Tony Romo: Fantasy Draft Value, Red Flags and Predictions for Cowboys QB

It inevitably happens at every fantasy football draft—someone selects Tony Romo, a few of the other guys mock the pick or just mock Romo in general and the person who selects the Dallas Cowboys quarterback tries to rationally explain why he's a great fantasy option.

To no avail, of course. 

It has become a rite of passage for snarky bloggers and wannabe comedians on Twitter to bash Romo whenever possible for his late-game failures, but it's only served to belie a simple truth—Romo is a very good quarterback and an excellent option for your fantasy team.

But where should you target the polarizing signal-caller? How concerned should you be with his injury history? And is Romo really as risky of a fantasy option as his reputation suggests?

Glad you asked. Let's take a closer look.

Fantasy Strengths

For all of the injuries Romo battled last year, he still played 15 games, threw for 4,185 yards and 31 touchdowns and limited his turnovers, throwing just 10 interceptions and fumbling the ball five times.

Limiting those turnovers last year was a big plus. When healthy, Romo puts up solid numbers in terms of passing yards and touchdowns, but turnovers have been an issue in the past. But in the 38 games he's played since 2009, he's turned the ball over just 36 times.

Contrast that to the 71 turnovers he had in 45 games from 2006 to 2008, and it's clear that Romo is a reformed quarterback.

As weapons go, Romo and the Cowboys are covered, though injuries to Miles Austin and Jason Witten will be a cause for concern if the two aren't ready for the regular season. Still, with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray looking like bright young stars, Romo will have playmakers to pad his stats after the catch.

Fantasy Red Flags

Oh, let's see. After playing just six games in 2010, he battled rib and hand injuries in 2011. He was sacked 36 times last year, and if the Cowboys' offensive line doesn't stay healthy, they could see a repeat of those numbers this year. It won't help that the Cowboys have eight games against teams who finished with 40 or more sacks last season. 

In other words, he's an injury risk.

Plus, Witten and Austin are injury concerns, as both are currently out of action. With Laurent Robinson and Martellus Bennett now playing elsewhere, depth at wide receiver and tight end is an issue.

And the Cowboys don't exactly have an easy schedule this season. The team has nine games against defenses that finished 12th or better against the pass last year, and having to play the physical defenses in the AFC North this season won't do Romo any favors.

Film Study

I mostly included this video because it was shocking to see a conversation about someone other than Tim Tebow or LeBron James on First Take. And actually, it's a pretty good debate over the salient points of contention about Romo's career thus far.

Draft-Day Value

Believe it or not, given his average draft position, Tony Romo is one of the safest options in fantasy football at the quarterback position.

Seriously.

With an ADP of 49.0 in ESPN snake drafts, Romo represents nice value as a fifth-round pick in 10-team leagues. Think about some of the players being drafted just before him (Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Peyton Manning) and those just after him (Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Robert Griffin III).

It's highly unlikely Cam Newton can rush for 14 touchdowns again in 2012, an NFL record for quarterbacks he set last season. He'll see his value lessen in 2012. He's got "bust potential" (or "sophomore slump," if you like) written all over him.

Vick and Manning are huge injury risks, and Manning could be shaky early in the season given he missed all of 2011 due to injury and is now playing for a new team.

Philip Rivers has seen a steady stream of talent leave the San Diego Chargers offense in recent years. Roethlisberger only had seven games of 15 or more points in standard-scoring leagues last season, and just three with 20 or more points.

And Robert Griffin III is a freaking rookie.

If you miss out on Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford or Eli Manning, Romo is surprisingly one of the safest options remaining, injury risk and all. Besides, what quarterback isn't an injury risk? It's the NFL, after all.

If you like stocking up on talent at other positions and taking a quarterback late, target Romo in the fifth or sixth round and enjoy your solid value pick.

Tweet That Says It All

Brad Evans from Yahoo! noted the difficulties the Cowboys had protecting Romo in the team's first preseason game against the Oakland Raiders:

"

The Dallas offensive line couldn't protect Tony Romo from a group of preschoolers right now. Sieve.

— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) August 14, 2012"

For fantasy owners, it's the single scariest aspect of drafting Romo. At least he didn't get sacked when the team played the Chargers on Sunday.

Predictions

Games	Yards	Touchdowns	Turnovers
14	4,050	32	16

He's going to get banged around a little. He's going to need to extend plays when the pocket breaks down. He'll probably even miss a game or two. But as Romo proved last year—even with a bad offensive line and injuries to deal with—he's still a viable fantasy starter.

The thing that Romo gives you is the security to know that you can add a solid quarterback later in the draft. With plenty of depth at wide receiver and a ton of uncertainty at the running back position this year, you pretty much need to snag safe running back options early if you have the chance to do so.

That means you may find yourself out of the running for an elite quarterback. But trust in Romo—he's a safe bet to finish in the 4,000 passing yards and 30-touchdown range. If you back him up with another solid value later in the draft—think Matt Ryan here—you should be just fine at quarterback. 

Yes, your league mates will probably give you a hard time. Let them—as long as you're the one laughing at the end of the season, all the Romo jokes will be worth the trouble.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets are cracking like a Ronda Rousey armbar.