MLB Fantasy Draft Preparation: Shortstop

Over the years, shortstop has been a position in transition.  Back in the late 90s, it was the black hole of your roster.  Outside of Alex Rodriguez, there were only a couple other solid shortstops in the league.  Someone always ended up with a player like Omar Vizquel, who was known for his glove not his bat. 

A golden age followed where shortstops started to become power hitters with guys like Miguel Tejada, and now we have a few elite options. After that, we have a talent drop off where you are not sure what you are going to get.  There are eight to 10 solid players, so everyone usually ends up with a decent player, a statement you could not make 10 years ago. Now, the top three shortstops are some of the best players in fantasy baseball and will most likely go in round one, but after that, there are question marks attached to everyone.  

The following is a list of where you can expect each player to be picked to help you plan your draft strategy.

Round One

In my opinion, Hanley Ramirez should be the No. 1 overall pick in your draft. There are several worthy candidates, but Ramirez brings you a combination of skills that you cannot get from other players. His power continues to increase, and it will likely continue to increase due to his recently added muscle.

His batting average is around .300; he has stolen 35-50 bases each year; and he has scored 120 runs in each of his three seasons. His RBI total is the one drawback in drafting Ramirez, but with all of the positives and the fact that he plays shortstop, Ramirez should not only be the first pick at his position, but of the whole draft as well.

Jose Reyes will offer you stolen base numbers that few can match. He has averaged nearly 65 steals over the past four seasons, including a high of 78 in 2007. The thing that separates Reyes from other guys who are capable of stealing 60+ bases is that he can actually help you some in other categories.

He scores well over 100 runs every year, hits nearly .300 every season, and will pop out 15+ homers. There has been talk that he might be moved to third in the batting order, but that just does not seem to be logical. Reyes will be a No. 5 or No. 6 pick in most drafts, and that is where he belongs.

After going 30/40 and capturing the NL MVP, Jimmy Rollins took a giant step back in 2008. He missed 25 games, his average dropped 20 points, his home run total dropped by 20, and his RBI were down by 35.

He was still a thief on the base paths, as he had a career-high 47 stolen bases. So, I have one  question: Was his statistical drop due to the ankle injury or diminished skills. At just 30-years-old, it is hard to believe that he has lost the skills that made him an All-Star and MVP.

More than likely, Rollins’ numbers will take a significant bounce back towards his 2007-2008 stats. Expecting him to get back to 30 home runs might be a bit of a pipe dream, but a .280/23/80/39 line seems like a realistic goal. I would wait until early to middle second round to draft him, but given the lack of depth at shortstop it would not be the worst advice to take him here.

Round Four

Although he was a second baseman last year, Alexei Ramirez will be the starting shortstop for the White Sox this season. He took the fantasy world by storm in the second half of 2008, and now Alexei Ramirez is shooting up draft boards in 2009. The “Cuban Missile” brings a rare combination of speed and power, and he even hits near .300.

This is not a fly-by-night guy who is going to fade in his second season, Ramirez almost started last year in the majors, and now we all know why. Once he became a starter he never looked back, as Ramirez was on his way to a 21-homer, 13-steal season in just 136 games played (and not all of them as a starter). Alexei is one of the most debated players in fantasy this offseason, but take it from me, he will not disappoint you if you draft him around the fourth round.

The first drop off in talent happens here. Obviously, Alexei Ramirez does not bring you as much as Hanley Ramirez, but those first four picks are all solid selections. The next group carry a few more question marks, but they can still be solid members of your team.

Round Six

Rafael Furcal was being talked about as an early-season MVP before back surgery cost him all but the final four games of the season. You cannot put too much stock into his 2008 super start. Furcal is 31 years old, so it is not like he is some young guy whose stats should improve. He is what he is, and he certainly would have come back to Earth if he did not get injured. He is still a good option at shortstop, however, as his career averages are .280/12/50 with around 32 stolen bases.

Round 8

Stephen Drew’s stats have been steadily climbing over his three professional seasons. Drew has one of the sweetest swings in all of baseball, and it is just a matter of time before he is considered one of the few best shortstops in the entire league. You can expect his 2008 numbers (.291/21/67) to increase across the board. Drew will be drafted somewhere in the eighth round, but you can bet that if you pick him, you will get better than eighth round value out of him.

Round 9

This one I do not quite understand, but Derek Jeter is still being selected in the ninth round. Jeter will be 35 years old in June and his batting average, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and runs scored have all dropped for three consecutive seasons. Jeter is still worthy of being a starting shortstop on your team, but those days appear to be drawing to a close.

It certainly looks as though his draft position is based more on his name and reputation than on his production over the past few years. I would rather take a young guy on the rise like Drew or Tulowitzki than one of the old guard like Jeter.

After an amazing rookie year, Troy Tulowitzki shot up draft boards prior to the 2008 season. Now, after a year filled with inconsistencies and injuries, he is falling back down. Tulowitzki had multiple stints on the DL last year, and even when he was in there, he was not very effective.

But the guy has a lot of talent and a lot of heart, and that is not debatable. To expect his rookie season stats again in 2009 might not be realistic, but I would be willing to bet that he gets close to them. He will not also outperform Jeter and be among the top five at the position.

Outside of the top few options, Jhonny Peralta offers you the best power potential at the position. Outside of one horrible year, Peralta has been a pretty consistent producer at the shortstop position, and you can more or less write down his stats before the season starts.

He still strikes out too much, but he did have a career year in 2008 with a .276 average, 23 homers, 104 runs scored, and 89 RBI. He will turn 27 years old right around Memorial Day, so he is just about to enter his prime. Although he almost guarantees you good value as a ninth round pick, there is a good chance his statistics will be better than others drafted around the same time.

Round 10

Another of the “old guard” at short whose stock is dropping like a rock, Miguel Tejada barely even deserves to be drafted, never mind in the 10th round. In 2004, he hit 34 homers. In 2008, he hit 13. In 2004, he drove in 150 runs; in 2008, he drove in 66. In 2004 he hit .311. In 2008. he hit .283. These are significant drops in his numbers, and between that and his involvement in a possible perjury trial, there is little reason to draft Tejada.

Some guys just do not get the credit they deserve in fantasy, and J.J. Hardy fits that description. In 2007, Hardy got off to a torrid pace and landed on the radar of all fantasy players. However, like many expected, his stats tailed off significantly in the second half but he still finished the season with respectable numbers. In 2008, he was able to nearly duplicate those stats. Over the last two seasons he has averaged 25 homers, 77 RBI, 84 runs scored, and a .280 batting average.

So why is he lasting so long? I have to say I am not sure, and if you are able to get Hardy in this spot, you made an excellent selection. Perhaps a third straight season will get him the love he deserves, but if not, you can keep getting great value at shortstop in the middle rounds of drafts.

Round 13

Even without taking into account that he still does not have a team as of today, I am still not sure why Orlando Cabrera goes in this area of the draft because there is no category that he excels at. He has hit over .285 only once in the past five years; he has not broken double digit home runs in four years; and he has only stolen more than 25 bases once in his entire career.

Fantasy owners still remember his 86 RBI from 2007, but he has been in the 50s and 60s in RBI in his career more than the 80s. If your league requires a middle infielder he is worth a roster spot, but I think there are better players still available at the position here.

Mike Aviles made quite an impact in his 102 games with the Royals last season, but obviously, you can tell by his draft position that people do not believe he was for real. Perhaps you cannot have too much faith that he will repeat his .325 average, which is legitimate given his minor league numbers, but his speed and power numbers can definitely be duplicated.

In 2007, Aviles was the Royals’ Minor League Player of the Year when he hit 17 homers and drove in 77 runs while hitting .296. Between Tiriple-A and Kansas City in 2008, he was even better than that as he hit around .330 with 20 homers and 93 RBI. I would take him before Cabrera, Tejada, and perhaps even Jeter.

Round 15

Fantasy players have been waiting for Yunel Escobar to break out.  They were disappointed in 2008.  He had a myriad of nagging injuries that only cost him 26 games, but they caused him to be ineffective for much of the year. After hitting .326 when coming to the majors in 2007, Escobar only hit .288 in his second season. That does not sound bad, but combining that with only 10 home runs and 60 RBI, that does not give you a great fantasy player. Right now, until he is able to stay healthy and take the next step, Escobar can only be counted on as a middle infield option.

Although I am far from in love with everyone in Group Two, after Yunel Escobar it gets really hairy.  You do not want to use any of the guys below as your starting shortstop.  They are either not guaranteed a starting job, one dimensional, or very inconsistent.

Ryan Theriot does not offer you a whole lot of contribution at any one category, but he will be a decent guy to have on your bench because he is decent at both batting average and stolen bases. In 2008, “The Riot” hit .301 and stole 22 bags while scoring 85 runs, and those are all reasonably good numbers for this part of the draft. Unfortunately, he was able to hit only one home run and drove in just 38 runs. I do not think he is worthy of a draft pick, but he has shown flashes of great things.

Round 17

Khalil Greene found himself on all fantasy rosters in 2007 while posting a career best 27 homers and 97 RBI, despite hitting just .254. Greene followed up that season with career worsts across the board as he hit just .213 with 10 homers and 35 RBI. So, which Greene will show up in 2009? Your guess is as good as mine, but if your starting shortstop is a guy with major question marks attached, taking Khalil Greene towards the end of your draft is not the worst idea.

Round 19

Jed Lowrie got off to a great start before struggling badly down the stretch. Now we know that he had a hairline fracture in his wrist the whole time. He was able to drive in 46 runs in just 81 games, but that was the only facet of the game that he excelled in.

Lowrie hit just.258 with only two home runs, and stole only a single base. Lowrie will be battling Julio Lugo for the starting shortstop job in Boston, but if money comes into play, Lugo will be winning that job. He is a risky pick given that a starting job is not guaranteed, but he could be a nice complementary player if he is playing every day.

Round 20

There is not much left to like about Edgar Renteria. At age 33, he had his worst offensive season since leaving St. Louis, and now that he has moved to San Francisco, he is hoping that a return to the National League he return him to his past status. Renteria’s stats have certainly eroded, however. His batting average has been bouncing back and forth the past few years from good to decent; his power is almost gone; he does not steal many bases anymore; and his runs scored have dropped over 30 in the last two seasons. There is an outside chance at a bounce back season by the bay for Renteria, but I would not bet too much on it.

Elvis Andrus has never played past Double-A, but the Rangers have seen enough apparently to hand him their starting shortstop job, indicated by the fact that they told long-time starter Michael Young that he would be moving to third base. Andrus has the chance to hit around .285, but his real value will be his speed. He stole 33 bases in just 71 games at AA-Frisco last year, and Texas hopes that he can steal 40+ bags for them over the span of a full season.

Given the inexperience he has, Andrus is a bit of a gamble, but if your team is devoid of steals and you are at the end of your draft you can do worse than Andrus. He is almost guaranteed the starting job for the Rangers.

Later Rounds or Undrafted
Cristian Guzman (WAS); Julio Lugo (BOS); Brandon Wood (LAA); Yuniesky Betancourt (SEA); Manny Burriss (SF); Bobby Crosby(OAK); Jason Bartlett (TB)