30 Clubs, 30 Days: Baltimore Orioles

Yesterday, we started our tour of 30 clubs in 30 days with the defending AL Champions, the Tampa Bay Rays. Today, we’re taking a look at another team in the AL East looking to pull off what the Rays did last year: the Baltimore Orioles.

In the process of rebuilding, the Orioles finished at the bottom of the AL East last year, with a 68-93 record. It was a long season for the Orioles, to say the least. After playing .500 ball the first half (46-48), the team struggled, only winning 22 more games and just five in September to finish the year. They also struggled against left-handed pitching, going 16-32.

The O’s offense was above average last year, scoring 782 runs. Although this team as a whole hit .260, Baltimore showed power, hitting 322 doubles and 172 homers.

There were some nice sparks of offense from this team last year. Aubrey Huff (.304 AVG, 32 HR, 108 RBI) had a resurgence to his Devil Ray days, Brian Roberts (.296 AVG, 107 runs, 40 SB) was his normal self, and Nick Markakis (.306 AVG, .406 OBP, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 106 runs) continued his development into a franchise bat.

The thing that killed it for this club, though, was its pitching. It’s hard to win games when you can’t pitch. The O’s had a team ERA of 5.13 and a WHIP of 1.56. This staff was also prone to the long ball, giving up an AL-leading 184 homers. Teams also could steal easily on this team, swiping 130 bags.

There were some bright spots in this pitching staff. Most notably, Jeremy Guthrie (10-12, 3.63 ERA, 120 K, .242 BAA, 19 quality starts) was their best pitcher and hopes to lead this staff back in the right direction. Jim Johnson (2.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 68.2 IP) showed a good arm in the bullpen, and the team looks to George Sherrill (31 saves in 37 opportunities) to close for a pitching staff desperately needing improvement.

Speaking of improvements, lets look at work the team did in the offeseason:

Key Losses:
Daniel Cabrera, SP (8-10, 5.45 ERA)
Kevin Millar, 1B/OF/DH (.234 AVG, 20 HR, 72 RBI)
Lance Cormier, RP (3-3, 4.02 ERA in 71.2 IP)
Jay Payton, OF/DH (.243 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI in 338 AB)

Key Additions:
Cesar Izturis, SS (.263 AVG, 24 SB with Cardinals)
Mark Hendrickson, P (5.45 ERA, 81 K with Marlins)
Koji Uehara, SP (6-5, 3.81 ERA, 72 K in 89.2 IP with Yomiuri Giants)
Ty Wigginton, INF/OF (.285 AVG, .350 OBP, 23 HR, 58 RBI with Astros)
Gregg Zaun, C (.237 AVG, 6 HR, 30 RBI with Blue Jays in 245 AB)
Rich Hill, SP (4.12 ERA in 19.2 IP in '08; 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 183 K in '07 with Cubs)
Adam Eaton, SP (4-8, 5.80 ERA, 57 K with Philadelphia)
John Parrish, RP (4.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP with Blue Jays)
Felix Pie, OF (former top Cubs prospect, .241 AVG, 10 RBI in 83 AB with Cubs)
Ryan Freel, OF (.298 AVG, 47 TB with Reds, averaged 30+ SB from '04-'06)

Looking at the stats, the Orioles were silent yet active this offseason. The O’s didn’t necessarily make a huge splash, but they upgraded their roster. Though they didn’t get Mark Teixeira, the did bring in Ty Wigginton, who provides a solid bat and can play the infield, and Rich Hill could be a steal if he returns to his '07 form.

Hill looks to be part of a rotation that looks like this (No. 5 spot up for grabs):

Jeremy Guthrie (3.63 ERA, 120 K, .242 BAA, 19 quality starts)
Koji Uehara (6-5, 3.81 ERA, 72 K in 89.2 IP with Yomiuri Giants)
Rich Hill (4.12 ERA in 19.2 IP in '08; 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 183 K in '07 with Cubs)
Adam Eaton (4-8, 5.80 ERA, 57 K with Philadelphia)
Brad Hennessey (1-2, 7.81 ERA, 21 K in 40.1 IP)
Mark Hendrickson (5.45 ERA, 81 K with Marlins)

Bullpen:
George Sherrill, CL (31 saves in 37 opportunities)
Jim Johnson, SU (2.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 68.2 IP)
Chris Ray, SU/RP (5-6, 4.43 ERA, 44 K in 42.2 IP in '07; 2.73 ERA, 33 saves in '06)
John Parrish, RP (4.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP with Blue Jays)
Jaime Walker, RP (6.87 ERA, 24 K)
Dennis Sarfate, RP (4.74 ERA, 86 K)
Chris Waters, RP (5.01 ERA, 33 K)

Obviously, this is a staff that got beaten badly last year. The O’s are hoping that the addition of pitchers Rich Hill and Kojy Uehara help take some of the load off a bullpen that was ravaged last year. It will be interesting to see Uehara’s transition to the MLB. If Chris Ray can return to his '06 form, the O’s may have a fairly decent end of the bullpen.

Pitching wasn’t a strength last year, but let’s look at the lineup of this team that should only get better in the years to come:

Brian Roberts, 2B (.306 AVG, .406 OBP, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 106 runs)
Adam Jones, CF (.270 AVG, 57 RBI, 21 doubles in 477 AB)
Nick Markakis, RF (.306 AVG, .406 OBP, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 106 runs)
Aubrey Huff, 1B (.304 AVG, 32 HR, 108 RBI)
Melvin Mora, 3B (.285 AVG, 23 HR, 104 RBI, 29 doubles)
Luke Scott, DH (.257 AVG, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 29 doubles)
Cesar Izturis, SS (.263 AVG, 24 SB with Cardinals)
Gregg Zaun, C (.237 AVG, 6 HR, 30 RBI with Blue Jays in 245 AB)
Felix Pie, LF (former top Cubs prospect, .241 AVG, 10 RBI in 83 AB with Cubs)

Bench:
Ty Wigginton, INF/OF (.285 AVG, .350 OBP, 23 HR, 58 RBI with Astros)
Ryan Freel, OF (.298 AVG, 47 TB with Reds, averaged 30+ SB from '04-'06)
Donnie Murphy, INF (3 HR and 13 RBI in 103 AB)
Matt Wieters, C (A and AA ball last year: .355 AVG, 27 HR, 91 RBI)

The top of this lineup can compete with any team. Brian Roberts is a solid lead-off hitter, and Markakis, Huff, and Mora did a good job getting him in last year. The key will be at the bottom of the lineup. If Izturis and Zaun can have consistent bats, and Luke Scott can become a more consistent contact guy (he’s got power), then this lineup can be dangerous.

Look out for Matt Wieters to make a splash this year. He may not be with the big league club on Opening Day, but it’s clear Baltimore wants this guy, along with Markakis, to be their franchise player. He may be the everyday catcher come May, especially if Gregg Zaun doesn’t produce with the bat early.

Another interesting story is Felix Pie getting the starting job. A former Cubs top prospect given up on, Pie gets an opportunity to prove himself an everyday big league player. If he doesn’t produce, look for Ryan Freel to get another opportunity to be an everyday player. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a platoon between the two out there, with Scott spelling once in a while.

Outlook

This team should just keep getting better on the offensive side of the ball. The top of this lineup can compete with any team in the league, and Orioles have loads of power. Baltimore’s projected three through six hitters each had over 20 HR last year (Markakis, Huff, Mora, Scott). They have also added speed with Pie and Freel. The Orioles have a good offensive nucleus for the upcoming years, and they will be able to hit with any team in the Majors this year.

Unfortunately, hitting can only take you so far. In order to win in the big leagues, you need pitching, something the Orioles didn’t have last year.

They spent big money on Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara, and they went out and traded for Rich Hill. After these two pitchers and Guthrie, they O’s don’t have much starting pitching, and their bullpen is average at best. We’ll see if Chris Ray can come back to form, but he and Jim Johnson could be trade chips sometime this season. Look for the O’s to maybe add one more pitcher, maybe a starter or long reliever, sometime this year.

Baltimore is headed in the right direction. Hitting-wise, they are very good, and should only get better. But they really need to see some improvement with the bullpen and starting rotation this year, or it could be another long year for the O’s. This probably will end up being another developmental year for Baltimore.

Finish: Fifth in the AL East

Tomorrow, we’ll travel north of the border and take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays, who look to make a run at the AL East crown.