7 Reasons the Yankees Can't Survive AL East Race Without Healthy CC Sabathia

The injury bug has been chomping on the New York Yankees since before the season even began. And to show it means business, the injury bug has bitten CC Sabathia not once, but twice.

Before this season, Sabathia was a man of steel. He had logged at least 230 innings in five straight seasons, and well over 2,000 between 2001 and 2011.

Now that he's been derailed for a second time this season due to an elbow injury, it's doubtful that he'll even come close to hitting the 200-inning plateau.

It's also fair to question if Sabathia is going to be 100 percent healthy at any point during the rest of the season. According to the New York Daily News, Sabathia's left elbow was so sore that he feared the worst when he went in to get an MRI on it.

The MRI didn't reveal any structural damage, and nobody is saying that Sabathia is going to be out any longer than a couple of weeks. He should be good to go when he comes off the DL.

The Yankees had better hope he's at full strength when he comes back. They're going to need a healthy Sabathia in order to lock up the AL East crown for the third time in the last four seasons.

Here's a look at seven reasons why anything less than a healthy Sabathia will spell trouble for the Yankees.

Note: All stats are as of the start of play on Monday, August 13, and they come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Not Playing That Well to Begin with

As far as records went, the Yankees were the best team in baseball at the All-Star break. They had an MLB-best record of 52-33, complete with a +65 run differential.

Since the break, however, the Yankees have been decidedly "meh." In 29 games, they're just 15-14, and that includes a 10-13 stretch in their last 23 games.

At one point early in the second half, the Yankees owned a 10-game lead in the AL East. That lead has since been cut in half, and there's more than one team pursuing the Yankees (more on them in a moment).

Keep in mind that this stretch of mediocrity has come with Sabathia in their rotation. He was activated off the DL on July 17 and made five starts before ending up back on the DL. The Yankees won three of those five starts.

So without Sabathia, it's conceivable that the Yankees could actually be sitting on a sub-.500 record since the All-Star break, and that fate could very well await them in the next couple weeks.

And even if Sabathia is fully healthy after a couple weeks, the Yankees won't be out of the woods just yet. After all, it's not like he's the only star they're missing at the moment.

Shortage of Able Bodies

Presently, Sabathia is just one of 11 different Yankees on the disabled list.

Of those, the Yankees know that Mariano Rivera and Michael Pineda are out of the picture for the rest of the season, and it's doubtful that Brett Gardner will be back before the end of the season. 

Beyond those three, it's looking like both Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte won't be back until early-to-mid September.

So at this moment in time, the Yankees are as weak as they've been all season. In fact, I honestly don't remember the last time the Yankees were trotting out such ordinary lineups on a regular basis.

The problem won't go away even if Sabathia is 100 percent healthy upon his return. They'll still have several big guns out for the season, and A-Rod and Pettitte could still be a couple weeks away.

And then there's the possibility that Sabathia will be pitching at less than 100 percent down the stretch. According to the report from the Daily News, that's how Sabathia pitched in his last start against the Detroit Tigers when he gave up five runs (three earned) in 6.2 innings.

Not that the Yankees will actually let Sabathia play hurt. They'll keep him stashed on the DL until he's pain-free and take their chances without him for a while longer. They're not about to risk long-term harm with such a huge investment.

In such troubled times, the Bombers typically look to their offense to pick up the slack. This year, there are no guarantees on that front.

Unpredictable Offense

The Yankees are actually scoring more runs per game in the second half of the season than they did in the first half of the season. They averaged 4.8 runs per game before the break, and are averaging 5.3 runs per game after the break.

But this is slightly misleading. The Yankees' offense has been feast or famine in the second half, capable of exploding for 10 or more runs while also being prone to dominant performances from the opposition's pitching.

For example, remember that string of 43 straight games in which the Yankees scored at least three runs? That came to an end on July 20 in Oakland when the Yankees could only manage a pair of runs.

Including that game, they've scored fewer than three runs six times in their last 22 games. 

Curtis Granderson isn't helping, as he's hitting just .218 with a sub-.300 OBP since the break. The Yankees have also gotten sporadic production out of key role players like Ichiro and Andruw Jones.

On a good day, the Yankees are still very much capable of scoring enough runs to compensate for a poor performance from one of their starting pitchers. What's different now from years past is that not every day is a good day for the Yankees' offense. The Bronx Bombers are picking their battles.

Starting Pitching Staff Without Its Rock/Stopper

This has not been Sabathia's most dominant season. He has a mediocre (for him) 3.56 ERA, and is currently sitting on a career-worst 12.1 HR/FB rate, according to FanGraphs.

Despite his lack of dominance, however, one thing Sabathia has managed to do as well as ever this season when he's been healthy is eat innings. He's pitched at least six innings in all but one of his 20 starts, and he managed to log his second complete game of the season the start before his breakdown in Detroit.

On days when Sabathia has pitched, the Yankees have managed to win more often than not. He has a 12-3 record on the season, and the Yankees have a 14-6 record when Sabathia starts.

He hasn't been dominant, but he's still been the ace of the Yankees' starting rotation. No doubt about it.

As far as replacements go, the Yankees could do worse than David Phelps, who has a 2.08 ERA in three starts this season. But he's no Sabathia. He's not going to give the Yankees seven or eight good innings every time he takes the mound, nor is he the kind of guy that other teams are going to fear facing.

Additionally, having Phelps in the rotation means the Yankees have one fewer able body in their bullpen. The longer Sabathia is out, the more of an issue that will be.

No Innings Eater = More Pressure on Bullpen

The Yankees' bullpen isn't a bad bullpen by any stretch of the imagination. It has a 3.26 ERA, which is good for fifth in the American League.

But is the Yankees' bullpen weaker now than in years past? You better believe it.

Not having Rivera to close games hasn't killed the Yankees this season, and for that they can thank Rafael Soriano. Without Rivera, however, the Yankees' bullpen isn't as deep as it otherwise would be. David Robertson's unpredictable nature hasn't helped, and it's apparent that Joba Chamberlain can't be trusted with pitching in pressure situations.

As long as Phelps and Freddy Garcia are in the Yankees' starting rotation, their rotation contains two guys who would otherwise be long relievers. Filling that role for the Yankees for the time being is Derek Lowe, who was bad enough this season to get released by the pitching-starved Cleveland Indians. 

The bullpen won't be a problem for the Yankees if Sabathia comes back healthy and immediately returns to giving the Yankees seven or eight good innings on a regular basis. As long as he's out, however, the Yankees' bullpen is going to have to pick up more and more innings.

Bad things tend to happen when overworked bullpens are turned loose late in the season. Just look what happened to the Red Sox and Braves last September. Their bullpens combined for 16 losses, which helped contribute to disastrous endings for both clubs.

Schedule Isn't Easy

Right about now, the Yankees are probably hoping that they can weather the storm without CC Sabathia much like the Cincinnati Reds weathered their own storm without Joey Votto. Instead of sinking back to the rest of the pack in the NL Central, they won 10 in a row and 15 of 16.

Here's the thing, though: The Reds racked up their wins against the likes of Milwaukee, Houston, Colorado and San Diego, four of the NL's worst teams.

There aren't many lightweights in the AL, and the Yankees' upcoming schedule is anything but easy. Remaining on their schedule in August are four games against Texas, three games against Boston, three games at Chicago and three against Toronto.

Things won't get any easier in September if Sabathia is still out or is struggling to recapture his usual form. Awaiting the Yankees is a 10-game road trip through Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Boston. Even after that's finished, they'll still be faced with two series against Toronto, and a series each against Tampa Bay, Oakland and Boston.

One immediately assumes that the Yankees will be able to handle themselves just fine. They are the Yankees, after all. 

...But then one remembers that they have a record of just 15-14 since the break against pretty much the same level of competition with Sabathia in their rotation.

The other thing to keep in mind is that merely treading water won't be enough. It'll take more than that to outpace the competition.

The Wolves Are at the Front Door

The Yankees are used to being pursued by the Boston Red Sox. The fact that they're out of the race would typically indicate that the Bombers are home free.

They're not. Not if the Orioles and Rays have anything to do with it, anyway.

The Orioles have no business being as good as they are, but don't tell them that. Every time people are ready to bury them for good, they come out and string a few wins together. This is something they've been doing quite a bit since the break, as they're 17-13 in the second half and 7-4 in August.

Tampa Bay is even more dangerous. The Rays have yet to lose since Evan Longoria returned from the DL, and they have a record of 17-11 since the break and are 8-2 in August. 

As a team, the Rays have an ERA of 2.33 since the All-Star break. David Price is a legit Cy Young contender, and James Shields and Matt Moore have finally come around.

Neither the Orioles nor Rays are to be underestimated, and the Yankees have 13 games remaining against the two of them down the stretch.

Their lead in the division is already down to five games. To avoid losing it, they're going to need as many wins as they can get.

Therefore, to say that they're going to need a healthy Sabathia to save their division lead is by no means an exaggeration.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.