Penn State Sanctions: Don't Expect a Preseason Mass Exodus from Penn State

As the drama unfolds around Penn State, at least one question people have has been answered by Bruce Feldman of CBS Sports: When it comes to grabbing Penn State football players, is it re-recruiting or poaching? Feldman puts it quite simply:

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You can call it recruiting or you can call it poaching. The reality is college sports has always been a cutthroat business. By now, I just shrug my shoulders at this stuff.

Truth be told, coaches don't get fired for not graduating players. They get fired for losing football games. These guys are salesmen. I've seen up close how the recruiting process works, and if you think your favorite coach or school hasn't even negative recruited at some point, you're kidding yourself.

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Par for the course in the grand scheme of things. 

There are some, like Gregg Doyel, also of CBS Sports, who are trumpeting the all-too-familiar horn of "loyalty" and character. If the Penn State players stay, they are somehow courageous men of character who are more than just football players; they're men to be admired, as Doyel says:

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And if they choose to stay, well, I'll choose to admire them—because few qualities are more admirable than loyalty.

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Call me crazy, but they're ball players. Some will stay. Some will go. The guys who leave are no worse or better than the ones who stay. Different strokes for different folks, and all that jazz.

However, one thing can be certain: Do not expect a mass exodus from the Penn State program. This is not because of the 25-or-so guys who preached solidarity, and not because of the chance to be admired for staying at the school you're already at. It's not because people are terribly gung ho to stay with Bill O'Brien, either. 

No, don't expect a rash of defections now because, simply put, it's too close to the season. Those coaches who are spending time trying to woo Penn Staters right now? They're desperate guys looking for talent. Or, in the case of Lane Kiffin, they're a rich guy looking to get richer as he makes a title push. As Chris Huston of CBS Sports puts it, pretty bluntly:

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I think one reason some coaches aren't poaching Penn State players is that there just aren't many worth poaching.

— Chris Huston (@HeismanPundit) July 26, 2012

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He's partly correct.

There is some legit talent on the Penn State roster, obviously headlined by Silas Redd, Gerald Hodges and Anthony Fera. Hodges, a senior linebacker, has been absent from most discussion, but both Redd and Fera have interest from elite programs. Redd's drama with University of Southern California has been well documented and, as ESPN reports, Fera's been the one reaching out to the Texas Longhorns as the PSU ship sinks.

For the most part, college coaches are looking at what they have and what they are planning to get and weighing their options. As a notoriously confident bunch, the coaches see that 25-scholarship number for 2013 and believe that, through recruiting, they can land a better player for four-to-five years than the one they can get from Penn State for two or three seasons. 

In other words, for every one Penn State player you take, that is one recruit that you do not get to ink.

Adding in the fact that it is late July and camp invites and numbers are already set up, now you've got a logjam where getting things set up for Penn State transfers is concerned. Your 110 spots are already selected.

Everyone from your incoming freshmen to returning starters to the preferred walk-ons you see promise in, are all set to leave their houses to come to camp. Not sure how "into" recruiting you all are, but even a call or a note telling a preferred walk-on to "sit tight" after promising him camp in the fall is not a good look for a coach.

No, don't expect a mass exodus from State College, Pennsylvania—at least, not yet. There are too many hoops to jump through, too much confidence in their ability on the trail and too many things to try and align in an effort to get a kid who will probably need to redshirt to get up to speed. 

However, if a full blown diaspora is what you are looking for, look to December and January.

On the Penn State end, they're staring down the barrel of a season full of transition and tough media coverage, plus no bowl reward.

On the "everyone else" end, coaches will get to see what Penn State has compared to what they have, and will be further along in the recruiting process where holes will be more apparent. December to January is when, if they happen, the true large-scale moves will be coming to the Nittany Lions roster.