Playing Pepper 2009: Milwaukee Brewers

As the players start getting themselves ready for another season, I thought it'd be a good idea to do the same.  I contacted a blogger for each major league team and posted them five questions.  This is the result.  You can find the tentative schedule of teams here, and today's main post is right here.

The Cardinals and the Brewers have had an interesting relationship the last couple of years.

The Cubs and Brewers did their best Houston/St. Louis impersonations, battling for first in the division, and along the way the Cards tended to get a little twerked at the team from Milwaukee, and the feeling was mutual.  Between untucked shirts, beanball wars in September, and just some general dislike, games with the Brew Crew have taken on a whole other dimension.

To represent that team from the good land, I talked to Jim from Bernie's Crew about losing two big pitchers and the young stud that is still there.

C70: What is the expectation level of the fanbase after losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets?  Do they still plan to contend for the division, or is a slide expected?

BC: The fanbase is largely overreacting to the loss of CC Sabathia and (the likely loss of) Ben Sheets this winter.  While the starting rotation is obviously less talented and deep than the 2008 rotation, predictions of the sky falling seem to be a bit ridiculous.

Yovani Gallardo should sit nicely atop the Crew's rotation, even if his workload will be closely monitored throughout the season.  Manny Parra should continue to improve after an up-and-down season in which he still posted a respectable 4.39 ERA.  In fact, his .337 BABIP in 2008 suggests he was unlucky last season and could improve rather dramatically.

Without going into too much depth about the rotation, the overall message is clear.  The 2009 Milwaukee Brewers are due to take a step back in 2009 because their starting rotation is not as formidable as it once was.  The potential drop-off, however, is not nearly as dramatic as most Brewers fans believe.

Milwaukee's offense should bounce back after last season's performance, which saw the likes of Corey Hart, Bill Hall, and even Prince Fielder fall well below their career norms.  Ryan Braun is projected to put up insane numbers in 2009, and the postseason experience can only help a young ballclub's confidence.

Milwaukee more than likely will not win the NL Central, but 85 wins is certainly not out of the question.  Not to mention the fact that Mark Attanasio will pony up the cash near the All-Star break if the Crew is in contention.  He showed that last season.

C70: Will Rickie Weeks ever live up to his early hype?

BC: No.

With that said, Rickie's value has been much misunderstood in most baseball circles.  He is certainly not an All-Star, but I believe he is a league-average second baseman.  The 26-year old has speed to burn on the basepaths and still posted a 94 OPS+ in a down season.  The fact that he can still steal 19 bases, hit 14 home runs, and own an OBP 108 points above his batting average suggests he is still producing for the Brewers. 

Look past the .234 AVG and consider the .342 OBP.  Look past the errors and consider the spectacular plays he can make (and has made) due to his fantastic range at second.  Look past the down season in 2008 and notice the 108 OPS+ he posted in 2007.

Rickie Weeks is not living up to the hype of an All-Star second baseman, but the young man still has value to the Brewers organization.

C70: Is Yovani Gallardo fully healed from his surgery, and if so, is there any reason to think he won't reclaim his early success?

BC: Yes, he is fully healed from his surgery, and there is no reason to suggest he won't pick up where he left off in his short 2008 season.  The injuries have not been to his arm (*knock on wood*), so the raw stuff should still be there this Spring.  Yovani displays fantastic command and a nasty curveball to compliment a mid-90s fastball.  Milwaukee should be fine with Yo heading the starting rotation.

C70: Who is going to close games?

BC: Trevor Hoffman.  That is what he is getting paid $6MM in 2009 to do.

Before you all go berating Hoffman and his "declining stuff," you should note that his fastball velocity jumped about a MPH last season, along with his changeup.  Trevor can still throw the baseball.  That should be quite easy to see, considering his 9.13 K/9 and 1.79 BB/9 rates.

The reason the veteran right-hander struggled last season was the 1.59 HR/9 rate.  That is way above his career norm, and Brewers fans are hoping that stat will regress towards the mean.

Hoffman will not save 50 games and post a 2.00 ERA, but a 30-35 save season with a 3.40 ERA is certainly reasonable to expect.

C70: What are the strongest and weakest parts of the 2009 Brewers going into spring training?

BC: The strongest part of the 2009 Brewers is their offense.  Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun still will anchor the middle of the batting order, and Milwaukee's first baseman is looking for a bounce-back season after a "down year" in which he slugged 34 home runs and posted a .372 OBP.

Corey Hart is unlikely to repeat his epic failure over the second half of last season, while J.J. Hardy has continued to improve every season with Milwaukee.  That trend suggests Brewers fans should expect a jump from his .283/.343/.478 output last season.  From an above-average defensive shortstop, any team in the bigs would gladly take those numbers.

In short, the offense will be just fine in 2009.

The biggest weakness in Milwaukee's 2009 roster is not the talent of the starting rotation, but the extreme lack of depth.  Chris Capuano cannot reasonably be relied upon until late May or early June at the earliest to pitch in big league action, which leaves the likes of Sam Narron and Chris Narveson as the number one call-ups to the rotation.

Some have suggested the Brewers move Carlos Villanueva to a starting role, but Milwaukee has committed to him as a reliever in 2009.  As they should—his 2.12 ERA over 59.1 innings out of the pen last season speaks volumes about his ability.

This leaves the Brewers with five (eventually six) legitimate starting options, as the front office seems extremely reluctant to bring in even a reclamation project like Jason Jennings on a minor league deal.  If a starter goes down in Spring Training, Brewers fans will get to know Chris Narveson rather quickly, and that is not a good thing.

Thanks to Jim for his help on this project.  The Brewers aren't going away as contenders just yet.  Just hopefully we won't see much more of the untucked shirts at Busch this season.