MLB Rumors: Miami Marlins Would Be Wise to Keep Josh Johnson

The Miami Marlins are cleaning house and, as Hanley Ramirez knows all too well, no one is safe. Josh Johnson needs to be the exception.

For the time being, it sounds like that wish will come true. The Marlins, who sit 13.5 games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East and nine games behind the Atlanta Braves in the wild-card race, are clearly throwing in the towel. But they aren't ready to trade their ace (via ESPN's Jayson Stark):

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An official of one club that spoke with the Marlins' brass told the Daily Rumble on Wednesday that he would estimate the odds Johnson stays in Miami at "95 percent."

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It's no secret that Josh Johnson has had his struggles in 2012. 

Normally known for his propensity to deliver a quality start almost every time he took the mound, the 28-year-old has put out just 13 in 20 appearances, the worst percentage since his rookie year in 2006. 

The ERA, at 4.14, is up. The WHIP, at 1.337, is up. The strikeouts are down. He's getting hit harder than usual.

But an ace is an ace. Or something like that. The point is, no matter the struggles, Josh Johnson is still Miami's ace. 

I understand the need to become a seller at the deadline if you fall out of contention, and when the time is right, I would even understand the need to say "so long" to Johnson himself.

The time just isn't right, though.

Johnson's value is at an all-time low. He's not going to return fair value, and the Marlins own him through 2013. So what's the point? If he was having yet another All-Star season, and the chances of competing during the last two years of his contract happened to be slim, then yes, trade him. Get the right amount of value for him, though. 

If management had reason to believe he was only going to get worse, then trading him now would also be a smart move. But Johnson is in a transition period.

Not only did he undergo Tommy John surgery in 2007, but Johnson had to cut his 2011 season short due to right shoulder inflammation. Because of the injury problems, he is having to change the way he pitches. 

The result is clear in his pitch type and velocity. His fastball velocity is down. He's throwing way more curveballs, less sliders and less changeups. 

Johnson isn't able to bring it with nearly as much aggression as he used to be able to, so his success now hinges on being able to find the spots in the strike zone.

Currently, as evidenced by his 0.86 GB/FB ratio and 24 percent line-drive rate, his control isn't quite there. He's leaving balls up in the zone. 

But Johnson is a smart, talented pitcher. Once he starts getting more comfortable with his new style of pitching, the results will come. In fact, those positives results have started to appear this summer.

In five June starts, Johnson went 2-2 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.069 WHIP. July hasn't been as great, as suggested by his 5.56 ERA in four starts, but the low WHIP (1.191) and low walk rate (just four BB in 22.2 innings) means he's been a little unlucky. 

On the surface, trading Johnson while the ship is sinking might seem like the best decision. But there are just too many underlying factors that point to the contrary. 

Having a fire sale can be a fine way to build for the future. Just know that Josh Johnson should be a part of that future. 

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