasn't had over 400 PA in any of those three years. He's a solid bet for 30 or 35 homers, if he gets regular playing time, which unfortunately is unlikely.

As for pitching, FEIN doesn't believe any Tigers' pitcher will have an ERA below 4.00, with Joel Zumaya's 4.00 being the lowest. But FEIN does have Justin Verlander turning it around, with a projected 4.17 ERA, two-thirds of a point better than his 4.84 last year.

Armando Galarraga had a spectacular rookie season, going 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 178 innings, but his .247 BABIP and his poor peripherals (3.07 walks and 1.41 home runs per nine innings) show that he should decline in 2009. He will, according to FEIN, which projects him with a 4.27 ERA in 145 IP.

3. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota fared well last year, after losing Johan Santana, Matt Garza, and Torii Hunter, finishing just one game away from the playoffs.

Francisco Liriano was a cornerstone of the Twins' success. After a 2.16 ERA in 2006, Liriano was subjected to Tommy John surgery, and he came back like his old self.

Liriano started off rough, giving up 13 runs in 10 innings in his first three starts of the year, but after a two-month stint in the minors, he had a 2.05 ERA in his first 10 starts back in the majors before a rough outing to end the year.

FEIN projects a 3.87 ERA and 1.29 WHIP for Liriano, just slightly better numbers than his 2008 campaign.

Liriano is joined in the rotation by two youngsters who both had sub-4.00 ERAs last year: Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. FEIN projects them each with respectable ERAs—4.11 and 4.16, respectively—and collectively, the top three spots in the Twins' rotation are projected to have a 4.05 ERA.

Joe Nathan anchors the Twins' bullpen. Nathan's projected 2.85 ERA is fourth-best in the majors, and his 1.59 ERA in the past three years is the best among all pitchers with 150 IP in that time. Along with Nathan, the Twins' bullpen is secured by Craig Breslow and Pat Neshek, with projected ERAs both under 3.60.

The Twins' offense is led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Mauer is projected by FEIN to hit .311, third-highest in the majors, with a .840 OPS. Morneau's 112 projected RBI is also third-highest, and his projected 27 home runs and .493 slugging percentage lead the Twins.

Denard Span had 70 runs and 18 stolen bases in 93 games last year, and FEIN projects him to have 59 and 15 this year in 391 plate appearances; in a full season with 650 PA, Span would be projected to have 98 runs and 25 stolen bases.

Along with that, FEIN believes Span's .818 OPS in 2008 will regress to .798, but his slugging percentage should say nearly the same (just four points lower than last year's).

4. Kansas City Royals

The Royals went 75-87 last year, but finished the year on a 13-3 run, outscoring opponents by 54 runs (3.4 runs per game). They should continue to improve this year.

New first baseman Mike Jacobs is projected to break out, with a .824 OPS and 22 home runs in 440 PA, after an OPS of .812 along with 32 home runs in Florida. His .247 batting average last year was the lowest of his career, but FEIN thinks that he'll bounce back with a projected .268 average.

FEIN also thinks Alex Gordon will have a career year. His projected .809 OPS would be the highest of his career, and his .276 average is very optimistic, considering his career high, set last year, is .260. Gordon's 2009 season could be his breaking out party.

It's also noteworthy that the immortal Kila Ka'aihue is projected to have a .820 OPS in 29 PA.

After two seasons with sub-3.70 ERAs, Zack Greinke showed that he's the Royals' ace. FEIN is somewhat pessimistic, projecting Greinke to pitch 181 innings with a 3.86 ERA, but his 1.27 WHIP would be his highest since 2004. His projected strikeouts-per-nine rate, however, of 7.99 would be his second-highest of his career.

Second in the Royals' rotation is Gil Meche. Meche was lights out, after the All-Star break last year, going 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 90 innings. His projected 4.09 ERA is respectable, but it isn't good enough for someone who signed a five-year, $55 million contract.

At the end of the bullpen is Joakim Soria, who is coming off of a spectacular year. His 1.60 ERA and 0.86 WHIP proved that he's an elite closer, and FEIN projects him with a 2.95 ERA, fifth-lowest in the majors. Even on a 75-win team, Soria racked up 42 saves last year and is projected to have 34 on an 80-win team this year.

With such young talent, Kansas City has what it takes to win the AL Central for the first time since 1985, when they won the World Series.

5. Chicago White Sox

Power. That's the White Sox motto this year.

FEIN says the White Sox will lead the majors with 230 home runs and projects three guys to hit 27-plus homers: Jermaine Dye (30), Jim Thome (29), and Paul Konerko (27), as well as Carlos Quentin, who is projected to hit 19 in 404 PA (28 in 600 PA).

Those first three are all over 33 years of age, and it appears that the White Sox won't make the playoffs in a few years.

Second baseman Alexei Ramirez's rookie season was certainly a "Hello, world" campaign, but FEIN thinks his .290 batting average will fall to .277. Ramirez's batting eye needs some help, too; his projection of 23 walks in 482 PA gives him one of the worst rates in the majors.

The White Sox found a gem in pitcher John Danks, who went 12-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 195 innings last year. FEIN realizes that that performance came one year after a 5.50 ERA in 139 innings, and it projects Danks with a 4.09 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 182 innings.

Twenty-five-year-old Gavin Floyd also showed his talent last year, posting a 3.84 ERA in over 200 innings.

But FEIN is weary of his suspect peripherals—a 2.07 K/BB ratio (less than the league average), 1.31 homers per nine, a very low .268 BABIP last year, and 4.67 runs allowed per nine innings, showing that he was lucky in his 19 unearned runs—and projects Floyd for a 4.89 ERA, which is half a run higher than the league average ERA of 4.32.

While Chicago waits on its young pitchers to develop into stars, thirty-year-old Mark Buehrle returns for his 10th season in Chicago. In the past eight years, Buehrle has double-digit wins and over 200 innings, and as FEIN projects, a 4.09 ERA in just under 200 innings (as well as 11 wins).

Buehrle certainly has value in fantasy leagues. The 4.09 ERA may not look flashy, but in 200 innings, that's enough to bring your fantasy team's ERA down a few points.