30 Clubs, 30 Days: Tampa Bay Rays

Ok. I know the MLB network has its show 30 Clubs in 30 Days, and no I don't work for them, but I did think of that title before they came out with the show; so I think I'm still going to use it.

Over the next 30 days, I will be previewing each team, giving an inside look to each team, its possible rotation, lineup, and where they will finish.

Today, we will look at the biggest surprise of last season, a team that has changed the way that baseball looks at them, no longer as bottom feeders, but as title contenders.

Today, we look at the Tampa Bay Rays.

Last season the Rays shocked the baseball world, winning the tough AL East outright, finishing with an impressive 97-65 record, and reaching the World Series as well as beating out the Boston Red Sox in a very exciting 7 game ALCS series.

The thing that got them there was pitching.

Last year the Rays staff had a 3.82 ERA team average, third best in the majors, with a .246 BAA (batting average against). This staff was complete, from the starting rotation to the bullpen, and that's what truly carried them.

James Shields (14-8, 3.56 ERA) led a rotation that was one of the best in baseball, with an effective bullpen led by Troy Percival (4.53 ERA, 28 Saves) and Dan Wheeler (3.18 ERA, 13 Saves).

The Rays only scored 774 runs last year while batting 260. as a team, ninth in the AL. The emergence of stellar 3B rookie Evan Longoria (.272 AVG, 27 HR, 85 RBI) helped solidify a lineup with Carlos Pena(.247 AVG, 31 HR, 102 RBI) and Carl Crawford (.273 AVG, 25 SB).

This lineup did have a problem with strikeouts last year, striking out 1224 times, 2nd to Oakland’s 1226, but were a terror on the base paths, leading the MLB in stolen bases with 142.

Key Losses:
Cliff Floyd, OF/DH (.286 AVG, 11 HR, 39 RBI in 246 AB’s)
Rocco Baldelli, OF (.263 AVG, 4 HR, 13 RBI in 80 AB’s)
Trever Miller, RP (4.15 ERA, 11 Holds in 43.1 IP)
Eric Hinske, OF/1B (.247 AVG, 20 HR, 60 RBI)
Edwin Jackson, SP (14-11, 4.42 ERA, 108 SO)

Key Additions:
Pat Burrell, OF/DH (.250 AVG, 33 HR, 33 Doubles, 86 RBI w/ Philadelphia)
Jason Isringhausen, RP (Minor League Deal, 5.70 ERA last year, but 30 plus saves and average 2.76 ERA the previous 4 seasons)
Joe Neslon, RP (2.00 ERA, 60 SO in 54 IP)
Lance Cormier, RP (4.02 ERA in 71.2 IP, possible long reliever/spot starter)
Gabe Kapler, OF (.301 AVG, 38 RBI in 229 AB’s, can play all OF/pinch hitter)
Brian Shouse, RP (2.81 ERA, 15 Holds in 51.1 IP)
Matt Joyce, OF (.252 Avg in 252 AB’s w/ Tigers)
Adam Kennedy, 2B (Minor League deal, .280 AVG, 42 Runs, 17 Doubles in 339 AB’s in St. Louis)

Though the Rays lost some players, it seems that they have filled the void with the signings through free agency, most notably Pat Burrell. Burrell will provide more power, but could hinder them when it comes to strikeouts. Although he walked 102 times last year, he struck out 136 times as well.

The Rays made sure their bullpen was stocked. They will have good depth once again on the pitching staff. Here is the Rays projected pitching staff:

Starters:
James Shields, (14-8, 3.56 ERA, 160 K’s, 1.15 WHIP)
Scott Kazmir, (12-8, 3.49 ERA, 166 K’s, 1.27 WHIP)
Matt Garza, (11-9, 3.70 ERA, 128 K’s, 1.24 WHIP)
Andy Sonnanstine, (13-9, 4.38 ERA, 124 K’s, 1.29 WHIP)
David Price, (Minor League (all levels last year) - 12-1, 2.30 ERA, 109 K’s, pitched in relief in postseason well last year)

Bullpen:
Troy Percival, CL (4.53 ERA, 28 Saves)
Dan Wheeler, SU (3.18 ERA, 13 Saves)
J.P. Howell, RP (2.22 ERA, 92 K’s in 89.1 IP)
Grant Balfour, RP (1.54 ERA, 82 K’s in 58.1 IP)
Joe Neslon, RP (2.00 ERA, 60 SO in 54 IP)
Brian Shouse, RP (2.81 ERA, 15 Holds in 51.1 IP)
Chad Bradford, RP (2.12 ERA in 59.1 IP)

This pitching staff is good, and with depth like an Jason Isringhausen or a Lance Cormier that can fill in, the Rays should feel confident handing the ball over to their bullpen.

If the Rays are to be successful like they were last year, the young pitching of the Rays must continue to be dominant. That is what carried this team to the playoffs and through the postseason.

That said, lets look at the teams projected lineup:

Akinori Iwamura, 2B (.274 AVG, .349 OBP, 91 Runs, 30 Doubles)
B.J. Upton, CF (.273 AVG, 383 OBP, 85 Runs, 44 SB, 37 Doubles)
Carlos Pena, 1B (.247 AVG, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 24 Doubles, 166 K’s)
Evan Longoria, 3B (.272 AVG, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 31 Doubles in 448 AB’s)
Carl Crawford, LF (.273 AVG, 25 SB, 10 Triples in 443 AB’s)
Pat Burrell, DH (.250 AVG, 33 HR, 33 Doubles, 86 RBI with Philadelphia)
Dioner Navarro, C (.295 AVG, .349 OBP, 54 RBI, 27 Doubles)
Jason Bartlett, SS (.286 AVG, 20 SB, 25 Doubles)
Gabe Gross, RF (.238 AVG, .336 OBP, 13 HR)

Utility Hitters:
Willy Aybar,  INF/DH (.253 AVG, 10 HR, 33 RBI in 324 AB’s)
Ben Zobrist, OF/SS (.253 AVG, .339 OBP, 12 HR, 10 Doubles, 30 RBI)
Matt Joyce, OF (.252 Avg in 252 AB’s w/ Tigers)
Gabe Kapler, OF (.301 AVG, 38 RBI in 229 AB’s, can play all OF/pinch hitter)

This lineup has the potential to be a great lineup, but like I said earlier, strikeouts hinder this club; as they were second in the AL last year in K’s with 1224. They only hit .260 as a team last year, and only scored 774 runs. If the team can cut down on the strikeouts, and make contact on those two-strike pitches, then this lineup can become dangerous.

The Rays have some of the best speed in the majors, leading the MLB in SB with 142. They also have hitting depth on the bench. I expect some sort of platoon between Gross, Zobrist, and Joyce in RF, with Kapler and Aybar being the teams main pinch hitters.

Lets not forget about Adam Kennedy (2B, .280 AVG, 42 Runs, 17 Doubles in 339 AB’s in St. Louis) either. He provides veteran infield depth, and has a shot of making the big league club.

Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays made a mid-season move to grab another outfield bat, and likely one that makes consistent contact.


Outlook

The Rays have the team to do what they did last year. The pitching staff should only get better, especially if David Price continues to get better at the pace he is going. Price is the future of the Rays staff, a staff that is very young and talented. If Scott Kazmir stays healthy, along with the continued development of Price, then this staff could be the best in the majors.

The bullpen should also continue to pitch with dominance, and once again has great depth. Jason Isringhausen could be a steal at a low price, which the Rays could use as a trade chip. If you want to look at a good pitching staff from top to bottom, look at the Rays.

The question will be the hitting. The Rays have the talent to hit, and hit well. In a division that just got tougher, with the Red Sox and Yankee’s adding lots of good pitching this offseason, it will be interesting to see how the Rays bats fair. If they cut down on the strikeouts, then this team has a very good chance of winning the AL East again.

I believe that the Rays will contend again, but this is going to be a different season for them. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, but at the same time, I don’t think that they will be able to overcome the Red Sox and their pitching upgrades of John Smoltz, Brad Penny, and a young deep bullpen in Boston.

If the Rays get in this year, it will be through the Wild Card. This team will still be fun to watch and it will be an interesting three team race this year.


Finish - 2nd in the AL East, possible Wild Card team.

Tomorrow, I’ll take a look at the Baltimore Orioles, a team looking to bounce back and make a statement this year.