Stat Predictions for the Atlanta Falcons' Key Defensive Players

The Falcons defense was very good in 2011, and with new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, it will only get better in 2012. There are quite a few Falcons who should have career years on defense because of the more aggressive attacking scheme.

Nolan will allow the Falcons to have higher sack totals and a much better pass defense than a year ago, and his run defense schemes will continue to keep them towards the top of the league again in 2012. The biggest leap for the Falcons will be in individual statistics, as most players should have the best years of their careers or at least very close to it.

DE John Abraham

Projected Stats

35 Tackles, 11.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 3 Pass Deflections

4 Forced Fumbles, 25 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

John Abraham wasn't excited about seeing another year with him being the only legitimate pass rushing threat, but seeing Nolan come in with more blitzes quells his concern. Heck, no one is happier about the acquisition of coach Nolan than Abraham. He was quoted by the Associated Press (h/t SportsIllustrated.com):

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"No question, he drafted me,'' Abraham said. "That was one of my main reasons for coming back also. I know what kind of coach he is. I know what kind of guy he is. They do a great job of bringing people around who have great character and are great coaches.''

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Abraham made sure that he could also stay close to his home in Atlanta, but his production should increase in a scheme that is known for pulling productivity from talented pass rushers. Abraham should see increases in his sacks in 2012 as part of the more aggressive philosophy.

DE Ray Edwards

Projected Stats

35 Tackles, 6.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 2 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumble, 25 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Ray Edwards was a bit of a disappointment in 2011. He came in as the big free agent signing that Dimitroff has presented every year since he got here. However, he didn't live up to the lofty expectations due to a knee injury and lack of offseason to learn the scheme. Coach Smith has noted that he has been making great strides this offseason (h/t Daniel Cox of AtlantaFalcons.com):

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“Ray is much healthier than he was at the end of the season, like all of our guys,” he said. “We anticipate that he’s going to improve. Working with Mike and the new scheme, there’s a learning curve that all the guys are going through, but I think he’ll do a good job for us.”

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Coach Smith makes a great point. He is in a better scheme for his talents, much healthier and is starting to gel with his teammates. He's going to improve from his 2.5 sack total in 2011. He will still be one of the best run stuffing defensive ends in the game and should be able to create much more pressure in 2012.

DT Corey Peters

Projected Stats

30 Tackles, 4.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 3 Pass Deflections

0 Forced Fumbles, 20 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Corey Peters has shown to be a steal for his selection in the third round of the 2010 draft. He has been a two year starter and has been able to improve his pass rushing skills every year. This year, he is experiencing a small injury setback from what D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported back in June:

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Falcons starting defensive tackle Corey Peters suffered a foot injury this offseason and is expected back by the start of training camp, according to the team.

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However, he should be back in time to solidify his job in training camp again. He also should have a career year in Nolan's scheme, as he will be asked to penetrate even more than he did in the Van Gorder scheme. This will improve not just his run stuffing but his pass rushing should increase as well.

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Projected Stats

25 Tackles, 3.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 2 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 15 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Jonathan Babineaux battled a knee injury in 2011 and was sapped statistically from facing double teams and a higher amount of rotational plays. He should be completely recovered now, and he should get back to his dominating ways on the interior of the line.

Babineaux is still the elder statesman of the Falcons defensive tackles and should be able to continue his career in Atlanta with another 3.0 sacks in 2012. His quick twitch off the line has been part of his talents, and he will only continue to help the younger players learn and grow with the new scheme.

DE Lawrence Sidbury

Projected Stats

20 Tackles, 7.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 1 Pass Deflections

2 Forced Fumbles, 10 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Lawrence Sidbury has been one of the bright spots off the bench for the past few years when it comes to the Falcons pass rush. However, he should have a much better year in 2012 under Mike Nolan's new scheme. He is a pure speed rusher and will remind people of Cameron Wake's performance in limited time under Nolan.

Sidbury should rack up quite a few sacks in the 3-3-5 formations in 2012, and could very easily end up as one of the primary 3-4 LB and 4-3 DE hybrid players that Nolan likes to utilize in his scheme. He is a quick end with a bevy of moves on the outside and should make a name for himself in 2012.

DE Kroy Biermann

Projected Stats

35 Tackles, 4.0 Sacks

1 Interceptions, 2 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 10 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Kroy Biermann has turned from a selection in the fifth round that made people say, "Who?" into someone that has coaches ranting and raving about him. He has been a solid contributor to the Falcons defense for four years now. His position coach Ray Hamilton was happy to have him and John Abraham back this year (h/t Jay Adams of AtlantaFalcons.com):

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Those are our two best defensive end athletes. John Abraham is obviously one of the best pass rushers in the history of the game, and Biermann is one of our up-and-coming guys. Both athletic guys, both help our team in a lot of ways, so we’re very happy to have them back.

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Biermann will enjoy some time at outside linebacker as well. He has proven to be extremely valuable for the Falcons, and expecting him to provide more in coverage should be common this year. He will line up as both a defensive end and a linebacker depending on the formation in 2012.

DT Peria Jerry

Projected Stats

10 Tackles, 1.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 1 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 5 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Peria Jerry is looking to play more of a role in 2012 in the new scheme. His roster spot is safe more due to his light rookie contract than his talent level. There is projection for Jerry to improve with a new scheme and another year removed from ACL surgery. However, as Greg Huseth of BloggingDirty.com states:

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Can we expect more out of Jerry? At this stage I would say no. He has proven to be often injured, and inept when actually on the field. However he does have a potential for being a quality producer for this team in 2012 and the future. Anything Jerry brings to the table will be gravy compared to the minimal amount that he has in the past three seasons

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I'm not projecting much out of Jerry either. At most, I'm expecting him to be more of a run stuffer than anything else in the 2012 defense. He should be able to help clog holes in the middle of the line and is one of the bigger players the Falcons have for the middle of the defense.

LB Sean Weatherspoon

Projected Stats

110 Tackles, 5.0 Sacks

1 Interceptions, 9 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 60 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Sean Weatherspoon is already good. Really good. However, there is going to be a natural progression for the weak-side linebacker out of Missouri that will make him better. Coach Mike Nolan can't wait for it to happen either. Nolan is excited to see what he can do when he is polished and was quoted by Jay Adams of AtlantaFalcons.com: 

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It takes a little bit of time, but like I said, he’s already a good player. It’s one thing when a guy’s not very good and you’re just hoping to get him to the point where he can just get on the field. He’s already on the field and he’s been a good player, so you’re just looking for him to make some strides where he can be a guy that, in some cases, wins the game for you.

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Nolan makes a great point here. Weatherspoon is already a top notch linebacker in the league. He has the potential to be great. This year will mark the start of his Cornelius Bennett style career in the league and hopefully—like Bennett—"Spoon" can lead the Falcons to a Super Bowl—or four.

LB Stephen Nicholas

Projected Stats

65 Tackles, 3.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 2 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 25 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Stephen Nicholas could quietly have an excellent year for the Falcons. He should be playing quite a few more snaps in 2012 than he did in 2011. Partly because of injury, but mainly because he finally has a scheme that fits his talents. Dave Choate at The Falcoholic puts how most view Nicholas best:

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He's also solid enough in coverage, a technically sound tackler and a guy with pretty good athleticism. Mike Nolan should like that combination of skills and natural ability, and I expect Nicholas to have a nice year in 2012.

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So while he isn't gong to be an all-world linebacker, he should at the very least be one of the above average ones. Nicholas is the longest tenured veteran of the group. He also is the one that will have the glory of playing next to Weatherspoon in the two linebacker nickel packages, and that is where he will see the most success.

LB Akeem Dent

Projected Stats

65 Tackles, 0.0 Sacks

0 Interceptions, 2 Pass Deflections

2 Forced Fumbles, 20 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Akeem Dent is the biggest sleeper in camp this year. He should win the job at middle linebacker for the long-term, and he could even challenge Nicholas for time at the other nickel linebacker spot. Dent is known as one of the hardest workers on the team and has been getting more comfortable in the scheme (h/t Chris Vivlamore):

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“You always felt like he was behind because he didn’t have that foundation of the May and the June,” linebacker coach Glenn Pires said. “He came along as the season was going and he was catching up. I thought he was getting more comfortable. It’s starting to show now.”

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And he should use that extra coaching to his advantage. Dent has a chip on his shoulder and wants to be the guy who replaces Curtis Lofton long-term. He could very well be that person, and if he fills his true potential, the Falcons could have found a true steal with Dent.

LB Lofa Tatupu

Projected Stats

25 Tackles, 0.0 Sacks

1 Interceptions, 2 Pass Deflections

0 Forced Fumbles, 10 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Lofa Tatupu was a three-time Pro Bowl player and has been one of the better linebackers in the NFL during his career. However, he was sitting out all of 2011 to both heal up and because teams weren't calling him to see if he could play. He almost retired earlier this year and as Dan Hanzus of NFL.com puts it:

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If Tatupu can shake off the rust and perform at a level similar to his best years in Seattle, don't be surprised if he beats out Akeem Dent.

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However, don't be surprised if Tatupu is brought on the field more for special teams and nickel packages. He isn't the top-notch linebacker that he once was, and it'd be very shocking to see him as the exact same player he used to be. He should be an impact player for Atlanta though as a reserve and his leadership is always good to have on a team.

CB Brent Grimes

Projected Stats

50 Tackles, 0.0 Sacks

3 Interceptions, 18 Pass Deflections

0 Forced Fumbles, 10 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Brent Grimes is one of the top five corners in the NFL and should be the left corner until he dies or the Falcons find someone better. Neither of those will happen any time soon. Pro Football Focus's Sam Monson includes him in their top group of guys to compete with Revis for the "Best Corner in the NFL" title:

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Brent Grimes was exceptional for the Falcons when he played, limiting receivers to catching just 44.6% of balls thrown into his coverage, and though he only intercepted one pass, he broke up another dozen. Grimes had an excellent season, but he doesn’t track receivers the way Revis or Joseph does, making his job that bit easier. 

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So expect Grimes to have another great year. He is still one of the best corners in the NFL and he is just hitting his prime at just 28 years old. His game relies on a combination of his top notch athleticism and his even better intelligence and instincts.

CB Asante Samuel

Projected Stats

40 Tackles, 0.0 Sacks

5 Interceptions, 15 Pass Deflections

0 Forced Fumbles, 10 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Asante Samuel is an amazing player and someone who will bring a new attitude to the Falcons secondary. He brings swagger that Knox Bardeen noted could send the Falcons defense over the top in 2012. He also quoted Samuel saying:

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“That’s what you’ve got to do, put the bull’s eye on your shoulder and step up to the plate,” Samuel said. “That’s how you get better. If you are talking [smack] and you’re telling them ‘they can’t do this or they can’t do that,’ of course, they are going to try. But if you don’t back it up, they are going to [make fun of] you.”

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With that, expect Samuel to get closer to his more normal stats this year. He should be around the tackle numbers and interception numbers listed. He will have balls thrown his way because Grimes is a top-notch corner and he will have to make quarterbacks pay. 

CB Dunta Robinson

Projected Stats

35 Tackles, 1.0 Sacks

3 Interceptions, 9 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 10 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

Dunta Robinson is back in his preferred nickel spot in 2012. He has been asking the coaching staff for years to slide him there in nickel situations, but they felt it was better to put him on the outside. However, he explains the difference in the role to AtlantaFalcons.com's Daniel Cox,

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“Outside you’re kind of a finesse player,” he said. “When you move inside, that’s where the action is, where all the big guys (are). It’s kind of like you’re a small linebacker on the inside. It’s very different.”

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He will be much better for the Falcons as a nickel back. His strength both against the run and against the smaller, quicker wide receivers in the NFL will help him have a return to the form he showed early in his career.

FS Thomas Decoud

Projected Stats

75 Tackles, 1.0 Sacks

3 Interceptions, 5 Pass Deflections

1 Forced Fumbles, 20 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

The biggest benefactor of the new defense will be Thomas Decoud. Under Brian Van Gorder's scheme, Decoud would be asked to cover confusing zones that even the most well-versed players would have had trouble with. However, under Nolan he will play a more straightforward role in the scheme and Daniel Cox of AtlantaFalcons.com quoted him about it:

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“It’s a little bit more simpler defense,” he said. “We’re able to make calls and get off the leash and make plays as a secondary.”

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For Decoud, that means making the call and getting into position. When it's simpler for him to get everyone set up and ready for the play, he can become a top-notch safety. He's a ballhawk who can make plays all around the defense and should be much better in 2012.

SS William Moore

Projected Stats

75 Tackles, 1.0 Sacks

3 Interceptions, 8 Pass Deflections

2 Forced Fumbles, 20 Tackles for Negative or No Gain

William Moore has the potential to be the best safety in the NFL, once Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu retire. His all-around ability as a run stuffer and in coverage is amazing. Khaled Elsayed even has Moore as the Falcons secret superstar for 2012 saying:

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The guy many speculated would need to be a linebacker because of his problems in coverage actually turned it on and continued to show a knack for making plays on the ball. His seven pass disruptions (two interceptions and five pass break ups) were bettered by only 14 other safeties, despite him missing large portions of the season.

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He should also be a better pass rusher under the new scheme as well. Moore's role in the scheme will look more like Reed or Polamalu's as well. He will be sent after the quarterback or dropped deep into coverage. But much like the rest of the defense, this could be a career year for Moore.

Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist and Trends and Traffic Writer for Bleacher Report. As a Featured Columnist, he covers the Atlanta Falcons, NFL and NFL Draft. He is also the Falcons analyst at Drafttek and also runs the NFL Draft Website ScarDraft.com and the host of Kvetching Draftniks Radio.

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