Why the Atlanta Braves Will Win the NL East

Or better yet why the Mets will not win the division.

As I was reading another fan's post regarding the NL East, I saw many false statements in his argument and the main one was that the braves would finish third and the Metropolitans will win the division.

First off, the last two teams are not very hard to predict. They will be the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals. The Florida Marlins are a very talented team and although trading away Miguel Cabrerra and Dontrelle Willis, they will improve upon last seasons 72 wins.

The Marlins do not have the depth to compete for the division crown past mid-June, early-July. They have an abundance of talent and are a very strong organization from top to bottom, but they do not yet have enough key players to compete all season long.

As for the Washington Nationals, they too are a talented team that added Lastings Milledge and are looking to get their head above water and achieve at least a .500 winning percentage by the end of the season. Their main problems are injuries and lack of starting pitching. They have a bunch of No. 4 and five starters with exception to John Patterson.

Many remember he pitched great a couple of years ago, but could not stay healthy in 2007. If he returns to the staff and performs up to his potential, then they have a very good chance at .500. Manager Manny Acosta has done a good job with this team and he will have them close to the top at the end of the season, but they are two good starting pitchers away from true postseason talk.

While the Phillies are a very talented team and their lineup in nearly unstoppable, I think the additions of other clubs within the division will have them ending up in third place in the division. I do not think that they will have enough starting pitching when September comes.

The Mets did a good job in acquiring  Santana, that is apparent. They have improved, but they have some older players in key positions, for instance first base, left field, and right field. They also did lose a little bit of depth in the Lastings Milledge deal and they will probably win the wild card, and the rivalry of the late 90s will return between the Braves and the Mets. 

As for my beloved Braves, they appear to be in the familiar position of underdog for only the 10th time in the past 17 or so seasons. Yes, they did lose slugger Andruw Jones and his incredible defense, but with that they lost a rally-killer as well. They lost some leadership, but they also lost strikeouts and gained average upon acquiring Mark Kotsay.

He is no Andruw Jones, but I guarantee he will not strike out as much and will not hit into as many double plays as Andruw. One thing that will be key and make the offense much better is the consistency that at the plate that Kotsay will bring as opposed to the often streaky Jones.

Brain McCann is back and healthy. If he can remain healthy all season, he should lead the back end of the line-up. The big key in the line-up will be Kelly Johnson. If he can hold the fort down as a top of the lineup guy and play 150+ games, the Braves should have a good shot. If he falters I think that you may see Matt Diaz get some at bats in the two-hole, which will put a lot more runners on for Chipper and Mark Teixiera. Obviously, Chipper has to stay healthy and he has vowed to play at least 150 games this season. 

The main thing that held the Braves back last season was the No. 3-5 guys in the rotation. Getting Glavine back solidifies the No. 3 hole and the acquisition of Jair Jurrjens could fill the No. 4 hole.

The big question mark and this is no secret, is Mike Hampton's return and if he can stay healthy and return to his 2004 form. If so, the Braves will have one of the best pitching rotations in the Bigs.

As for Glavine he will have a much better defense behind him than he has in the last three or so years with Chipper and Texiera at the corners. Kelly Johnson gives him a legit second baseman although his defense is shaky at times.

You can't get much better that Jose Reyes but Yunel Escobar is a solid and developing shortstop that has an extremely strong arm and is comparable to Rafael Furcal.

Jeff Francouer has the strongest arm in baseball and has finally learned how to harness it; not to mention very underrated range in the outfield. Shawn Green can't even hold his jockstrap. Mark Kotsay is solid in center and the Matt Diaz has really improved and can run a little bit more than Moises Alou.

I see Tommy returning to his old form being back at Turner Field, and I think he will end up averaging 6.2 innings per outing.

I didn't even mention the bullpen which is obviously the best in the East. No matter what, though, with all the talent in the division I expect all five teams to finish the season at least 10 games within each other. For the Marlins, that may be a stretch but they will not be far off because of how even the talent is throughout the division.

To the Mets fans: Johan might give you one great outing every fifth day, but how many times did he carry the twins to the World Series? The talent is very similar to what he had in Minnesota with the exception of the pitching staff that is a little deeper than he had with the Twins.

But Johan can't play the outfield so what are you going to do the other four days he doesn't play? Suppose he is pitching decent and it's a 3-3 game in the fifth inning with two outs and the bases loaded. Can he hit?????