Houston Texans 2012: Stat Predictions for Key Offensive Players

Ravens 20, Texans 13. This score haunts the minds of Houston Texans fans like a lost wallet. The defense did their job, but the offense lost the all-important turnover battle.  

But here’s an alternative explanation: Houston lost by just one foot. The right appendage of Matt Schaub, that is. Everyone, from season ticket holders to NFL beat writers, believes he would have succeeded where T.J Yates did not.  

The man responsible for the first mistake in that Ravens game is now a member of the very same team. Way to go, Jacoby Jones! The confusion over who replaces you as the No. 3 receiver was a lovely parting gift. 

Now Matt is all healed up and the list of competing wideouts is almost as long as Larry King’s divorce chronology. When all is said and done, here is how 2012 will turn out for the players responsible for getting the ball across the goal line.

 

Matt Schaub

Texans fans are convinced his Lisfranc injury was the difference between winning a single playoff game against the Bengals and going to SB XLVI. Schaub is working his way back to full health, and appears to be ready to go. If he could just remain upright for the entire season, that short trip to New Orleans next February could be on his calendar. 

So what will his numbers be coming out of a successful regular season? If 4,000 yards is the new 3,000 yards as some believe, will Matt break that threshold? A better question is: With two running backs like Arian Foster and Ben Tate, will he need to?

The key factor may be the lack of experience in the receiving corps. With only two wideouts currently on the roster who have caught a pass in an NFL game, Foster and tight ends Owen Daniels and James Casey may be more frequent targets.  

This may lower the 8.5 yards per attempt that placed Schaub third in the league last year. His passing yards for 2011 projected for a full season just approach the 4K mark. So his stat line, hopefully going into the playoffs, will look something like this.

• Passing yards: 4250
• Touchdowns: 32
• Interceptions: 12
• Completion percentage: 68%
• Yard per attempt: 8.3
• Rating: 104.6 (based on 347 completions out of 510 attempts)

Arian Foster

The most versatile running back in the league recently announced he has become a vegan. So no four-footed creature or its byproducts will taint his dinner plate. His teammates hope he has retained his hostility for the two-footed variety clad in Riddell helmets and shoulder pads. 

No other runner in the league has the same combination of rushing and receiving skills, and that includes Matt Forte. His size, strength and ability to break tackles compensates for an upright running style that would be rejected by most coaches.  

The right side of the Texans’ offensive line is being reconstructed with components that are largely untested over a full season. But if the changeover from Mike Brisiel and Eric Winston to Antoine Caldwell and Rashad Butler goes as planned, Foster should have a meaty stat line by Week 17.

• Rushing yards: 1675 yards on 350 carries
• Average per carry: 4.8 yards
• 72 receptions for 750 yards
• Touchdowns: 17 rushing/3 receiving 

Andre Johnson

When your list of medical procedures threatens to overshadow your statistics, we may be looking at a career that has reached its tipping point.

Suffer not one but two hamstring injuries and miss over half the regular season, and some might believe the end is in sight. 

Then turn around and prove all the doubters wrong by catching 13 passes for 201 yards and a TD in the playoffs. Passes that were thrown by a fifth round rookie QB, no less.  

Such is the greatness that is Andre Johnson. In fact, over the last three seasons Pro Football Focus ranks No. 80 as the best in an obscure-but-significant stat: Yards Per Route Run.

 As if any further proof is needed. 

• 65 receptions for 960 yards
• Yards per reception: 14.1
• Touchdowns: 8

Ben Tate

When compared to Arian Foster, the former War Eagle may not be a “Did you see that?” kind of back.

He lacks his teammate's uncanny ability to repeatedly break tackles and his receiving ability is good but not great. But, Tate has better straight-ahead speed and can sidestep tacklers when necessary.

Paired with the former rushing champ, they are the most potent tandem around.  

This type of depth is a luxury no other team in the league enjoys. And it's the reason why Houston runs more than it passes, a strategy that wears down opposing defenses over the course of the game.

• Rushing yards: 850 yards on 185 carries
• Average per carry: 4.8 yards
• 28 receptions for 250 yards
• Touchdowns: 7 rushing/1 receiving

Kevin Walter

The biggest question regarding the Texans offense is the receiving corps. The biggest question within that question: Does Kevin Walter possess the necessary qualities of a true No. 2 receiver?  

Gary Kubiak still directs his offense using the same run-first philosophy he brought from Denver. This explains why Houston is one of the few teams who run more plays on the ground than through the air. 

This may also explain why he sticks with Walter. When he looks on the field he sees Ed McCaffrey, the No. 2 receiver for the Super Bowl-winning Broncos. McCaffery was a more accomplished receiver than his Texans counterpart. 

But as of now, Walter is the only wideout on the roster other than Andre Johnson to catch a pass in an NFL regular-season game. Count on him to line up across from Johnson until a rookie or free agent knocks him out of the starting lineup. 

• 35 receptions for 428 yards
• Yards per reception: 12.8
• Touchdowns: 4

James Casey

Since his crosstown move from Rice University to Reliant Stadium in the 2009 draft, the Texans have been trying to figure out where this guy fits. He started out as a tight end, was assigned the backup fullback role in 2011, and is expected to play at both positions in the upcoming season. 

But he is not the starter at tight end and the backup is likely to be Garrett Graham. Nor is he experienced as a lead blocker type of fullback like the departed Lawrence Vickers. 

Was free agent FB and original Texan Moran Norris brought in to pave the way for Foster and Tate? Are UDFA Jason Ford or converted LB Derrell Smith capable of getting the job done?  

Will this flexibility allow Casey to line up opposite Owen Daniels on two TE sets? Will Coach Kubiak finally find a consistent role for one of the most gifted athletes on the roster? 

Houston fans have tired waiting for answers to all these questions. They just want to see the man nicknamed Thor unleashed!

• Rushing yards: 65 yards on 15 carries
• Average per carry: 4.3 yards
• 33 receptions for 363 yards
• Touchdowns: 2 rushing/4 receiving

The Tight Ends

A typical progression on a Matt Schaub passing attempt is Andre Johnson, a tight end, then whoever else is open. That tight end is often Owen Daniels, headed for a giant leap in his career until an ACL tear in 2009. 

Two seasons are needed to make it back from such a devastating injury, and 2011 was that second year. Daniels could breakout in 2012, except running the ball is the top priority for the Texans. Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez-like totals for Houston TE’s are not going to happen. 

That will not alter the importance of the position for Daniels or his backup, Graham. And let’s not forget James Casey, whose H-back qualities make him look a Hernandez clone. So look for Schaub to spread the ball around and keep the defense on its heels. 

Owen Daniels

• 55 receptions for 710 yards
• Yards per reception: 12.9
• Touchdowns: 3  

Garrett Graham

• 15 receptions for 178 yards
• Yards per reception: 11.9
• Touchdowns: 1

The No.3 Receiver

Welcome to Texans Fight Club! Where we throw together two draft choices and an undrafted free agent and hope a No. 3 receiver walks out under his own power. Their OTA performances at Methodist Training Center gave a preview of the battle to come. 

UDFA Lestar Jean seems to have the advantage over 2012 draft picks Devier Posey and Keshawn Martin. His season on injured reserve healed his shoulder and familiarized him with Gary Kubiak’s playbook.  The chance to observe Andre Johnson and learn how it’s done at this level maximized his prospects. 

Third-rounder Posey played just three games for Ohio State last year due to a pair of five-game suspensions. This lack of playing time affected his conditioning, but he worked on timing by catching 500 tennis balls a day. This may make the pigskin look as big as a beachball, but an NFL game is no day by the shore. 

Keshawn Martin, on the other hand, demonstrated his hands are as good as his speed. They have virtually handed him the punt return job, since Jacoby Jones and his hands of stone are now Baltimore’s concern. 

All three will get a shot at showing what they can do, until someone claims the title.

Lestar Jean

• 32 receptions for 424 yards
• Yards per reception: 13.3
• Touchdowns: 3  

Devier Posey

• 18 receptions for 218 yards
• Yards per reception: 12.1
• Touchdowns: 3  

Keshawn Martin

• 24 receptions for 350 yards
• Yards per reception: 14.6
• 52 punt returns for 475 yards
• Touchdowns: 2 receiving/1 return