Jason Bay: For Better or Worse 2009

In our continuing series of "For Better or Worse 2009" and community projections, I now give you Jason Bay. To catch up on the rest of the series should you have missed it so far, go here.

Jason Bay began his Boston Red Sox days in 2008 under anything but normal circumstances. To his credit, he acclimated himself to the opportunity quickly and helped propel the team into the Playoffs. While his 184 AB over 49 games (plus another 11 appearances in the postseason) might be a small sample size to make a solid prediction for 2009, they were earn him the 2009 Fire Brand of the American League Award.

Not much more can be said about Jason Bay's 2008 experience in Boston than what was written when he was given the Fire Brand:

"This was a man who wouldn't crave the spotlight; instead (he) performed under its hot light.

In two months as a member of the Red Sox, Bay would hit .293, with nine home runs, 37 runs batted in and 39 runs scored. Over that time, his steady influence filled the chaotic void that had been left by the player he replaced.

If the regular season was his proving grounds in Boston, the postseason would (prove) that he was an impact player, despite the relative lack of fanfare surrounding him. In 51 postseason plate appearances, Bay would hit .341 with 14 hits (three doubles, three home runs, 10 walks) and a 1.105 OPS.

While it's true that the 2008 season may be more remembered for the exit of the sure fire Hall of Famer that proceeded him, Jason Bay's arrival was as much the indelible mark on the season as Ramirez' departure (was)."

But now, instead of relishing in the season that was, it's time to end any "honeymoon period" and look forward to 2009, asking,

"What can we expect of Jason Bay?"

In order to stay true to the spirit of "For Better or Worse", I think we'll have to break the comparison down in two ways: first, we'll compare his entire year both in Pittsburgh and Boston last season; second, we'll compare the full years of the Boston Red Sox left fielders, from Manny Ramirez, to Bay, to the others scattered in between.

The projection systems are not kind to Mr. Bay. While Bill James has him repeating his collective efforts from last season, with numbers that I think would fall in line with what an average season of Jason Bay's career might yield, both Chone and Marcel are consistently conservative. 

While I am not surprised by the lower counting stats (as these systems fairly often lead to low AB totals), I am surprised that both peg Bay's rate stats so far below his career averages. 

I find this even more surprising in the context of a full season at Fenway Park, which as we know, can do wonders for rate stats across the board.

Personally, I tend to agree that Jason Bay's numbers will come very close to his collective efforts between Pittsburgh and Boston last season: mid-.280's average, 30 home runs, and both 100 RBI and runs scored while hitting primarily out of the five hole. 

With regards to improvement from 2008, I would say he won't be more than marginally better.

But in the larger context of 2009 Red Sox left fielders versus their 2008 counterparts, we need to factor in a few more things.

Before looking at these splits, my assumption was that Jason Bay might have more to live up to, considering Manny Ramirez spent half the season in his position.

But to my surprise, and in part due to Manny having spent a portion of last season at DH in David Ortiz's absence (while being replaced by a very unproductive Jacoby Ellsbury), it turns out that Bay would be outperfomring the collective bats of all Red Sox left fielders last season by simply topping his 2008 totals.

How do you think Jason Bay will measure up in 2009?  What do you expect out of his first full season in Boston?