NBA Free Agency 2012: The Top 10 Free Agents Still Left to Be Overpaid

We're officially one week into NBA free agency, and remarkably, we haven't seen too many egregious contracts handed out this summer.

Sure, you've got the laughable three-year, $20 million offer sheet the Toronto Raptors handed to New York Knicks free agent Landry Fields. And fellow Sixers fans are forever ruing the day that a two-year, $13 million agreement with Spencer Hawes was reached.

Compared to years past, though, we've seen very few contracts that cause your jaw to drop...yet.

That's all about to change.

With most of the big name free agents accounted for, teams with mounds of cap space still available will sink into desperation mode and start overpaying mediocre players.

Here you'll find the top 10 available restricted and unrestricted free agents most likely to land a contract larger than they deserve this summer.

1. Javale McGee, RFA

When the dust settles in the fight between Portland and Indiana for Roy Hibbert, one team will have a gaping hole at center and a max contract ready to offer.

Depending on how far the Denver Nuggets are willing to go in terms of matching an offer for McGee, he could be the highest-paid player left on the market this summer.

If Hibbert can land a max contract offer, it's not inconceivable that McGee would not be far behind. McGee's averages from this past season (11.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 blocks) barely trail Hibbert's (12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2 blocks), and at 24 years old, McGee comes even one year younger than Hibbert, too.

At this point in his career, McGee is much more well known for his knuckleheadedness (see: a top 10 "stupid plays" YouTube montage) than his potential.

But in the first round of the playoffs this past season, the Lakers earned a first-hand glimpse of what McGee could do after he put on a 16 point, 15 rebound performance in Game 3 and a 21 point, 14 rebound explosion in the series-extending Game 5.

Don't be surprised when McGee lands the fattest contract of anyone left this summer. You've been forewarned.

2. Brook Lopez, RFA

Speaking of max contracts...come on down, Brook Lopez!

After blatantly shopping Lopez in their desperate pursuit to pry Dwight Howard out of Orlando, the Brooklyn Nets have finally begun negotiations on an extension with their oft-knocked center.

And, wouldn't you know it? Lopez expects a five-year, $75 million max offer from the Nets, according to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.

Lopez also holds a massive position of power over the Nets, for now. Unless I'm mistaken, Lopez could sign an offer sheet with another team to essentially murder the prospective trade for Howard, since it would bar the Nets from including him in any summer trade.

No matter where he ends up this summer—Brooklyn, Orlando, Cleveland, or a currently unknown destination—expect Lopez to command at least a four-year, $50 million deal (if not the max).

3. O.J. Mayo, UFA

There's been remarkably little noise surrounding Mayo, who at this point in free agency appears to be the best shooting guard left on the market.

Expect that to change within the next few days.

The Clippers, Knicks, Mavericks, Pacers, Rockets and Suns all still have a chance at landing Mayo, according to a July 5 tweet from ESPN's Ric Bucher. With Mayo seeking a deal higher than the mid-level exception, according to ESPN's Rumor Central, that all but eliminates the shooter-needy Celtics, who could be without Avery Bradley for part of next season.  

Mayo's always been a tease of talent, more than anything else. He was highly touted in high school and was supposed to be the next big thing in the NBA after being drafted out of USC, but he's shot less than 41 percent each of the past two seasons.

On a team like the Clippers, Pacers, or Knicks, who each have a multitude of other offensive options, Mayo could be a deadly addition.

Expect a bidding war to start this week.

4. Kris Humphries, UFA

Kris Humphries, by virtue of the Dwight Howard trade mess, has become a casualty of war in free agency.

The Nets have been desperately seeking to find a third team  for a sign-and-trade for Humphries, giving them the assets they need to trade for Howard. According to the latest from ESPN, the Cleveland Cavaliers appear to be the frontrunners for that role.

The Cavs sound willing to sign Humphries to a low-risk, one-year deal for $8-9 million, so long as they get a draft pick along in return. Therein lies the problem for the Nets, who need to be adding draft picks through trades, not losing them.

God willing, Billy King won't pick up the phone and call his neighbor, Rod Thorn of the Philadelphia 76ers. Humphries and Hawes in one summer could be too much to handle for any Sixers fan, especially if Hump gets inked to a long-term deal. (Luckily, the Sixers traded a first-round pick to Miami this year for Arnett Moultrie.)

Once the dust settles around the Howard situation, Humphries' future will become much more clear. Given his prolific rebounding numbers the past two seasons, he's due for a large payday this summer.

At this point, it's just a question of which team will be dishing out that deal.

5. Ramon Sessions, UFA

Ramon Sessions surprised a number of NBA fans by opting out of the last year of his contract with the Lakers in favor of free agency, figuring he could land a longer-term deal.

Once the Lakers announced their trade for Steve Nash on July 4, Sessions' plan to return to the Lakers officially went up in smoke.

The Mavericks appear to be hot after Sessions, having lost out on Deron Williams to the Nets and Jason Kidd to the Knicks. According to ESPN, Sessions wants a salary above the $4.55 million he would have made this year had he not opted out, although he's becoming flexible about the length of the deal.

Sessions' painful playoff performance won't do much to inspire confidence in anyone's mind (9.7 points, 3.6 assists on 37.7 percent shooting, including 16 percent from three-point range), but he's a better player than he showed in those 12 games.

Unless the Rockets emerge as a darkhorse contender for Sessions, assuming the Knicks match Houston's offer for Jeremy Lin, it sounds like Dallas will win the right to overpay Sessions this summer.

6. Louis Williams, UFA

Shortly after news broke on Friday that the Sixers planned on signing free agent Nick Young to a one-year, $6 million deal and were using the amnesty clause on Elton Brand, the $18 million man, Lou Williams, announced his divorce from Philadelphia via Twitter.

"Philly, I appreciate you all. Unfortunately I will not be coming back, as an organization they decided to move in a different direction."

While some natural rejoicing occurred (Philly couldn't afford spending $15 million on two bench players), Williams should be one of the most sought-after guards remaining on the market. He led the Sixers in scoring this past season, often being the only Philly player that could competently create his own shot.

Sixers fans will miss the patented Lou-for-one's, as Williams will make some other team's bench that much stronger this summer. He finished second behind James Harden in this year's Sixth Man of the Year voting, and provides an instant 15 points per game off the bench for any team.

The problem with Williams, as Andre Iguodala told Sports Illustrated, is that "he can't guard anybody." Some team will be blinded by his scoring abilities and look past the defensive deficiencies, explaining why Williams remains one of the most likely candidates left to be overpaid this summer.

7. Courtney Lee, UFA

Courtney Lee started off this summer as a restricted free agent after the Houston Rockets extended a qualifying offer to him, but the team rescinded the offer to make cap room for Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, two restricted free agents they signed to offer sheets.

Now, Lee becomes an unrestricted free agent, with the freedom to choose any team he wants without fear of the Rockets matching the offer.

After starting 42 games on the 2009 Magic team that surprised LeBron James' Cavaliers and made it to the NBA Finals, Lee's bounced around the league the past few years. He's never appeared to be an elite shooting guard prospect, but shooting 40 percent from deep for three of his first four NBA seasons doesn't hurt his resume.

After losing Ray Allen to Miami, the Celtics reportedly have strong interest in signing Lee, according to an ESPN report from Saturday. They'd need to participate in a sign-and-trade with Houston in order to complete the deal, but the desperation they suddenly face at the two may compel Boston to do whatever it takes.

Lee could end up landing a relatively sizeable deal from the Celtics, depending on Houston's interest in a sign-and-trade.

8. J.R. Smith, UFA

J.R. Smith declined a $2.4 million option with the Knicks back in June to become an unrestricted free agent, but he's given no indications (to date) that he'll be leaving Madison Square Garden just yet.

In all likelihood, Smith opted out to secure a longer deal, in the same vein Ramon Sessions did with the Lakers. At this point, Smith has to hope the decision doesn't blow up in his face like it did with Sessions.

After joining the Knicks in February, Smith posted averages of 12.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 27 minutes per game, making him the Knicks' most valuable bench contributor. He's always good for a few boneheaded shots per game, but with Carmelo Anthony right by his side, it's nothing Knicks fans aren't used to anyway.

For what it's worth, Smith's younger brother, Chris, told ESPN New York that he expects J.R. back in a Knicks uniform next season.

Once the Knicks finish dealing with the Jeremy Lin situation, expect Smith to be handsomely rewarded for his 35 games of service last season.   

9. Aaron Brooks, UFA

Like Courtney Lee, Brooks began free agency as a restricted free agent after the Suns extended a qualifying offer to him. Like Lee, his team withdrew the offer on Saturday, making Brooks an unrestricted free agent.

Let's ignore the Suns for a second (who traded Goran Dragic and a first-round pick to Houston for Brooks, only to sign Dragic to an offer sheet this summer and lose Brooks for nothing) and focus on Brooks.

He's never been the most accurate of shooters, with a career-high shooting percentage of 43.2 in the 2009-10 season. He's not a traditional point guard, with a career-high of 5.3 assists per game coming in that same season.

But in that 2009-10 season with the Rockets, Brooks lit up the scoreboard with nearly 20 points per game throughout the season. A player with a season like that on his resume always tends to get overpaid, and Brooks should be no exception this summer.

Now that he's free to go where he chooses, expect point guard-needy teams to be placing some calls to Brooks' agent this week.

(Could David Kahn's fascination with point guards strike again in Minnesota?)

10. Carl Landry, UFA

With the addition of Anthony Davis in the draft and Ryan Anderson in a sign-and-trade with the Magic, the writing's on the wall for Carl Landry and teammate Chris Kaman: Their time in New Orleans has come to an end.

For a backup power forward, teams could do much worse than Landry, who's only two seasons removed from averaging nearly 17 points and six rebounds a game.

He's never been a superstar on the glass, having never averaged more than 5.9 caroms per game in a single season, but he's a consistent offensive option who's knocked down 53.5 percent of his shots from the field over his career.

The Hornets may not be desperate for big men, but other teams (the Magic? the Sixers?) assuredly will be.

Now that most of the big-name free agents have been accounted for, Landry and the other players on this list will swoop in for the scraps, and almost all will get more than their on-court production would suggest.