How Shelby Miller Will Be Cardinals' Difference-Maker in NL Wild Card Race

As Major League Baseball enters the final month of the 2012 season, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves eight games back of the National League Central-leading Cincinnati Reds, with a tenuous, half-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers for the second wild-card spot.

With the expansion of the active roster from 25 to 40 players on September 1, the team has announced that it will recall its top-pitching prospect, Shelby Miller, before Tuesday's game following the conclusion of Triple-A regular season.

Less than two months ago, it seemed highly doubtful that Miller would be a September call-up, as the 6’3”, 195-pound right-hander owned a 4-8 record, 6.17 ERA, and .291 opponent batting average, with 90 strikeouts, 43 walks and 17 home runs allowed in 77.1 innings for Triple-A Memphis.

However, Miller’s second half has been an entirely different story; he rediscovered the ability that made him the No. 4 prospect headed into the 2012 season.

In his 10 starts following the All-Star break, he went 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .217 batting average. More importantly, Miller recorded 70 strikeouts while issuing only seven walks in 59.1 innings.

He was especially dominant in August when he posted a 5-1 record and 2.89 ERA with 53 strikeouts and four walks in a little over 37 innings.

Here is what in Miller’s scouting report when I ranked him as the No. 23 prospect in Prospect Pipeline’s Midseason Top 50 Prospects:

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Hailing from a Texas high school, the Cardinals selected Miller with the 19th-overall selection on the 2009 MLB First-Year Player Draft. He has an excellent pitcher’s frame at 6'3" and 195 pounds; however, concern developed after he showed up to spring training out of shape. He’s also been more of an upper-body pitcher, relying on his pure arm strength rather than utilizing his lower half. So any additional weight under those conditions is always somewhat disconcerting.

Miller typically throws a heavy 93-97 mph fastball with arm-side run that generates a healthy mixture of swing-and-misses and weak contact. For his age and experience, he’s always possessed above-average control the pitch to both sides of the plate.

To complement his heater, Miller throws two above-average off-speed pitches: a sharp, downer curve and a fading changeup. He has already shown the ability to work deep into games while sustaining his velocity and has a frame built for innings.

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As the Cardinals fight for one of the two wild-card spots—it will be difficult to catch the Reds, but then again, nothing can be ruled out after last season—Miller will work out of the bullpen, according to General Manager John Mozeliak.

While Jason Motte has once again excelled at closing games, getting to him has been the problem as the Cardinals bullpen owns 4.04 ERA this season.

As a team, Cardinals pitchers posted a 4.00 ERA in August over 265.2 innings, this following a 2.70 ERA in July. Over the last 14 games, they own a 5.59 ERA and a 1.514 WHIP while opposing hitters are batting .296.

Miller is arriving at the right time both on a personal level, at the high point of his 2012 campaign and in terms of what he can offer the team’s bullpen.

He’ll likely serve as the mid-inning, mop-up guy for the time being, but a start or two later in the month seems like a possibility. Given Miller’s awful first half of the season, I never imagined that I’d be saying this, but he’s earned it.