Atlanta Braves Season Preview: Pitching Staff

Any preview written about this 2009 Atlanta Braves starting rotation has to begin with the word "deep."

Last season’s injury-plagued rotation lost John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, and Chuck James to season ending injuries in June, July, and August, respectively.

And as if that was not bad enough, the Braves lost setup man Peter Moylan in April and his replacement (and part-time closer) Rafael Soriano in August.

Add to all the injuries the ineffectiveness of young, unproven pitchers such as Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton; and an overused bullpen with Blaine Boyer, Jeff Bennett, and Buddy Carlyle; and you have the perfect recipe for a 72-90 season and a fourth-place finish in the division.

So the first thing Frank Wren set out to do this offseason was to add depth to the pitching staff. Well, consider his mission accomplished!

No. 1

Derek Lowe was the best remaining free-agent pitcher available, and the Braves made sure to sign the workhorse. He has averaged 15 wins and 208 innings per season since becoming a starter in 2002. He was the ace of the Dodgers' staff for four seasons and  has one of the nastiest sinker-balls in the game.

Another great thing about signing Lowe was that the Braves kept him from the Mets and Phillies, who were both runners-up for his services. Preventing your rivals from acquiring of the most successful pitchers in National League has to be worth 10 to 20 wins in itself. I expect Lowe himself to win at least 15 games this season.

No. 2

Jair Jurrjens is coming off a rookie season in which he won 13 games and became the de facto ace of this staff. Jurrjens pitched 188 innings last season and accumulated a 3.68 ERA, which are very good stats for anyone, let alone for a rookie.

The sky seems to be the limit for Jurrjens after a great rookie season. I expect more of the same this year. Thirteen to fifteen wins are probable for the young No. 2 starter.

No. 3

The first acquisition of this offseason was veteran Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has had great stuff for quite a while, and the Braves actually tried to trade for him back in his Montreal Expos days.

Of course, in 2009, Javier Vazquez is not the promising young ace that he used to be. But he does bring to Atlanta a veteran presence and a consistent arm. He's thrown over 200 innings in all but one of his seasons since 2000. And in that lone season of sub-200, he threw 198 innings.

The Braves can reasonably expect 11 to 13 wins from Vazquez, not a bad number from your No. 3 starter.

No. 4

Next in the rotation is former Japanese ace Kenshin Kawakami. A seasoned veteran, Kawakami could baffle major-league batters the first time around.

We’ve seen that happen recently with many prized Japanese free agents. It seems reasonable to that with Kawakami, as well.

I know he's no Daisuke, but having someone with his purported ability in the four-slot of your rotation is definitely not a bad thing. I think that Braves fans can expect 8-10 wins from him.

No. 5

It’s not everyday that your No. 5 starter has the most impressive resume of your pitchers. But in Atlanta, that's just the case: Tom Glavine has over 300 wins in his career.

I think that anyone would tell you that if Tom Glavine is your No. 5 starter, you have a pretty deep staff. Sure, he’s coming off his first ever DL stint, and is on the other side of 40, but he’s still Tom Glavine.

Another name that will fit in with this staff, sooner rather than later, is uber prospect Tommy Hanson. It may take an injury to get Hanson on the staff, but then again, maybe not. If anyone is ineffective, injured, or just needs a rest, expect to see this boy on the mound. If you listen to the Braves veteran players gushing about his stuff, you’d think he’s the next coming of Cy Young.

Chipper Jones does not brag on prospects every day. So to hear him say stuff like “Hanson’s slider reminds you of Smoltzie’s” has to bring a smile to Braves fans' faces.

Hanson is as close to "can’t-miss" as possible. Between him and Glavine at the No. 5 slot, I fully expect 15 or more wins.

As a matter of fact, I, along with many publications, predicted Hanson to win the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009. If he can get 15 wins himself, he'll have it in his back pocket.

The Bullpen

As a result of the rotation practically overflowing, the Braves will have some long arms in the bullpen as well.

Jorge Campillo pitched well as a spot-starter last year. He will probably be in the ‘pen as a long reliever in 2009.

Joining Campillo in the ‘pen will be youngsters Blaine Boyer, Phil Stockman and Manny Acosta, all of whom are decent middle relievers. At various points during the season you’ll probably see Charlie Morton, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Bennett, and Jo-Jo Reyes come out as well. Any or all of those guys will probably serve as spot-starters or long relievers at some point in the coming summer.

Taking Will Ohman’s spot as lefty specialist will be Boone Logan, who came over from the White Sox in the Vazquez deal. Also in the mix is Eric O’ Flaherty, who the Braves signed as a free agent from the Seattle Mariners.

You’ll see some combination of Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano setting up in the late innings. It depends on who is healthy and when; the last time Moylan was at full strength was 2007, when he had a 1.80 ERA in 90 innings as the team’s setup man.

Closer

And closing will be Mike Gonzalez, who will be back at full strength after Tommy John surgery two years ago. Gonzalez saved 31 straight during his last few healthy seasons. And after coming back from surgery in 2008’s second half, he saved 14 of 16 games. 

So, if you couldn't tell from the previous 900 or so words in this column, the Braves are deep at pitcher. The starting pitching and the bullpen have been fortified and should definitely stay fresh this season. That’s the recipe for a turnaround.