Chicago White Sox Favorites to Repeat In AL Central

Despite the fact that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays ended the Chicago White Sox season in the Division Series, by all accounts, the 2008 season was a successful one. The White Sox go into 2008 as the favorites to repeat as AL Central Division Champs.

However, that can change at a moments notice as a number of their division rivals will show some improvement. White Sox’s management has shown in the past that they will change directions in a hurry if things start to go south.

Starting Pitching

This group proved to be more stable than anyone gave them credit for going into last season. Because a number of these pitchers have youth on their side, there is no reason to think they will not continue to improve.

Lefty Mark Buehrle provides veteran stability to the staff. He has thrown over 200 innings and made over 30 starts in each of his eight full seasons in the majors.

Outside of a small hiccup in 2006, Buerhle will not only to eat innings, but he sports a career 3.80 ERA as well. You can count on him being near or over his yearly average of 15 wins.

Gavin Floyd may have finally reached his tremendous potential last season. He went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA after struggling to stay in the bigs his previous four years.

There is some concern that his high walk total may come back to bite him. The White Sox would be wise to keep a watchful eye as he topped 200 innings for the first time in 2008.

Lefty John Danks also made huge strides last season, lowering his ERA from 5.50 to 3.32, and increasing his win total from six to 12. He’s only 23 years old, so the ceiling on Danks is high.

The Sox took a minor risk on Bartolo Colon in the offseason, signing him to a club friendly, one-year incentive laden deal. The team is hoping that they can catch lightning in a bottle with this one-time ace, but weight and injury issues have been his calling card ever since winning the AL Cy Young in 2005.

Chicago is hoping either Colon or old-timer Jose Contreras can fill the fourth or fifth slots in the rotation. Contreras suffered a bad Achilles rupture last year, but is reportedly in better shape and looking younger than whatever his birth certificate says.

Regardless, Contreras will not start the season with the team. Contreras says that he will be ready by June, but mid- to late-July is more likely.

It might be more prudent to have a back up plan than to rely on either of these two pitchers. Youngsters Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Lance Broadway, and Jeff Marquez will all get a look in spring training to round out the rotation.

Richards has at least some major league experience, so he most likely will get the nod to fill the fifth starter's role after camp breaks. However, Poreda has the most upside with his 6’6”, 240-pound frame and upper-90s fastball.

Poreda will need to work on his secondary pitches before they give him the ball at the major league level. There is no point in ruining his confidence before he gets his career untracked.

Bullpen

The pen has depth and experience. Bobby Jenks is one of the more reliable closers in the American League who has saved 41, 40 and 30 games in his last three years respectively.

Tipping the scales at 300 pounds, weight is always an issue with Jenks. But the bottom line is that he gets the job done.

Octavio Dotel proved to be healthy again in ‘08 after suffering through three seasons with the injury bug. He can be a short-term closer replacement if Jenks breaks down, but he seems more suited to be in the set-up role.

Dotel has absolutely filthy stuff when he is not on the DL. His 12.36 strikeouts per nine innings in 2008 was remarkable.

Scott Linebrink is a solid set-up man as well. He may not be the lights-out pitcher he was from 2003 through 2006 with the Padres, but he is still more than capable if his shoulder holds up.

Matt Thornton has quietly established himself as that power left-hand arm every bullpen needs. At 6’6”, with a mid-90s heater and nasty slider (along with a capable changeup), he is a nightmare for left-handed hitters around the league.

Mike MacDougal and D.J. Carrasco will likely fill out the pen.

McDougal—another former closer—has great stuff but his command from game to game waivers. Carrasco will serve as a long-man, spot-starter for the club.

Infield

Paul Konerko returns at first base for Chicago. Long one of the top hitters at his position, Konerko’s numbers have begun to fade downward.

There is a chance that the team may be heading in the direction of a lefty-righty platoon with Konerko and Ben Broussard. But Broussard looks like he is on the downward slide of his career as well.

The hope in Chicago is that Konerko stays healthy and puts up his old power numbers. But the days of him being an elite hitter who can hit for average are probably over.

The biggest question mark for Chicago going into the season may be who starts at second base. Chris Getz, Brent Lillibridge, and Jason Nix will all get a shot to win the job.

None of these candidates are especially appealing. Lillibridge and Nix were once rising stars in different organizations who lost some luster after they got looks at the major league level. Getz plays hard, but has a limited upside.

Josh Fields will most likely get the starting nod at third base. After hitting 23 home runs in 2007, he again took a back seat to Joe Crede in ’08.

Crede, a free agent, still has not signed on with another team, so the door is open slightly. But it looks as though the team has finally turned the page on him after back injuries derailed his career.

Fields struggled to make contact in the minors last year, so this is a risk. Dayan Viciedo was signed to a big contract out of Cuba, but at 19, he is not yet ready for prime time.

Wilson Betemit is an option if Fields struggles as well. He has some pop in his bat and will serve as a utility man if he does not win the third base job.

Alexei Ramirez will move to his natural shortstop position after playing second base in 2008. The Cuban Missile has all the tools and should improve upon his 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases with another year of seasoning.

Ramirez looks like a star in the making. Tall (6’3”) and slender, his power numbers will rise as his body fills out and he gets used to major league pitching.

Outfield

Jermain Dye and Carlos Queintin will more than capably man the corner outfield positions. Dye had been rumored to be traded elsewhere, but that is unlikely to happen as long as the ChiSox stay in the thick of the race.

Dye is slowing down in the outfield, but is a sure thing to put up his usual numbers at the plate (.300, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R). He is one of the most consistent hitters in the game.

Quentin went from enigma to star in one season. He started the season on a MVP-like pace, but slowed down considerably after dealing with a wrist injury late in the season.

Quentin has to put together another solid season before he is considered an elite player (36 HR, 100 RBI, .288 BA in 2008). If he can keep himself off the disabled list, he just might be that player.

Ozzie Guillen has let it be known that DeWayne Wise has the edge in the center field battle. Wise was the starter for the club down the stretch, but really is a career journeyman.

Wise has played parts of 12 seasons in the minor leagues and didn’t do anything special at that level to warrant giving him the job. Guillen may be a little flaky, but he cannot be serious about this experiment, can he?

Other options besides Wise are Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson, neither of whom instill much confidence. Owens is the youngest and has speed, but struggled mightily in his short stints in the majors.

Anderson has some power and is only one year older than Owens. But he too, has not shown he can hit big league pitching.

This is going to be a problem spot that perhaps GM Ken Williams will address before the season starts.

Catcher

A.J. Pierzynski will again take his place behind the dish. Pierzynski does have skills—besides irritating every player on every other team in the league.

A.J. handles himself capably behind the plate and is an above-average hitting catcher. He will hit 12-18 homers and knock in 65 to 75 runs on a yearly basis.

He doesn’t have the greatest arm, but he is a commanding presence on the pitching staff.

Corky Miller was acquired to back up Pierzynski. He has a job because he’s a veteran who plays defense, but cannot hit a lick.

If Pierzynski gets injured for any length of time, minor leaguer Tyler Flowers will get the call and not Miller. Flowers has a great bat, but needs more seasoning behind the plate before he is ready.

Designated Hitter

Jim Thome has solidified his spot as one of the top power hitters of all time. Thome now has 541 home runs for his career and will pass 1,500 RBI in the first month of the season.

After 18 years, it is certain that his bad back will let him down soon. His batting average started to decline last year, so his days are numbered.

That being said, you can pencil him in for over 30 HR and 90-100 RBI if he stays healthy.

Prediction

There is a lot of talk that the Indians or Twins will catch the White Sox this year. But until it is proven, the Sox are the team to beat.

The pitching staff from top to bottom maybe the deepest in the AL Central. They have a good mix of veterans and young arms.

There is no sure thing as White Sox fans know as well as anyone. The shoe could drop at any moment on the Sox and its volatile management team.

This team could go on a run or you can brace yourself for an Ozzie Guillen implosion, Thome/Dye/Quentin/Konerko injury, or a fire sale at the all-star break by GM Kenny Williams. Perhaps all of the above.

The issue for the White Sox is what happens if or when they make the playoffs. Although they have a deep rotation, they really do not possess the ace and secondary ace that most playoff teams have.

As a result, even if they win the division, the White Sox are not a contender to win a championship.