Will a One-Loss Team Bust the BCS in 2009?

If you have read my stuff before, you may know I talked about this before. I just wanted to write about it again, this time in the pre-season instead of the middle of it like last time.

So far in the history of the BCS, there have been four teams from non-BCS automatic qualifying conferences to earn BCS bids. Utah in 2004 and 2008, Boise State in 2005 and Hawaii in 2007. Each of these teams was undefeated.

The 2008 season was a banner year for the non-BCS teams. In the final BCS standings Utah was No. 6, Boise State No. 9, TCU No. 11, BYU No. 16, and Ball State No. 22. That’s five ranked teams from the non-BCS conferences.

Utah was of course the big winner, being the highest-ranked team.

The team that stood out to me, though, was TCU.

Had Utah lost a couple and Boise State lost just one, TCU would have gone on to the BCS as a two loss non-BCS conference team.

The rules for the BCS are:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or,

B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking in the final BCS standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year.

If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be in the pool of teams eligible for selection by the bowls as at-large teams.

That’s right, a two-loss team.

Nowhere in the rules does it state a team from these conferences needs to be undefeated. That has been a belief, but not the reality.

Looking ahead to 2009, here are the teams that could do it.

Boise State

Opening the season with Oregon would be the most likely place they pick up an early loss. If they do but manage to go through the rest of their schedule without a loss, they would be in the running for a BCS bowl with one early loss.

BYU

Another team that opens the season big. BYU will travel to Oklahoma in week one. If they lose this one but go on to win the Mountain West, they could work their way into a BCS bowl. If they manage to win, they still have Florida State a couple weeks later.

Utah

The early test for the Utes is a trip to Oregon. They also have Louisville at home. Just like BYU, if they want any chance of making a BCS bowl, they have to win at least one of these.

TCU

The Horned Frogs must travel to the East coast two times in two weeks. The schedule opens with a trip to Virginia, followed by a home date with Texas State, then a trip to Clemson to close out September.

These are the only teams I could foresee starting the season high enough in the rankings that one loss wouldn't completely destroy their chances of a BCS bowl game.

I don't expect that a two loss team will find itself in this position very often but it opens the door tha a one loss team could very easily make it in to a BCS bowl.