Chris Carpenter's Health Key to Cardinals' Success in 2009

It's been a long winter (maybe not as cold here in New York as the Midwest), but regardless, it's almost baseball time!

The Cardinals open up their spring training schedule on Wednesday, and I am back to blog about what should be a very interesting season. The continued progression of the team from the veteran-dominated teams of the mid-2000s to the young team that was so exciting last year has continued, with names such as Jason Isringhausen, Adam Kennedy, and Mark Mulder off the books.

Health issues remain, with Troy Glaus' return timeframe uncertain and Chris Carpenter a question mark as always. However, this team will be defined by how the younger players perform. Can Ryan Ludwick live up to the hype? Can Skip Schumaker learn second base? What will Chris Duncan look like this year? Of course, Colby Rasmus's debut seems inevitable, which in itself will make this season memorable.

I was going to do a projection of the NL Central for my first blog, but Bugs and Cranks beat me to it...

I ended up with a Cardinals team with a few more wins than this, but that's a post for another day. I think most of the Cardinals' success is contingent on Carpenter's health. If he can get a reasonable number of starts, I like our rotation (minus Joel Pineiro). If he can't, and someone from AAA needs to make a lot of appearances, our rotation suddenly looks very weak.

I will probably do a few "best-worst case scenarios" with win projections in the next few days, perhaps after Carpenter makes his first Grapefruit League start.

I know there aren't a lot of readers out there, but was there anything I wrote about during the season last year that struck you as valuable? The number of blogs out there is staggering, and I often found myself thinking along the same lines as a lot of other people, which makes my opinion a little less valuable. I found this especially true in the after game commentary, as well as the fine statistical work done over at Viva el Birdos.

However, I think that there is a niche for the "series preview" approach to my blogging. I am not aware of a place that provides a more sabermetric approach on a series by series basis (especially for the Cardinals).

For out of division teams that we see once or twice a year, I will probably provide more of the basics. For teams we see a lot, I will try to get a bit more in depth and provide more interesting matchups. Will Albert Pujols see more fastballs during a particular series than normal? How do pitchers' release points change during the season? And so forth...

I am open to suggestions as the season gets underway. Thanks for reading!