Fantasy Baseball Draft Preparation: Third Base

Once a position with a plethora of fantasy stars, third base has now become a very shallow, but top heavy position.

Wright and A-Rod will go among the top five overall picks, but after that the pickings get pretty slim fast.

You have a few young guys ready to get their shot at the majors, but a lot of third base is veterans who are either on the back side of their careers, or have a long history of injury problems.

It will likely be a source of indigestion for many fantasy players, so if you miss out on one of the top few studs, don’t worry, other guys in your league feel the same way you do.

Now that you have in your mind who you would like to pick, the list below will give you a good idea of where to expect that player to be selected.

Round 1

If you got points for drama and off the field transgressions, Alex Rodriguez would hands-down be the number one pick in all drafts. Fortunately, for fantasy players, the guy is as good on the field as he is questionable off of it.

A-Rod certainly has himself in quite a position now that he has admitted to steroid use, and one has to wonder how he is going to handle it.

Hopefully he will handle this pressure far better than he has the pressure of the playoffs since coming to the Yankees. The good thing about Rodriguez is even his off years are pretty darn good.

In the last 10 years, his batting average hasn’t been below .285, homers haven’t been below 35, RBIs have been at least 103, and he has stolen at least 15 bases in every season but one. Rodriguez had one of his “off” years last season, but he was still among the top performers in fantasy.

There are some question marks of how he will perform given the added pressure, especially if he gets off to a poor start. I’ve seen A-Rod go anywhere from first overall to fifth, and even with the steroid problems you still should expect the same draft position.

Given the fact that he isn’t known as the strongest guy mentally, perhaps you should pass on him this year. However, it is also likely that he focuses entirely on baseball and is able to keep all the distractions out and wins the MVP.

There is nothing wrong with picking David Wright in front of Alex Rodriguez, but so far he is still going a few picks later. There isn’t much to say about Wright that everyone doesn’t already know.

Wright is a stud of the highest order, and has been one of the most consistent players in all of baseball. In his four full seasons, Wright has never hit below .300, he has never hit less than 26 home runs, never driven in less than 100 RBI, and has stolen at least 15 bases each year.

He will never have the huge 50 homer season that others might have, but you can pencil in Wright’s stats at the beginning of every year and he never disappoints. He is one of the safest picks, and you can expect to see Wright selected anywhere from the second overall pick to the fifth pick.

If he lasts any longer than that he is an amazing steal. Wright gives you great value at any of those selections and should be an elite player again.

Round 2

There was so much hype surrounding the arrival of Evan Longoria that no one that he could possibly live up to the expectations, but if you really look at his numbers you will see that he surpassed what anyone could have predicted.

Longoria could stand to get his batting average higher than the .272 he hit in 2008, but he also hit 27 home runs and drove in 85 runs. I know what you are thinking. Those are good numbers, but they aren’t that great. But you have to remember two things.

First, the Rays held Longoria in the minors to start the season until April 12 so he missed some time there. He was also hit in the hand in early August which cost him another month of the season. So, all in all, Longoria missed 40 games of the season.

Can you imagine what his line would look like with another 40 games? 35 home runs? 105 RBI? Now also remember that the kid was a rookie and wasn’t playing for a team no one was paying attention to.

Did anyone get more publicity last year than the cinderella Rays? The kid was consistent, he did it in the clutch, and he got World Series experience all in his first year.

The sky is the limit for Mr. Longoria and he has one of the brightest futures of anyone in baseball. In just his second season he is already worthy of a second round pick.

Round 3

If you draft Aramis Ramirez you can pretty much count on two things. First, that he will only play 130-140 games in a season. Second that he will come close to, or surpass, 30 home runs and 100 RBI.

Ramirez is a great option at third base because he is solid at three categories. Besides the power numbers, he also usually hits between .290-.310. He is also one of the rare power hitters of this time that doesn’t strike out much.

If you look at his career numbers his runs scored have followed a strange pattern. I know no one drafts based on the “runs” category, but since 2003 his runs scored have gone from somewhere in the 70s one year, up to the 90s the next, and back to the 70s again.

Unfortunately, for those who will draft him this year, he scored 97 runs in 2008. He will turn 31 during the season, which isn’t old, but these nagging injuries that he has suffered over the years are bound to start catching up with him eventually.

Drafting him in the third might be one round too soon in my opinion, but he has been a fairly consistent contributor and should be again in 2009.

Round 5

Ah, Chipper Jones, what you could be if you could ever stay healthy a full season. Jones has missed between 30 and 60 games in each of the past five seasons, making him one of the more frustrating players to own in fantasy baseball.

He lures you in with his talent, and then breaks your heart with his inability to stay on the field. Jones can still produce, as evidenced by the NL batting title that he won in 2008.

However, Chipper seems to be going through somewhat of a makeover. For years he was a 30+ homer guy, but his batting average was in the .290s to .310s. In the last four seasons his homers have dropped to the mid to low 20s, but his batting average has jumped to the .330s to .350s.

If you draft Jones, be prepared to have someone that you feel comfortable plugging into your starting lineup for a month or two during the year because history shows you are going to need it.

Even though he will turn 37 shortly after the season starts, Jones should still bring you some good numbers. Is he worthy of a fifth round pick? I think that there will still be healthier options available, but given the state of the position, he still has value.

The first drop off in talent occurs here. Yeah, I know, that was fast. Even Aramis and Chipper could have been excluded, but even with their injury histories, their stats are solid.

Truthfully, Wright and Rodriguez are a class by themselves, but the other three certainly belong in the upper echelon. Once you get past the first five picks at third, you are starting to roll the dice.

Round 6

Chris Davis will be the starting first baseman for the Texas Rangers, but he will still be third base eligible for this season. Davis is all the rage for those who like young players, as he joined the majors in late June but was still able to pound out 17 homers and drive in 55 runs.

If he had kept up that pace over an entire season, look out, you’ve got a potential stud on your hands. There are many risks, however, in just assuming he would have kept that pace up.

Davis looks like the goods, but he had never played above AA ball, so he still has plenty of work to do. He has much more value to your team as a third baseman given the lack of depth at the position, but he is still one of the bigger wild cards of 2009.

Garrett Atkins‘ owners have watched his batting average, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and hits decrease over the past three seasons, while his strike outs have increased.

Atkins will be the starting third baseman heading into the season, but his draft stock has to be at an all-time low. His drop in production is complicated by the fact that he has hot hitting prospect Ian Stewart hot on his heels.

While there is a decent amount of risk with picking Atkins, he is one of the last consistent power hitters at third base. After Atkins comes off the board, the question marks get more frequent and bigger.

This draft position might be a little early for Atkins, but if you wait for one of the players past Atkins it gets scarier and scarier by the round.

Round 7

Chone Figgins has watched his statistics erode over the past four seasons which, of course,  is a concern. Although some of it can be attributed to injury, Figgins is getting close to becoming a single category contributor.

His batting average is just that….average, as he has generally been in the .275-.290 range in his career. He has only scored over 100 runs once in his career, and he offers almost no power. 

Now, Figgins’ impact in that one category, stolen bases, is even coming into question. In the past four seasons, his steals have gone from an impressive 62 down to an average 34.

Not only have his steals taken a rapid decline, but he also gets caught stealing an awful lot, as he has been caught at least ten times in five straight seasons.

Figgins stock should be dropping, but by this draft position, it doesn’t seem like fantasy players are still remembering what he did a few years ago. 

If you have a lack of speed on your team he is worth a pick, but just be wary of falling production and games played.

Although he still will be shortstop eligible this season, Michael Young will be the full time third baseman for the Rangers going forward thanks to rookie Elvis Andrus. Young used to be a perennial batting title contender, and a 20/100 guy.

However, his statistics have been slowly decreasing, while others at his position continued to improve. Young failed to record 200 hits and a .300 average for the first time in six years in 2008, and his power numbers continued to erode.

I don’t see anyway that you could pick Michael Young at this point of the draft, and to be honest, I don’t know how much faith that I have at all in him in 2009.  If he’s not even able to hit .300 anymore, how much value does a guy who only hits 12 homers and drives in 80 runs have?

Round 8

Ryan Zimmerman spent just 67 games in the minor leagues after being drafted out of college, and he instantly became a fantasy darling.

In his first two seasons he didn’t disappoint as he averaged hitting 22 homers and 100 RBI, while hitting .274. 2008 was a bitter pill for fantasy owners to swallow as Zimmerman lost 56 games and about half of his power numbers due to a shoulder injury.

You can expect him to return to his .285 average, 24 homers and 100 RBIs that he had the previous two seasons, but the only reason he goes here is because of the position that he plays.

You can get similar production out of a guy like Brad Hawpe 40 picks later, but given the lack of stars at third he is decent value in this round.

Round 9

In his third full season as the Reds’ starting third baseman, Edwin Encarnacion’s power numbers took a good step forward as he went from 16 to 26 homers. Unfortunately, his batting average took a significant step back from .289 all the way down to .251.

Given his minor league numbers, it would be wise to expect the power coming down a little bit, and his average to go back up some.

Throughout his career he always hit between .275 and .300 so it would be surprising to see his average stay in the .250s. Encarnacion has never been a guy that I have ever had much confidence in, and I would only draft him if he was still available several rounds later.

Round 12

Jorge Cantu burst on the fantasy scene in 2005 with a stellar 28 homer and 105 RBI season from second base. The whole fantasy world fell in love.

The love turned to hate like so many bitter divorces after Cantu’s statistics were cut by basically one half the following year. Cantu was revitalized in Florida and had another breakout season.

He set a career high with 29 homers and drove in 95 runs with a respectable .277 average, which went along with a move to 3rd base. I have much less faith in Cantu repeating his statistics because of the rest of his career.

Outside of these two great years and one nice year in the minors, Cantu rarely showed exceptional power that would suggest that he is a 30 home run hitter.

It is a big risk to expect a repeat performance from Cantu, and I suggest drafting a back up at third in case he is unable to do it again.

Here is the second talent drop. At this point you are getting more question marks and stomach discomfort. Perhaps Adrian Beltre belongs in the group above, but by his draft position it is apparent fantasy players don’t put much stock in him.

After the pick of Cantu, you are getting guys that most wouldn’t want in their everyday starting lineups, although there are a few sleepers in there.

Alex Gordon, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mat Gamel, Ian Stewart, Dayan Viciedo, and even Mark Reynolds do have a chance to surprise you. Or they could fall short of expectations or not play every day. If you are picking from the list below…..good luck!

Round 14

After an incredible 2006 season at AA, the fantasy world was ready for Alex Gordon. Unfortunately for all of those who invested high draft picks on him, he has barely surpassed his one season of minor league production in his two years in the majors.

Gordon has been a colossal disappointment to this point, and many fantasy players have lost hope that he will ever live up to his enormous potential.

Given his abilities, you would think that it is just a matter of time before he turns it around and is able to make good on the 25/25 projections that were attached to his name when he arrived in the major leagues.

I wouldn’t invest on that hope in this round, but if he is still available later on in the draft he is worth a try.

Round 16

Ever since 2004, when he hit 48 homers and drove in 121 runs (can you say contract year?), Adrian Beltre has been unable to even come close to repeating that production. It isn’t that he’s been horrible, he’s averaged 25 homers and about 85 RBI, so he gets a little bit of a bum rap as a total bust.

If you can grab Beltre at this point of the draft you are definitely getting good value, but I would be sure that the rest of my roster is very strong if I were to count on Beltre as my starting third baseman.

Once one of the brighter young power hitters earlier in the decade, Hank Blalock is now on the verge of fantasy irrelevance. From 2003-2005 Blalock hit at least 25 homers and drove in at least 90 runs.

In the last two years, Blalock has been unable to play more than 65 games in a season, hit more than 12 home runs, or drive in more than 38 runs.

To believe that Blalock will all of a sudden be able to stay healthy is a fool’s bet, and one I wouldn’t be willing to make. I would stay away from Blalock at all costs.

Melvin Mora found the fountain of youth somewhere in 2008 and had his best season since 2005. Mora hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBI. So, the million dollar question is can Mora repeat these numbers again?

Anything is possible, but Mora just turned 37 years old and has had a career filled with injuries. To expect similar production again one year later would be ill advised. I would be more apt to expect statistics similar to his 2006 season when he hit 16 homers and drove in 83 runs.

Although he played well enough to have a starting spot on fantasy rosters last year I wouldn’t want him to be any more than a bench player.

Round 20

Mark Reynolds is the second coming of Adam Dunn. He will hit you a boat load of home runs, but he will also strike out a ton, and hit for a subpar average. In his first full season in 2008, Reynolds hit just .239, hit 27 homers, drove in 97 runs, but struck out a major league record 204 times.

You can expect similar numbers again in 2009, however, he did steal 11 bags last year and that would seem to be a stat that you shouldn’t count on seeing again.

Just given the fact that the guy can easily hit 30 homers makes him a great chance to take, especially this late in your draft. I don’t think I would want him to be my everyday starter, but there is certainly room for him as a utility player or on my bench.

Later Rounds or Undrafted

Casey Blake (LAD); Troy Glaus (STL) injured; Ian Stewart (COL); Mike Lowell (BOS); Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD); Joe Crede (MIN); Bill Hall (MIL); Dayan Viciedo (CWS); Mat Gamel (MIL); Andy LaRoche (PIT); Josh Fields (CWS); Scott Rolen (TOR);