8 College Football Schools That Won't Be in the Same Conference in 5 Years

The college football landscape has been changed forever with the recent announcement of the four-team playoff system. One part of the new playoffs system that some may have missed was the importance that conference standing will play in the selection process, giving the country at least eight schools that won’t be in the same conference in five years.

The Southeastern Conference has already expanded to 14 teams beginning in the 2012 season with the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M, and other conferences are expected to follow in the near future. What teams will join the new wave of expansions that are sure to come?

Smaller conferences will suffer with the wave of defections that appears to be looming on the horizon. Despite the assumption of equality that comes with the word “playoffs,” fans will be disappointed to find that the new system may make it more difficult for smaller conferences to land in the top four. The writing is on the wall—the move to a major conference is the only sure shot at the final four.

As the new championship format comes into view over the next few seasons, expect these eight teams to make shifts in conference affiliation. 

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville is a team that was recently in the discussion when the Big 12 was looking for new members to fill out its lineup after the defection of Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC. 

The Cardinals have had consistent success since the turn of the century, making a bowl appearance in nine of the last 12 seasons. At the conclusion of the 2006 season, the Cardinals made it into the BCS, winning the Orange Bowl by defeating Wake Forest. 

Over the past few seasons, the Cardinals have made some changes throughout the football offices, hiring current head coach Charlie Strong from Florida in December of 2009.

The new wind that came with the hire of Charlie Strong has the Cardinals back in the discussion to lead the Big East this season, which could place the Cardinals in another BCS bowl if they win the conference. 

As the new playoffs format falls into place, teams like Louisville will be hot commodities for major conferences looking to expand their reaches. The Cardinals are a hot name and have a young feel to their winning tradition. The Cardinals are an up-and-comer in college football. 

Look for the ACC or the Big 12 to reach out to Louisville once the expansion discussion kicks in again—and expect Louisville to listen. Both parties would benefit greatly from the move. 

South Florida Bulls

The South Florida Bulls is a team that is very similar to the Louisville Cardinals, building a lot of steam in the past decade. South Florida has been a new team on the block in recent years, only playing FBS-level football since 2001.

The Bulls have only had two losing seasons since moving into the highest level of college football competition, producing a never-before-seen success rate given the short amount of time the school has fielded a football team—the first sanctioned football squad for South Florida first played in 1997.

What that success has done for the Bulls is make them an instant national brand, and a big pickup for any conference looking for a formidable expansion school. The Bulls currently play in the Big East, but there are two conferences that will likely push for the Bulls to join their lineup—the ACC and the Big 12. 

Of the two choices, the ACC is the most natural fit for the Bulls. The ACC is already set to expand to 14 teams in 2013, with the addition of fellow Big East members Pitt and Syracuse joining the conference—picking off one more Big East team wouldn’t be out of the cards.

Will the ACC go over 14 teams to snag South Florida? That doesn’t appear likely right now, but if the ACC loses a team to another conference’s expansion—maybe Boston College—the Bulls would be front-runners. 

Boston College Golden Eagles

The Boston College Golden Eagles have built a well-known football tradition over the years, with the most memorable moment being the 1984 season when quarterback Doug Flutie won the Heisman Trophy and led one of the greatest comebacks in college football history: the Golden Eagles' defeat of the Miami Hurricanes the day after Thanksgiving. 

The Golden Eagles had 12 consecutive winning seasons from 1999-2010, making a shift from the Big East to the ACC in 2005. Last season, the Golden Eagles struggled—producing a 4-8 season—but it was expected to be a transition year for the program. 

Of all the schools found on the list, Boston College appears to be the most solid at its current conference affiliation, but the Golden Eagles don’t fit that well inside the ACC. They give the ACC a solid television market in the northeast, but what do the Golden Eagles gain? 

The Big Ten will be looking for another round of expansion teams in the future, and Boston College would be a great fit for the conference. If the Big Ten came calling, expect the Golden Eagles to jump conferences and head to the more natural fit that is found in the Big Ten.

The Big Ten will have to keep up with the other major conferences and move to a 14 team layout, with Boston College being a great pickup. Both the school and conference would benefit from this shift. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame has been an independent in college football since the inception of its program in 1887. The Fighting Irish have maintained the position that they do not need a conference, that the brand is big enough to support independence. 

Until now, that strategy has worked for the Irish. Notre Dame was the only independent team that was a part of the BCS discussions and the only single institution that was a part of the playoffs discussions with the major decision makers in the game this past winter. 

The Irish have done well as an independent, but the coming playoffs scenario may force a move to a conference. The most natural fit for the Fighting Irish is undoubtedly the Big Ten. 

As conferences expand, the marquee games that line the Irish’s schedule will disappear as the required minimum in-conference games will eliminate open dates among top-tier competition that the Irish currently use to increase their strength of schedule. Notre Dame will not be able to schedule highly regarded matchups in the future, lowering the strength of schedule for the Irish.

Another pivotal piece of the puzzle that will be missing is a conference championship. As the game progresses, conference affiliation is becoming a bigger piece of the discussion than ever before. If Notre Dame wants to compete for national titles, they will have to affiliate with a conference.

Landing in the Big Ten will provide the conference with its 14th team—assuming that the Boston College move happens—and it would ensure that the Irish are a part of the title discussion annually. 

SMU Mustangs

Southern Methodist University carries the unique distinction of being the only institution to receive the “Death Penalty” from the NCAA. During the late 1970’s and throughout the 1980’s the program was providing impermissible benefits to a number of football players. 

Since the ruling was dropped, the SMU Mustangs have been consistently terrible on the football field—until 2008. Prior to the season, June Jones was hired as head coach and has since led the Mustangs back to the winners' circle in the past few years. 

In 2009 and 2010, the Jones-led Mustangs won a shared division title inside Conference USA. The Mustangs appear to be back on the upswing on the field, with a solid plan and leadership in place. Currently, SMU is scheduled to join the Big East conference prior to the 2013 season.

SMU has shown interest in another conference as well, with the Big 12 sitting in the SMU backyard. Will the Mustangs eventually move beyond the Big East and make it to the Big 12? 

The assumption has to be there that the Big 12 will want to fill out its conference with at least 14 teams in the future to keep up with the other major conferences, and SMU would be a great choice. They are a team on the rise that would fit the landscape currently found in the Big 12.

Don’t be surprised if the Big 12 plucks the Mustangs from the Big East shortly after they land there. 

Nevada Wolfpack

The Nevada Wolfpack is a team that is on the cusp of a major move in conference affiliation that begins this season. Nevada is moving from the WAC to the MWC alongside conference foe Fresno State. Both will join the already moved Boise State Broncos in the MWC—the Broncos stop will be short-lived, as they move to the Big East in 2013. 

The Wolfpack made the shift to FBS play after the 1991 season, and have been a moderately successful program since the move. In the 2000’s, the Wolfpack began to climb into the national discussion with seven consecutive bowl appearances happening for the program, with an eighth consecutive bowl attainable after this season.

Head coach Chris Ault has been a major reason the Wolfpack has climbed the national scene in the past few years. In 2004, Ault rolled out his new offensive scheme—the Pistol formation.

The Pistol was an innovation that has changed how offense and defense is playing in college football and has allowed him to build a very successful offense in Nevada. The Wolfpack are moving to a new conference this fall, but they will still be in a mid-major conference.

The Pac-12 was at the forefront of the major conference expansions that has happened over the past few seasons, but with the latest moves by other conferences, the Pac-12 will be lagging behind in numbers. The Wolfpack would be a great fit for the Pac-12, though, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a move in that direction happen in the next few seasons. 

BYU Cougars

The BYU Cougars have a football program that is laced with history, as the Cougars have produced a number of stellar seasons in the school's past. Currently, the Cougars are one of four independents that are playing at the FBS level in college football. 

BYU chose to go independent prior to the 2011 season, inking a television coverage deal with ESPN in the process, ensuring that the Cougars would receive television time for 11 of their 12 games. 

As college football moves to a playoffs model to decide on a national champion in the next few seasons, BYU could find itself standing on the outside looking in—the Cougars have less clout on the national stage than fellow independent Notre Dame. 

The playoffs will affect the ability of the Cougars to land big name matchups, and will also hurt the Cougars chances at a title if they don’t face a conference title game. BYU was not happy with the setup they found themselves in as a member of the MWC, but joining a conference like the Pac-12 would change the game for the Cougars. 

As previously mentioned, the Pac-12 will need to move soon to pick up schools that could extend the conference beyond 12 teams and still keep around top level competition. BYU would benefit from the exposure and the conference would benefit from the name recognition and success. 

Another conference fit for the Cougars would be the Big 12. Don't be surprised if the Cougars have options to pick from in the next few years. 

Fresno State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs from “The Valley” have been playing football since 1921. Fresno State has been anything but consistent with its wins in the past, but since the late 1970’s the program has been on the rise, staying above the .500 mark. 

Most recently, Pat Hill led the Bulldogs to consistent wins throughout his tenure. Hill was fired after the 2011 season, and Tim DeRuyter was hired after serving as defensive coordinator and interim head coach at Texas A&M.

The Bulldogs are looking for DeRuyter to pick up where Hill left off and return the Bulldogs back into the winners' circle starting this fall. Fresno State is currently a member of the MWC, but they are a bubble team that could be enticing to the Pac-12 or Big 12 when they move toward another expansion. 

Both conferences would afford more exposure for the Bulldogs as well as revenue, with the Bulldogs bringing competitive football, a passionate fan base and a large recruiting hotbed to either conference. 

The Bulldogs need to make a case for themselves this fall under new leadership, but expect them to be one of the teams snatched up during the next round of expansions that is sure to come in the next few years. 

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