Draft Preparation: Second Base

There are far fewer good options at second base than there is at first, so finding your team a solid player at this position is not only more important, but also tougher to do.  There are going to be teams that have below average players at the position, simply because there aren’t twelve solid players to choose from.

To add even more pressure to the pick, if you were to have a guy who ends up injured, it will be very difficult to find a suitable replacement.  Where will each second baseman be drafted? 

The following list will give you a good idea where you can expect the guy you are looking at will be selected.

Round One

Even though he has a fairly lengthy injury history already, Ian Kinsler has turned himself into a late first round pick.  His numbers are intriguing for a guy at second base, and if he can stay healthy he is probably worth it. 

Last year, his season ended six weeks early due to a sports hernia, but he was hitting .319 with 18 homers, 71 RBI, and 26 steals. 

Give him another three weeks and he has 23 homers, 90 RBI, and 30+ steals.  He is a risk, however, if you take him that high due to the fact that he hasn’t been able to top 130 games in his three seasons in the majors.

Round Two

Postseason hip surgery leaves Chase Utley questionable for the season opener, but I assure you that even if he misses the first two weeks of the year that he is worth a first round pick.

The news continues to get better for him however, and all signs are pointing to him being ready for Opening Day. Even though he has dealt with a few injury issues in the past, Utley has been one of the more consistent hitters at any position in the majors, and the chance to get 30 homers and 20 steals from a second baseman who hits well over .300 is a player that I can’t resist.

I have been accused of having a “man crush” on Utley, and if you draft him after the first six or seven picks you are getting great value.

Round Three

Dustin Pedroia turned into the hero for every short guy who wants to play baseball.  Pedroia often looks like he is going to swing his way right out of his shoes, but somehow it works for him. 

He hit .326, scored a whopping 118 runs, hit 17 homers and drove in 83 runs. For a little icing on the cake, the guy also stole 20 bases.  He also walks just as much as he strikes out, which is rare in these times.

He had a pretty significant spike in power and stolen bases in 2008, which is something to keep an eye on in the upcoming season. 

You are probably looking at his ceiling as far as statistics are concerned, and you might be looking at a small step back in ‘09.  But no one gets more out of their God given talent than Pedroia.  He probably won’t be, but perhaps he should be drafted behind the next few guys on this list.

Brandon Phillips has been a great option at second base since he came back to fantasy relevance with the Reds, including 2007 when he went 30/30. 

If Phillips could get his batting average up another 15 points he would most likely get drafted even higher than this. 2008 wasn’t nearly as good as his previous two seasons, but at a position where there are so few good options, Phillips has tremendous value. 

Even on a down year he was a 20/20 player, and although the .261 average was a downer, Phillips should bounce back this year. With the emergence of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon should see plenty of pitches to hit in 2009.

Brian Roberts is another guy who is very close to being an elite option at second in any fantasy draft. His batting average could be a little higher, as he is usually in the .280-.290 range, but it is the lack of power that causes him to fall this far.

You can’t argue with Roberts’ speed, however. In the last three years, he has stolen anywhere from 36-50 bases.

He is also notorious for having little nagging injuries that cause him to miss 20-25 games during the year, although the last two seasons he has played over 155 games. If your team is set with power at other positions and is in need of some speed, Roberts is a great candidate if you are picking at the end of the third round.

Round Four

He took the fantasy world by storm in the second half of 2008, and now Alexei Ramirez is shooting up draft boards in 2009. The “Cuban Missile” brings a rare combination of speed and power, and he even hits near .300.

This isn’t a fly-by-night guy who is going to fade in his second season, Ramirez almost started last year in the majors and when he came up he showed why.

Once he became a starter he never looked back, as Ramirez was on his way to a 21 homer, 13 steal season in just 136 games played (and not all of them as a starter).  Alexei is one of the most debated players in fantasy this offseason, but take it from me, he won’t disappoint you if you are able to draft him anywhere in round four.

Round Five

The man with the best power at the position, Dan Uggla, is far from the first player off the board at the position and that is because of his plate discipline and batting average. Over the last three years, Uggla has averaged hitting 30 homers and driving in 90 runs, however, his batting average has been between .245-.260.

Considering the power he gives you at a position that power is hard to find, Uggla is a great selection in the fifth round.

He is so vilified for his poor plate discipline, that he could even drop a little farther than this. If your team can handle his subpar batting average, Uggla could be a nice addition to your team as he will always give you an advantage in power over your opponents, as they will most likely have players at second base who don’t hit homers like Uggla can.

Round Seven

Robinson Cano could be the most underrated player in fantasy for the 2009 season. Here is a guy who has hit .342 and .306 over the last two years with improving power numbers before a big step back last season.

I’m not exactly sure why everyone has jumped off of his bandwagon so quickly and completely.  The guy is still very young, and although his desire comes into question, there is no doubt that he is a talented player.  

I am expecting a nice bounce back from Cano in 2009, with a .315 average with 17 homers and 82 RBI.  If I was making the pick, I would most likely draft him in front of Uggla but a lot also depends on the rest of your team.  

If you are in need of power, you would have to pick Uggla, but if you don’t have a lack of power I would pick Cano first.

This is where the huge drop off in talent comes for second base. If you don’t get one of the above options, the position will likely be a question mark for you all season long. There are a couple guys below that could serve you well, but they are hardly safe options. Try to get one of the eight players above.

Round 10

When he came into the league, Howie Kendrick was dubbed “a batting title waiting to happen.” Well, so far he has been nothing but “a DL stint waiting to happen.” Although he has shown that he is capable of hitting at the major league level, Kendrick has yet to play more than 92 games in any of his first three seasons. 

The guy was a .359 lifetime hitter in the minors, so there’s no denying his talent, but if he’s out of the lineup all the time he doesn’t do you any good.

Kendrick is over rated in drafts in my opinion, mostly because he has also been very limited in the power and steal department, so if you draft him just know that you are getting a guy who will hit for a very good average, but should top out at 10-12 homers and 65-70 RBI.

Also, if you get more than a half dozen stolen bases, consider yourself lucky.

Round 12

A pleasant surprise for fantasy owners looking for help in the middle infield in 2008 was the Royals’ Mike Aviles. Many people were waiting for him to cool down all year long, but if you look back at his minor league history, this guy could be here to stay. 

At AAA in 2007, Aviles hit .296 with 17 homers and 77 RBI. For that fine season he was named the Royals’ Minor League Player of the Year. 

And while not too many people had heard of him, he followed that up last season with more great numbers. Combining his AAA and major league numbers over 153 games, Aviles hit 20 homers and drove in 93 runs.

I’m not sure you should pick him expecting that, but in this part of the draft getting a middle infielder with that kind of potential is a great pick.

Round 13

Because he plays in the abyss that is Seattle baseball, Jose Lopez quietly was one of the top producers at the position. Apparently, there’s someone outside of Felix Hernandez that deserves fantasy attention up there. Lopez hit .297 with 17 homers and 89 RBI.

So, the big question is, can this guy do it again?  Because if he can, he is perhaps the steal of the draft in round 13. I believe he will be productive again, and give you good value in this round, but there are a few reasons to be careful how fast you pick him.  First, his batting average has fluctuated wildly over the past few seasons. 

In the last four years from 2008 back to 2005, Lopez hit .297, .252, .282, and .247 respectively. Unfortunately, if he keeps that pattern up he is due for about a .250 average in 2009.

Second, his RBI have followed a similar pattern as he has driven in 89, 62, and 79 over the past three seasons. So, it appears that Lopez lasts this long because he probably should. However, if you still don’t have a second baseman at this point of the draft, I would take a shot on him, you could be drafting a gem.

Round 15

A career journeyman, Mark DeRosa was acquired by the Cleveland Indians to hold down their third base position in the offseason, but will retain his 2B eligibility for 2009. DeRosa had an incredible spike in the power department last year, and it has fantasy players hoping he can do it again.

However, I have my reservations. First, DeRosa’s career high in homers in a season before last season was 13. In 2008, he hit 21. Last season he scored 103 runs, besting his previous career high by an astounding 25. He had 14 more RBI than he had ever had before. 

Now if DeRosa was 24 or 25 years old, I would be saying how much hope there is for the future with this guy.

However, DeRosa will turn 34 at the end of February, and most guys don’t start having their best seasons in their mid-30s. If you pick him here, DeRosa should be a decent player on your roster. Please don’t go stretching for him in the eighth round and expect the same production again.

Round 16

Kelly Johnson introduced himself to fantasy players in 2007 with a solid...276/16/68/9 season, and he was instantly on people’s radars for 2008.  Oh, and they expected so much more.

Unfortunately, Johnson took a small step back in almost every category last season. There will undoubtedly be a team in your league that will hold out until very late in the draft waiting for Kelly Johnson, figuring they will stack their team everywhere else. 

This team will be disappointed. He is about to turn 27, so there is still hope for improvement in the future. 

However, looking at past statistics, expecting a big spike is just unrealistic.

Ok, so he did hit 23 homers one year in the minors.  That was also eight years ago, and at single A. Johnson also strikes out WAY too much for a guy with his numbers. One-hundred and thirteen Ks in 150 games is far too many for a guy who only hits 12-15 home runs. Some people really like Kelly Johnson, my advice is to let them have him.

Round 17

Rickie Weeks has done nothing but tease his fantasy owners since 2005 when his combined major and minor league numbers were Utley-like. That year in 151 games, Weeks hit 25 homers, drove in 90 runs, and stole 25 bases.

Fantasy owners everywhere were drooling like a fat guy at an all you can eat buffet.  The huge red flag was the fact that he hit .320 in the minors in 55 games, and just .239 in the majors.

Well, ever since then Weeks has either been injured or struggling. In only one season has his average been above .240, and he only played 95 games that year. 

Weeks has been able to stay more healthy each season, but the Brewers showed exactly how much they trusted him when they brought in Ray Durham at the trade deadline last year.

Until he can get his batting average up, he will never be a good fantasy player. Weeks should not be a starter on your team.

Later Rounds or Undrafted

Placido Polanco (DET); Mark Ellis (OAK); Orlando Hudson (???); Akinora Iwamura (TB); Felipe Lopez (ARI); Aaron Hill (TOR); Clint Barmes (COL); Alexi Casilla (MIN); Blake DeWitt (LAD)

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