6 MLB Managers on the Hot Seat Heading into Season's Second Half

The second half of a given Major League Baseball season is always about narrowing down the list of contenders, and that's going to be extra difficult this year. A total of 19 teams are over .500 at the break, and the extra wild-card berth to be had in either league means there's less incentive for the teams that are barely in the hunt to give up.

That's one thing to keep an eye on as we speed toward October. The other thing to keep an eye on (besides all the other stuff, of course) is the small collection of managers who will be managing to save their jobs. 'Tis the season when hot seats get even hotter.

Not even Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will be able to rest easy. He's guided the Phillies to five straight NL East championships and a World Series title in 2008, but there's a chance that he could end up being a casualty of the team's highly disappointing 2012 campaign.

He's not the only big-name manager with a lot riding on the second half. Here's a look at six managers whose seats are the hottest heading into the second half.

6. Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers

"Wait, this guy isn't suggesting that the Tigers will actually fire Jim Leyland in the middle of the season, is he?"

If that's what you're thinking, don't worry. That's not what I'm going for here. I'll be shocked if Leyland is let go at any point in the second half.

This doesn't mean that he's not heading into the second half with a lot to prove, though. His Tigers have been one of baseball's most disappointing teams to this point in the season, and there may not be a place for Leyland in Detroit in 2013 if the Tigers don't pick it up.

Parting ways with him wouldn't be at all difficult, mind you. He's only under contract until the end of this season. If the Tigers miss out on the postseason and decide to go a new direction, no firing will be necessary.

To be fair to Leyland, he can only be blamed so much for the team's struggles this season. The Tigers' offense has been inconsistent outside of Austin Jackson, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. The team's fielding has been atrocious. The starting rotation has been mediocre outside of Justin Verlander. The bullpen has been equally adventurous.

The good news for Leyland is that things started to come together in the days leading up to the break, as the Tigers ended the first half on a five-game winning streak. They'll begin the second half of the season just 3.5 games out of first place in the AL Central.

The Central is as winnable as ever this season, and that's a big reason why there's pressure on Leyland to get it done. If the Tigers fail to win the American League's weakest division, the Tigers will have an excuse not to invite him back for another season. 

If the Tigers finish in third place, a spot they currently occupy, the Tigers will have every excuse not to invite Leyland back.

5. Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia Phillies

I wrote an article on All-Star Tuesday explaining that the Charlie Manuel situation is a touchy one. As disappointing as the Phillies have been this season, the notion of Manuel losing his head doesn't have much legs.

The Phillies aren't about to fire Manuel as a means to light a fire under the team's posterior. That's something that could work with an underachieving team, but the Phillies don't qualify as one of those. Given all their injuries and various shortcomings, they're right where they should be.

However, the second half could still very well end up being Manuel's swan song in Philadelphia. Though Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino could be playing for other teams by the time August rolls around, the Phillies will still have Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee all healthy and playing at the same time for the first time all season.

So regardless of what kind of moves Ruben Amaro, Jr. makes at the deadline, the Phillies are going to be a stronger team on paper in August and September than they were at any point in the first few months of the 2012 season. Ending the season on a positive note after so much negativity is not asking a lot of Manuel and his squad.

If the losing continues, Manuel could be the casualty of a mercy firing sometime late in the season. If not that, then the Phillies could easily decide to let Manuel go during the offseason. He's only under contract through the 2013 season and there wouldn't be a huge public outcry if he were to be let go, so what the heck?

It's only becoming clearer that the Phillies are going to need to take the franchise in a new direction in the very near future. They could commit to that as early as July 31 this season. 

If they decide to go that new direction, they may as well go for it with a new manager.

4. Fredi Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves

It's been a strange season for Fredi Gonzalez's Braves, as they've just had a hard time getting into a rhythm.

They've been a feast or famine team, with win streaks that are swiftly followed by losing streaks and vice versa. They ended the first half with a four-game win streak, but it's hard to take it for granted that this will lead to good things in the second half given the team's track record in 2012.

The biggest problem facing Gonzalez is a shortage of starting pitching. The Braves boast a rotation ERA of 4.11, and they've lost top starter Brandon Beachy for the season due to Tommy John surgery. They're fortunate that Jair Jurrjens has pitched so well since returning from his stint in the minors, but his efforts won't be enough. Others will have to step up.

Nevertheless, the blame won't lie entirely with the starting pitching if the Braves miss out on the postseason again. Just as he did last year when he ran the team's vaunted bullpen into the ground, Gonzalez will deserve his share of the blame.

And indeed, missing out on the playoffs this season would be an even greater offense. Based on talent alone, this is a Braves team that should be capable of capturing one of the two wild-card spots. It won't reflect well at all on Gonzalez if Terry Collins and his upstart Mets team leapfrog the Braves in the second half and sneak into the postseason.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported during spring training that the pressure was on Gonzalez to have a good year. While one supposes that this year hasn't been a total disaster for him, Gonzalez and the Braves have hardly blown away peoples' expectations.

So we'll see. If the Braves qualify for October baseball, Gonzalez can stay. If not, he can go.

3. Bobby Valentine, Boston Red Sox

Bobby Valentine has done a commendable job with the Red Sox this season. The team may only be 43-43 at the break, but that should be considered a victory given how many bodies the Red Sox have had on the disabled list all season. To boot, some of their star players (Adrian Gonzalez, Jon Lester) have underperformed.

Plus, let's not forget that it was looking like Bobby V was going to be fired weeks ago. If he hadn't fixed the team's bullpen, he probably would have been axed.

But make no mistake about it, Valentine is far from being out of the woods. 

It's easy to make excuses for Valentine now (as I just did). It will be less easy to make excuses for him in the second half. The Red Sox are due to become healthy for the first time all season once players like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury are activated. It also stands to reason that underperforming players like Gonzalez and Lester are going to snap out of it.

The question is whether the Red Sox as a team will snap out of it. There will be no moral victories in the second half. It will be playoffs or bust.

Asking them to win the AL East is asking too much, but securing a wild-card berth is very much an attainable goal. The Red Sox will start the second half just 2.5 games out in the wild-card race, and they're going to be a lot stronger than the other teams in the race once they get healthy.

The Red Sox are not committed to Bobby V for the long haul. He only has a two-year contract, and there have been rumblings that he wasn't Ben Cherington's first choice to succeed Terry Francona.

If he doesn't lead the team to the playoffs this season, the Red Sox could let him go and search for a better choice, preferably one who's less of a lightning rod for controversy.

2. Dusty Baker, Cincinnati Reds

It's been true from the start that the 2012 season is a true "show me" campaign for Dusty Baker. This year's Reds team has more talent than any Reds team he's managed to this point, including the 2010 team that won the NL Central.

So far, things could be worse for Baker's Reds. They're 47-38 and in second place in the NL Central. That puts them on a pace to win about 90 games this season, and they would be one of the NL's two wild-card teams if the season ended today.

However, things could also be better for Baker's Reds. They were in first place in the division for several weeks before the upstart Pittsburgh Pirates overtook them a few days before the All-Star break. They're also in no position to coast toward October knowing that a playoff spot awaits them either way.

The St. Louis Cardinals are breathing down their necks in the Central, and the NL wild-card race is nearly as crowded as the AL wild-card race. The Reds will be walking a tightrope in the second half, and that means Baker will be walking a tightrope as well.

Keep in mind that Baker is only under contract through the end of this season. He was in a similar situation in 2010, and that year he led the Reds to a division title. He gave the Reds an excuse to invite him back.

He'll have to do that again if he wants to be in Cincinnati in 2013. 

1. Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies started the 2011 season by going 17-8 in the month of April, opening up a 4.5-game lead in the NL West in the process.

Ever since then, the Rockies are 89-141. That's a winning percentage of .387, which is not good.

There are many reasons why the Rockies have been so bad. They're mainly tied to the team's pitching, which has been a major problem in each of the last two seasons. 

The Rockies' pitching woes forced Jim Tracy to make a desperate decision in June, as he decided that he would install a four-man rotation in which each starter would be restricted to a 75-pitch limit. 

Innovative...but less than smart. And thus far, the returns haven't been good.

There's little reason to think things are going to be any better for Tracy's Rockies in the second half of the season. They're on pace to lose right around 100 games, and that's something this franchise has never done. 

The worst season in franchise history? That's pretty good incentive to fire Tracy.

The fact that the team is well on its way to finishing in fourth place in the NL West or worst for a third straight season? That's also pretty good incentive to fire him.

Barring a miracle, I'd say Tracy is doomed.

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