Orlando Magic: The Rise and Fall of Dwight Howard

The recently concluded NBA season had its fair share of twists and turns. From Commissioner David Stern orchestrating the placement (and naming the price) for All-Star point guard Chris Paul, to Jeremy Lin taking the league by storm (for a few weeks, at least), the NBA came out swinging with narratives after almost giving up hope on a 2012 season.

Oklahoma City and Miami gave us the first of what we can only hope are many more championship match-ups. And after watching the Charlotte Bobcats stumble their way into history, Michael Jordan seems destined to hold the mantle of both the best (player) and worst (executive) the Association has ever seen.

Through it all, one episode from this season continues to annoy me—the epic rise and fall of Dwight Howard. It feels like it was just yesterday that Dwight Howard was the toast of the NBA.

Howard captured our imaginations when he emerged from an on-court telephone booth as Superman during a All-Star weekend dunk contest, and threw down a dunk so assaulting; it was more the act of a villain than hero.

Howard again bent the rules of physics by dunking on 12-foot rims, dunking from behind backboards and dunking while placing a sticker at the top of the backboard.

Howard’s non-exhibition game has also been pretty good. He has made All-NBA First Team now five years running, and has taken home Defensive Player of the Year honors each of the three seasons from 2008-2011.

Howard long ago gave up his reign as Dunk Champion during All-Star festivities, and it seems that his on-court game is starting to suffer as well. I say all of this knowing full well that last year Howard averaged career highs (per game) in minutes, rebounds, assists and steals.

However, some recent trends do disturb me. For instance, Howard’s field goal percentage (.573) looks good on paper, but it’s his lowest since the 2008-09 season. Also, Howard failed to score more than 12 points in a game nine times last season.

Howard’s value as a soon-to-be max contract player is earned through two main features—rebounds and easy scores in the paint. Every offensive rebound Howard grabs gives his team an extra possession, and those three-four OREBs he grabs each game lead to a precious handful of extra points.

That’s a big deal in a league where the average margin of victory for playoff teams in the Eastern Conference last year was just under four points per game, and for the Magic this past season was less than one.

Maybe it’s because I find it alarming that Howard had less blocks per game this past season than JaVale McGee, or less points per game than LaMarcus Aldridge. McGee and Aldridge are both fine players, but they don’t exactly strike fear in opposing teams the way Superman otherwise might or should.

In the end, I suspect the most disturbing trend of Howard’s 2012 campaign is his apparent lack of mental focus. It seems whenever he is given the chance, Howard announces he is ready, willing and able to play for any other team in the NBA besides the Magic.

I have no doubt that going to bed each night not knowing where you might be employed come morning must be an agonizing tough emotional grind, but it shouldn’t affect your play on the court.

I know it is hard to quantitatively analyze a player’s intensity or effort, but some small cracks are starting to show for Howard from this past season. His Offensive Rating (as estimate of points produced per 100 possessions) was a career low, and his Win Shares Per 48 Minutes last year was a five-year low.

More tellingly, Howard failed to break even at the foul line, shooting a career low 49.1 percent. The fact that Howard is virtually useless during the ends of close games means that those glowing attributes I spoke of earlier must sit on the bench when they are needed the most.

Throughout his career, Dwight Howard has been the perfect player for an NBA fan to love. His childlike enthusiasm for the game is so addictive you can never get enough.

Yet, I fear the season-long temper tantrum he threw for us last year has caused his place in the game to suffer, and will precede a harsh downward spiral of contempt among basketball fans. I’ll be watching to see how Howard rebounds when he next puts on a new jersey.