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Atlanta Falcons: Stat Projections for Key Starters & Reserves vs. Panthers

Justin BlanchardSep 26, 2012

Coming off their dominant defeat of the San Diego Chargers last week, the Atlanta Falcons (3-0) head back to the Georgia Dome to face the Carolina Panthers (1-2) in their first divisional game of the season.

NFC South battles are always hard-fought, and the Panthers will have extra incentive to bring their best as they look to atone for last Thursday's humbling 36-7 loss to the New York Giants.

The Falcons will need big numbers from key players to ensure victory.

Here's a look at what to expect from them.

Matt Ryan

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The Matt Ryan show was in full effect for a third consecutive game last Sunday, with Ryan completing 75 percent of his 40 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns.

As he prepares to take on a Panthers defense that has allowed a combined 616 yards through the air in Weeks 2 and 3, he could easily reach similar numbers this week.

However, with the emergence of Michael Turner in last week's game, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is likely to go with a more balanced attack. 

And considering the Panthers own the league's fifth-worst rushing defense (139.3 yards per game), Koetter will be very inclined to pound the rock early and often.

That should all make for a slight dip in Ryan's numbers for this game, but look for him to continue throwing the ball as effectively as he has so far this season.

Stat Projection: 23/32, 240 yards, 1 touchdown 

Running Backs

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After Michael Turner managed just 74 yards and a meager 2.6 yards-per-carry average through the first two weeks of the season, many were left wondering whether the Burner was all burned out.

But Turner showed up to play against the Chargers, busting out for 80 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown.

On Sunday, Turner will be looking to build on that performance.

He is facing a Panthers defense that has been devoured on the ground this year, which will help his cause, as they gave up 95 rushing yards to Doug Martin, 110 to Pierre Thomas and 113 to little-known Andre Brown.

In fact, perhaps the only thing to keep Turner from reaching 100 yards this week is fellow running back Jacquizz Rodgers.

The second-year pro received his most touches of the year against the Chargers, and his role is likely to expand more as the season goes on.

But if Carolina continues to defend the run as badly as it has so far this year, both Turner and Rodgers could set season-highs in this game.

Stat Projection:

Turner: 20 carries, 90 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 catches, 12 yards 

Rodgers: 15 carries, 50 yards, 7 catches, 40 yards

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

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While the Panthers have struggled mightily against the run, their pass defense has fared much better, giving up just the 18th-most passing yards.

But that was before they faced the Falcons.

With receivers Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas set to take the field on offense, all the Panthers can do is pick their poison. 

The Falcons have distributed the ball proportionately among their receivers, and they can be expected to do the same this week.

That, coupled with an expected increase in focus on the running game, makes it unlikely a Falcon will perform to the level of Ramses Barden's nine-catch, 138-yard performance from a week ago. 

However, if anyone will get close to those numbers, it'll be Jones with his big-play ability.

Stat Projections:

Roddy White: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 1 touchdown

Julio Jones: 6 receptions, 75 yards

Harry Douglas: 3 receptions, 20 yards

Tony Gonzalez: 6 receptions, 60 yards

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Defense

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Cam Newton has thrown a lot this season, but Atlanta's toughest test on defense will be stopping the run.

Leading tacklers Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon will be leaned on heavily once again with the three-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton coming to the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

That spells trouble for the Falcons and their 24th-ranked rushing defense.

Atlanta can't forget to keep an eye on the ever-dangerous Steve Smith, either.

Ultimately though, clock control will be key for Carolina, who will want to keep the Falcons' high-octane offense off the field.

Turnovers from the defense are always welcome, but how often the Falcons can get off the field on third down could be the difference in this one.

Stat Projections:

John Abraham: 2 tackles, 2 sacks

Stephen Nicholas: 11 tackles

Sean Weatherspoon: 8 tackles

Asante Samuel: 3 tackles, 1 interception

William Moore: 6 tackles, 1 forced fumble

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