How Much Fantasy Value Will Carlos Pena Have?

After posting the results of my keeper league team last week, there was some debate regarding my 1B, Carlos Pena. I know there are some big questions surrounding him as we head into 2009, so let’s take a look at exactly what the player who shocked everyone with a 46 HR, .282 average in 2007 could do.

First, we need to look at his 2008 season:

490 At-Bats
.247 Batting Average (121 Hits)
31 Home Runs
102 RBI
76 Runs
1 Stolen Bases
.377 On Base Percentage
.494 Slugging Percentage
.307 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The power is obviously the first number that brings about questions, given the falloff he had in the same amount of AB. His FB% actually increased, from 44.5% in ‘07 to 50.3% in ‘08, adding to the questions surrounding his decline. Couple in his decline in doubles, from 29 to 24, and the questions increase.

The answer is his drastic decline in his HR/FB, from 29.1% to 18.8%, a much more realistic number. It still ranked him 18th in the league, but considering his prior years, it could easily be replicated:

• 2004 - 18.2%
• 2005 - 24.7%

That instantly puts him back in the range of 30-35 HR, with the upside potential to reach 40 once again. That certainly makes him a usable option, but let’s dive into the other numbers.

He’s the main man in the middle of one of the most talented lineups in baseball. He’s going to have guys like B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria helping to set the table, with Pat Burrell now in place to offer protection, meaning a huge season could be in order. 

He’s been over 100 RBI for two years running and I don’t see any reason to believe that he’s going to fall short in ‘09.

The runs scored should also rebound a bit, though it’s unlikely that he’s going to come close to the 99 he posted in ‘07. Burrell presence will help immediately, but that’s not the only factor at play here. We need to look at his OBP, which dipped from his .411 in 2007.

The walks did decline, but not significantly, from 103 to 96. The fact that he walks that much alone is going to help him score at least 85 runs, in my opinion.

The decrease in OBP came courtesy of his drop in average, back in line with his career number. The BABIP is believable, and not the culprit here. It’s his strikeout rate:

• 2007 - 29.0%
• 2008 - 33.9%

That equated to an increase of 24 K’s, which helped his average drop from usable to tough to stomach. Unfortunately, his .247 is in-line with his career mark, at .251. Can he return to the hope he provided owners in ‘07?

He was no luckier in ‘08 then he was in ‘07 (when he posted a .305 BABIP), so I would say that there is some hope.  If he can get his strikeout rate down, even just a little bit, it is going to go a long way in helping his average get back to where it was.

I wouldn’t expect him to get back to .282, but a number in the .260-.270 range seems very realistic.  It would certainly go a long way in making him valuable to owners.

He did suffer a broken finger, which cost him time in June, but had no affect on his production.  He showed plenty of power in the second half, and actually had a better average.

With all that said, let’s take a look at what I’d expect in 2009:

.267 (139-520), 37 HR, 109 RBI, 87 R, 2 SB, .309 BABIP, .390 OBP, .535 SLG

Maybe I’m being a little bit overly optimistic, but there is nothing in his decline that makes me think that he can’t rebound, at least a little bit. For this projection, I pegged him with a K rate of 29.42 percent (153 K’s) and a walk rate of 16.26 percent (101 walks).

Are the strikeouts too low?  Perhaps, but I don’t think his remarkable 2007 season was all smoke and mirrors. At 31-years old (he’ll turn 31 in May), I expect him to be a very good 1B option once again. Is he my top choice?  Absolutely not. 

I’d much rather have a Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez or one of the top options available.  When that top group is off the board, however, he is a very appealing option with a lot of upside power potential.

What does everyone else think?  Is he a player you’d target or do you expect a drastically worse season then I am projecting?

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