Why the Twins Should Trade Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter is something of an institution in the Twins organization. 

He was the Twins' top draft pick in 1993, and he earned an everyday spot in the outfield in 1999. Since then, he's won six consecutive Gold Gloves and posted good power numbers (despite his high strikeout totals) as an integral part of the Twins offense.

But even though he appears to be at the top of his game, it's time for Minnesota to trade him.

 

Every dollar spent on Torii Hunter is a dollar that doesn't go towards, say, reigning AL MVP Justin Morneau or 100 RBI man Michael Cuddyer.

Yes, Hunter is having the season of his life; but he's 31 and his skills are going to decline in the next few years. If the Twins re-sign him, they're bound to overpay. Players similar to Hunter—Fred Lynn is an example—have experienced dramatic reductions in offensive ability beginning at age 32.

And if the Twins aren't going to keep Hunter, it's better to trade him now and get something in return while they still can.

That said, Torii has been one of the Twins' most important run producers in 2007. If the team is going to have a shot down the stretch, they need to replace him with capable players, preferably for less than his $12 million price tag.

Just how many runs can Hunter be expected to produce between now and October? There are a number of applicable equations here, but I'll use the simplest: On-Base Percentage times Slugging Percentage times At Bats equals Runs Produced (OBP*SLG*AB=R).

Assuming that there are 250 AB left in the season, we can expect Torii Hunter to produce 47.4 runs, an impresive number. For comparison, the Twins DH slot (Tyner/Kubel/Redmond/Cirillo) is expected to produce 28.4 runs, and the Twins third base position (Punto/Cirillo) should be good for 27.1.

As for replacing Hunter—the worst-case scenario for the Twins is Jason Tyner taking over in center field. Tyner can be expected to produce just 26.2 runs over his next 250 at bats. He also lacks Hunter's defensive range; based on defensive stats, I estimate that Tyner will record 17 fewer outs than Hunter and thus create four additional runs for opposing teams, for a net differential of 17.2.

The rub here is that the Twins need one or two players to make up for Hunter's absence, probably at third base or DH or both. To complicate matters, they'll have to look for guys who a) come cheaper than Hunter now and b) will be re-signable—for less money than Hunter would command—at the end of the year.

Obviously, GM Terry Ryan has his work cut out for him. Does he have any chance of pulling it off?

The names bandied about on trade-rumor websites haves included Mike Lowell, Ty Wigginton, Adam Dunn, Hank Blalock, and Jermaine Dye. Of those, Dunn is the best option: He's due to produce roughly 51 runs over his next 250 at bats, and his 2007 salary is $10.5 million...but the Twins would probably struggle to sign him over the offseason.

Lowell is cheaper ($9 million) and his numbers suggest he'll produce 47 runs by the end of the year. The Twins would likely be able to re-sign Lowell for less than what they'd have to pay Hunter.

Granted, Ryan probably wants to get more than just one player out of any deal involving Hunter—but my purpose is to show that he has viable options.

Wigginton presents an especially intriguing scenario. He's only on pace to produce 38 more runs by the end of the year, but his $2.7 million contract would allow the Twins to invest in another bat to bridge the gap. He'd also be a strong candidate to re-sign for far less than $12 million after the season.

If the Twins can get another major-league-ready player and some prospects out of a Wigginton deal, it may be worth their while.

The alternative option, of course, is to ride out the season with Hunter knowing that he'll sign elsewhere over the winter. This would be a waste—but Ryan's hand may be forced if he can't get a good deal in the trade market.

The absolute worst course of action would be to re-sign Hunter and sacrifice Cuddyer and Morneau. The two of them are on pace to produce a combined 90 runs by the end of the year—and at 28 and 26, respectively, they're both younger than Hunter.

As much as I've enjoyed watching Torii over the years, it's clear that he shouldn't be in the Twins' long-term plans. If they play their cards right, the Twins can swing a deal to save money, increase run production, and get more competitive both this year and next. 

It won't be easy, but that's what GMs get paid for. It's time for Terry Ryan to earn his money and cash in on Torii Hunter.

Marty Andrade is a frequent contributor to the Bleacher Report and the host of a live weekly podcast available at BlogTalkRadio.com/Andrade.