NBA Finals Preview: Cavs, King James Can't Hang with the Spurs

The 2007 NBA Finals are a study in contrasts. San Antonio has advanced to the Finals for the fourth time in the
Tim Duncan era, while the Cavs are making their first trip.

The Spurs are led by Tim Duncan, the game's most versatile big man; the Cavs rely on the dazzling and dominant LeBron James. And where the Spurs are all about trust and teamwork, the Cavs' success springs almost entirely from LeBron's magnificent talents.

Let's break down the matchups.

Point Guards

Tony Parker has been unstoppable this postseason—and no one on the Cavs will be able to slow him down. 

Daniel Gibson did a yeoman's job on Chauncey Billups, but Parker is much quicker than Billups. More to the point, the physicality Gibson used to stifle Chauncey will land him in foul trouble against TP. Parker's drives will also mean plenty of whistles for the Cavalier bigs.

Despite a hobbling case of plantar fasciitis, Larry Hughes' length makes him a better fit against Parker's offensive game. Eric Snow might be called on to harass Jacque Vaughn or defend a slower Spurs guard (maybe Michael Finely or Brent Barry) in the fourth quarter, but he'd be sucking exhaust if matched with Parker.

San Antonio will tag Gibson all series long to reduce the youngster's effectiveness. Hughes, on the hand, has never found a niche in the Cleveland offense. His foot injury, combined with San Antonio's defensive excellence, will make him little more than a pull-up jump shooter in the Finals.

Advantage: Spurs

Shooting Guards

Cleveland's Sasha Pavlovic has a clever first step if not defended properly—but he's little more than a spot-up shooter against an alert D. Unless he draws Brent Barry or gets hot from beyond the arc, expect him to be a non-factor.

On defense, Pavlovic will struggle to keep pace with Finley and Manu Ginobli. As with Parker, expect Ginobli to keep Cleveland's frontline in foul trouble.

Barry is a good passer on set plays and is an excellent three-point shooter. Unfortunately, he can't even defend imaginary players.

Damon Jones is nothing more than a long-range bomber without radar. His shots will come often—but don't expect many of them to land in the hoop.

Hughes will get some time at two-guard and may play decent defense on Manu on some occasions...but not many.

Advantage: Spurs

Small Forward

Bruce Bowen has made his living bullying superstars out of their rhythm—but LeBron James isn't the type to be bullied.

Bowen's physicality will be little more than an annoyance to LeBron. But Bowen is also one of the smartest help defenders in the league—so the question is less "Can LeBron dominate Bruce Bowen?" and more "Can LeBron dominate Bruce Bowen plus Tim Duncan, Robert Horry, and Fabricio Oberto?"

In Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, Rasheed Wallace was flat out scared to challenge LeBron at the hoop. Will the Spurs back down the same way?

Oberto is a solid help defender but ends up in foul trouble way too often. Horry will likely have the unenviable task of being LeBron's crash test dummy—but his wingspan and toughness should alter at least a few of James' shots. Though Duncan won't be intimidated, the Spurs will look to keep him out of foul trouble instead of sending him against LeBron.

The few times those two do converge on the hoop should be epic.

 

On the perimeter, Bowen and Horry will look to sag and give LeBron open jumpers. Horry's length will allow him to affect more of those shots than Bowen. 

The key to LeBron's success will ultimately be the performance of his teammates, Only if they hit their shots will the Cavs offense be able to make headway against the Spurs.

LeBron can rest on defense, given that Bowen is little more than a corner jump shooter. He must be sure to tag Horry and Bowen in the clutch, though, as their open looks down the stretch find the bottom of the net more often than not.

Advantage: Cavs

Power Forwards

No Cavs big man is as accomplished a defender as Mehmet Okur or Kurt Thomas—and Duncan dominated both of them.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas is strong enough, but he can't hang with Duncan on the dribble. Drew Gooden doesn't have the quickness to stop Duncan from spinning by him in the post. Anderson Varejao's flops won't draw many whistles against Duncan—and his energy is sure to land him in foul trouble.

And if Donyell Marshall finds himself guarding Duncan, Timmy D might actually eat him before going in for an uncontested layup.
 

Utah had some success blocking Duncan's baseline spins and digging at his dribbles. Expect to see those tactics from Cleveland, as well as a whole lot of double teaming.

Like James, Duncan will excel only if his teammates make their shots. If they do—goodbye Cleveland.

On offense, Gooden may hit some long jumpers if his defender is drawn away on a double, but he won't do anything else of note. Marshall is a streak shooter—except in the clutch, where he s an automatic miss. Varejao s eager but limited offensive game will be snuffed by Duncan.

Against the Pistons, the Cavs used their physical edge to dominate the boards. Expect Duncan to help neutralize Cleveland's rebounders.

Advantage: San Antonio

Centers

Ilgauskas' offensive game—flat-footed jumpers, awkward hooks, and clumsy drives—will be defused by Duncan and Oberto.

Ziggy actually has a wide repertoire of offensive moves, but a vulnerability to good defenses and a series of major foot operations have crippled his game.

Expect Big Z to be given the freedom to make or miss shots early so that he'll have the spirit to set screens and attack the offensive glass throughout the game.

Oberto is fundamentally sound, moves well without the ball, and is an earnest defender. The key will be his rebounding. Duncan can take care of the Cavs forwards, but it will be up to Oberto to keep Ilgauskas and Varejao off the offensive glass. Without the easy putbacks and open looks generated on second shots, the Cavs offense is prone to stagnation.

Advantage: Even

Coaching

Gregg Popovich is a Hall Of Fame coach who drills his players into a perfect unit. Mike Brown is a good young up-and-comer—but he'll be playing student to Popovich's master.

Brown's offensive schemes also tend to become sluggish when LeBron isn't hitting incredible shots. 

Advantage: Spurs

Preparation

The Spurs had to contend with three very competent and very different teams in the playoffs—and beat them all with relative ease. The Cavs, meanwhile, faced the crippled Wizards, the mediocre Nets, and the disinterested Pistons. 

Expect San Antonio's experience against elite opponents to be their greatest edge in the Finals.

Advantage: Spurs

X-Factors

You can't have a Finals series without a few wild cards. The X-Factors here are the perimeter shooting of each team s supporting cast, the Spurs' ability to keep the Cavs off the offensive glass, and the success of Duncan and LeBron in raising their play and that of their teammates to championship levels.

Advantage: ?

  

Prediction

The Spurs simply have too many ways to score against the Cavs, and won't beat themselves like the Pistons did. LeBron will have one ridiculous game, but San Antonio will keep him otherwise in check. Duncan will earn himself another ring while Dwyane Wade takes a deep breath—he'll still be the only member of the 2003 NBA Draft class to lead his team to a title.

Spurs In 5