30 Clubs In 30 Days: New York Yankees

We now move to the Bronx, where our tour of 30 clubs in 30 days goes to New York to take a look at the Yankees.

While some teams would consider an 89-73 season a good season, the Yankee’s consider it a disappointment. 89-73 doesn’t get you a World Series; in fact, in last years AL East race, it doesn’t even get you in the playoffs. They finished in third, eight games out of first place, and missed the playoffs for the fist time in 13 years.

Well, you couldn’t really blame the offense, although they didn’t score over 800 runs. The Yankee’s did score 782 runs last year while hitting .271 as a team, and showed some speed on the base paths last year, swiping 118 bases.

Derek Jeter (.300 AVG, 11 HR, 88 Runs) put up his usual stats, and Alex Rodriguez (.302 AVG, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 104 Runs, 18 SB) had another great year, though maybe not fully “A-Rod”-like. Bobby Abreu (.296 AVG, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 100 Runs, 22 SB) was a constant force as well. Jason Giambi (.247 AVG, 373 OBP, 32 HR, 96 RBI) and Johnny Damon (.303 AVG, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 95 Runs, 29 SB) also contributed.

The pitching staff, though, was average at best last year. The staff posted a team 4.28 ERA while teams hit .261 against them. The staff was effective at striking people out, posting 1141 K’s last year.

Chien-Ming Wang (8-2, 4.07 ERA in 95 IP) battled through and injury plagued season, making only 15 starts. Mike Mussina (20-9, 3.37 ERA, 150 K’s) showed that he can still pitch at 39 years young, and Andy Pettitte (14-14, 4.54 ERA, 158 K’s) may have started to show signs of wear and tear. Mariano Rivera (6-5, 1.40 ERA, 39 SV’s, 77 K’s in 70.2 IP) showed he can still close, and Joba Chamberlain (4-3, 2.60 ERA, 118 K’s in 100.1 IP) continues to show promise.

This team went through a lot of changes this offseason. Lets look at what the Yankee’s did in free agency:

Key Additions:
C.C. Sabathia, SP (17-10, 2.70 ERA, 251 K’s, .237 BAA with Indians/Brewers)
A.J. Burnett, SP (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s with Blue Jays)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.308 AVG, 33 HR, 41 Doubles, 102 Runs, 121 RBI with Braves/Angels)
Angel Berroa, INF (.230 AVG, in 226 AB’s with Royals/Dodgers)

Key Losses:
Mike Mussina, SP (20-9, 3.37 ERA, 150 K’s)
Bobby Abreu, OF (.296 AVG, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 100 Runs, 22 SB)
Jason Giambi, 1B/DH (.247 AVG, 373 OBP, 32 HR, 96 RBI)
Ivan Rodriguez, C (.276 AVG, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 10 SB, in 398 AB’s)

This team gained more than it lost this offseason. Not only did the Yankee’s get great talent off the free agent market, but the talent is relatively young. Sabathia and Teixeira are both only 28 years old, and Burnett is 32. These three could have at least four great years in them, and even more for Sabathia and Teixeira due to their age.

They will miss some of the bats, though. Teixeira is a better option, but is he enough to replace the numbers lost by Abreu and Giambi? We will see.

One thing is for sure, the starting pitching should be much better. Lets take a look at the probable pitching staff:

Rotation:
C.C. Sabathia, (17-10, 2.70 ERA, 251 K’s, .237 BAA with Indians/Brewers)
A.J. Burnett (18-10, 4.07 ERA, 231 K’s with Blue Jays)
Chien-Ming Wang (8-2, 4.07 ERA in 95 IP)
Andy Pettitte (14-14, 4.54 ERA, 158 K’s)
Joba Chamberlain (4-3, 2.60 ERA, 118 K’s in 100.1 IP)

Bullpen:
Mariano Rivera, CL (6-5, 1.40 ERA, 39 SV’s, 77 K’s in 70.2 IP)
Damaso Marte, SU (5-3, 4.02 ERA, 71 K’s in 65 IP)
Brian Bruney, SU/RP (3-0, 1.83 ERA, 33 K’s in 34.1 IP)
Jonathan Albaladejo, RP (3.95 ERA in 13.2 IP)
Jose Veras, SU/RP (5-3, 3.59 ERA, 63 K’s in 57.2 IP)
Edwar Ramirez, RP (5-1, 3.90 ERA, 63 K’s in 55.1 IP)

The rotation should be a good rotation. Their first four starters are experienced and should all be effective, and Mariano Rivera should be the closer that we are all accustomed to. With that said, there are two main questions for this staff:

1) Will Joba Chamberlain be a consistent No. 5 starter? There are other options they can plug in there (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy,), but the club wants him to have this job. He has the stuff and has pitched well when healthy. Let's see how he acts in a starters' role.

2) Will the bullpen be effective? I think this is the more pressing concern. This is what may kill them this year. They have some effective pitchers in Marte and Bruney, but Veras and Ramirez are still relatively untested. If the bullpen is effective, then this team will be successful.

From pitching to hitting, lets take a look at the probable lineup for the Yankee’s (with A-Rod healthy):

Lineup:
Johnny Damon, LF (.303 AVG, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 95 Runs, 29 SB)
Derek Jeter, SS (.300 AVG, 11 HR, 88 Runs)
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.308 AVG, 33 HR, 41 Doubles, 102 Runs, 121 RBI with Braves/Angels)
Alex Rodriguez, 3B (.302 AVG, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 104 Runs, 18 SB)
Xaiver Nady, RF (.305 AVG, 25 HR, 27 Doubles, 97 RBI)
Jorge Posada, C (.268 AVG, 3 HR, 22 RBI in 268 AB’s)
Hideki Matsui, DH (.294 AVG, 9 HR, 45 RBI in 337 AB’s)
Robinson Cano, 2B (.271 AVG, 14 HR, 35 Doubles, 72 RBI, 70 Runs)
Brett Gardner, CF (.228 AVG, 16 RBI in 127 AB’s)

Bench:
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF (.219 AVG, 24 HR, 21 Doubles, 69 RBI, 86 Runs with White Sox)
Melky Cabrera, OF (.249 AVG, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 42 Runs)
Cody Ransom, INF (.302 AVG, 13 hits in 43 AB’s)
Jose Molina, C (.216 AVG, 32 Runs in 268 AB’s)
Angel Berroa, INF (.230 AVG, in 226 AB’s with Royals/Dodgers)

Before A-Rod got hurt, this lineup looked very potent. Now that A-Rod is having surgery and is expected to be out six to nine weeks, it will be interesting to see what Brian Cashman does. The internal answer is most likely Cody Ransom, with Angel Berroa being the other option.

Personally, I expect the Yankee’s to go after a free agent rather than trade, since they are in the process of rebuilding their farm system and would like to only move prospects for bigger impact players. If the Yankees opt to trade, the most likely trade candidate is Royals INF/OF Mark Teahan. Free agent options include Mark Grudzielanek (could require moving Cano to third) or Damion Easley.

In reality though, this puts more pressure on Teixeira, Nady, and the rest of the lineup to perform, because in reality, the Yankee’s can’t replace A-Rod via trade or free agency, so it will be interesting to see how this lineup performs without A-Rod.

Another interesting story here is the CF battle between Cabrera and Gardner. Both can play the outfield well, but the question is, can they hit?

Whomever produces with the bat most will be in the lineup, but I more than likely expect a minor platoon. This may be an area where the Yankees add a CF via trade/free agency if both can't produce.


Outlook

This club got better this offseason. Any time you can add a power arms like Sabathia and Burnett while at the same time adding a big time bat like Teixeira, you’ve improved your roster. You can count on at the least 12-14 wins from Burnett and Sabathia each, and a .300/35/110 line from Teixeira.

Though they made arguably the biggest splash this offseason, they still have questions in a fairly young bullpen. This is where the biggest problem could be for the Yankees this year. Though they have a very strong rotation, their bullpen isn’t as strong as the bullpens of the Rays or the Red Sox.

It remains to be seen whether or not they can consistently get the ball to Rivera. Look for a possible trade if they need help during the season.

On top of that, when you lose the heart of your order for a month, that's something you can’t replace. How the Yankees handle this will determine whether or not they’ll be around come October.

Personally, I think that they will be in the AL East hunt, but I also think there is too much to overcome. Can A-Rod produce after he comes back from surgery? How will Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett handle New York? Will the bullpen be effective? Can Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui stay healthy? There are too many questions, and they don’t have the depth that the Red Sox have or the pitching that the Rays do. They’ll be in the playoff hunt, but I think that they’ll fall short.


Projected Finish - 3rd in the AL East, fighting for Wild Card

Next, we’ll go to the NL East, where we will start on the other side of New York. I’ll preview the Mets in the next 30 in 30.