Could Andy LaRoche Break Out in 2009?

For years, we have been hearing about the promise of Andy LaRoche—the younger brother of Adam.

Fantasy owners have waited with bated breath for him to hit the majors and perform with the same type of promise (frustrating or not).

In 2004, he hit 23 HR between two levels of Single-A.  In 2005, he totaled 30 HR in Single- and Double-A.  He has a career minor league average of .295 in 1,800 AB. 

It just seemed like a matter of time before he assumed his role as the Dodgers 3B of the future, but he fell flat in his major league debut in ‘07 and ultimately was shipped to Pittsburgh as part of the trade that imported Manny Ramirez last season.

After the trade, things went from bad to worse for LaRoche (.152 average). 

In total, he posted the following numbers in 2008:

At Bats: 223
Batting Average: 166 (37 Hits)
Home Runs: 5
RBI: 18
Runs: 17
Stolen Bases: 2
On-Base Percentage: .252
Slugging Percentage: .256
Batting Average on Balls in Play: .177

The first number that jumps out at me is the BABIP, which is an almost unbelievably low number.  It’s just not possible for someone to hit to that much bad luck, is it?

While I wouldn’t necessarily believe that his minor league career average would translate to the majors, the number that he showed last season is just not accurate as well.  A big time improvement is likely.

From a power standpoint, that has all but disappeared since his early years in the minors. 

Playing in the high-powered Pacific Coast League, he managed:

• 10 HR in 202 AB in 2006
• 18 HR in 265 AB in 2007
• 5 HR in 123 AB in 2008

Yes, the 2007 number would have put him on pace for over 35 HR, but the other two seasons are not very inspiring. 

It’s a hitter’s league, and for me to believe that he’s got a chance to be a power bat in a major league line-up, I’d have liked to have seen a little bit more.

He is all but guaranteed a spot in the everyday lineup, however, which certainly makes him intriguing, if nothing else.

What other options do the Pirates really have?  Eric Hinske?  Ramon Vazquez?  Neil Walker, maybe, could eventually push him, but he hit just .245 last season at Triple A.

Another player who was expected to be a huge contributor, Walker seems to have fallen even flatter then LaRoche.

What would I expect from him in 2009? 

Let’s take a look:

.266 (117-440), 17 HR, 71 RBI, 68 R, 3 SB, .296 BABIP, .342 OBP, .436 SLG

Some would say that this projection is a little bit aggressive, especially given what he has done at the major league level.  I simply can’t ignore the player that he has proven to be in the past, however. 

He has too much talent to believe that he is nothing more than a .200 hitter—barely going to top 10 HR.  At 25 years old, now is a good time for him to show the world a little bit of his promise.

The projections here are based on him hitting towards the bottom of a weaker Pirates' batting order.  That is not going to afford him many chances to score runs, nor is he going to drive in a ton. 

These are decent numbers and would make him usable as a short-term injury fill-in for fantasy owners, but the numbers just aren’t there to consider using him—except for in the deepest of formats.

What do you think?  Am I being aggressive?  Do you think he may break out even further?

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