Playing Pepper 2009: Cincinnati Reds

As the players start getting themselves ready for another season, I thought it'd be a good idea to do the same. I contacted a blogger for each major league team and posed to them five questions. This is the result. You can find the tentative schedule of teams here and today's main post is right here.

As I said in the Indians entry earlier today, I tend to follow the Ohio teams a little more closely than some others due to the family tie I have to them. With the Reds being in the same division as the Cards, I keep track of them even more than the Indians. My father-in-law follows the Reds and we have weekly conversations about each other's teams during the regular season.

To get the pulse of Reds fans, I turned to Chad of Redleg Nation. I asked him about the departure of Adam Dunn and the chances of a rebound out of Aaron Harang.

C70: My father-in-law lives in Ohio and is a big Reds fan.  He's expressed, if not happiness, at least an acceptance of Adam Dunn moving on.  Is that the general feeling among Reds fans?

RN: There are two distinct camps here. There are those (and the editors of Redleg Nation fall into this camp) who are disgusted at how Adam Dunn was treated in Cincinnati and who think we are really going to miss the offensive production of one of the best hitters in Reds history.

The other camp has been so influenced by the likes of Reds announcer Marty Brennaman that they are ecstatic that Dunn and his strikeouts are gone. I love Marty (he's the best), but people like him always wanted to focus on what Dunn didn't do well (and there were those things—defense and strikeouts, primarily), rather than focusing on the things that Dunn did extraordinarily well.

I haven't accepted it yet, and the first time we see Jerry Hairston, Jr. starting in left field next to Fast Willy Taveras, I'm going to miss Dunn even more.

C70: Are Jay Bruce and Joey Votto the real deal?  What can we expect out of them in '09?

RN: They are absolutely the real deal. Bruce has the higher ceiling, but Votto is going to be a very good player, as well. In fact, by 2010, I wouldn't be surprised to see these guys as the corner outfielders for the Reds. Votto's destination, in my opinion, will be left field in the near future.

As for 2009, I expect each to make significant strides. Bruce is going to be a breakout star in 2009; the various projections expect an OPS between 850-900, with 30+ homers. Votto looks to be in same territory, though I'd expect a lower SLG and a higher OBP.

They are going to have to hit extremely well to make up for the offense lost from last year. If the Reds are smart, they will lock up both of these young stars to long-term contracts before Opening Day 2010.

C70: What happened to Aaron Harang last year and will he bounce back this year?

RN: Much of last year's poor performance by Harang can be attributed to injury. How that injury occurred is another matter entirely. Many want to blame Dusty Baker, who brought Harang into an extra-inning game in San Diego to pitch in relief, on short rest. Shortly after that, Harang's injury problems began to surface. I'm not ready to blame Dusty for Harang's performance—I like to blame Dusty for things, but the evidence is pretty thin on the Harang case—but I do expect Harang to bounce back a bit in 2009.

I do not, however, expect Harang to repeat the performances of the prior couple of years, when he was the most underrated pitcher in baseball. If things go well, though, he would join All-Star Edinson Volquez, young stud Johnny Cueto, and Bronson Arroyo in a pretty good starting rotation. Which brings us to the next question....

C70: Will Homer Bailey make an impact this year?

RN: There are those who think Bailey should be the fifth starter this year. There are those who think he should pitch in relief in Cincinnati. There are those who think he should be traded and there are those who think he's an irredeemable bust.

I've been a big Homer Bailey defender for a while now, but even I'm getting tired of this show. I think Bailey should be given every opportunity to win the 5th starter's spot, but that he will probably start the season in a relief role for the big club (I think Micah Owings will be the fifth starter; although, with his bat, he should probably be the left fielder).

As for whether Bailey will make an impact, who knows? At 23, he's still very young, and it wasn't that long ago that he was the best pitching prospect in baseball. He has some problems with his mechanics, and if those can get straightened out, he could be a big surprise this year. Either way, because of what the Reds have invested in him, he'll get every opportunity to succeed.

C70: What is the general feeling in the fanbase toward management/ownership?

RN: Terrible. You may recall that, late last season, Reds owner Bob Castellini and GM Walt Jocketty sent out a letter to fans apologizing for running such a terrible organization. That apology did not go over very well; in fact, it made many fans sit up and realize just how bad the Reds have actually been lately.

This is an organization that has been the Royals and Pirates for the last decade, to put it bluntly. Management has made one ridiculous decision after another, and Reds fans are beaten down by it. At this point, many of us are finished giving the Reds the benefit of the doubt. They've proven to be astoundingly inept.

On the other hand, I'll say this: Castellini has shown a willingness to open the pocketbook, and he has a stated desire to win. He was a Reds season ticket holder long before he bought the team. He's sincere.

Walt Jocketty has a good track record with the Cardinals, and though he has not gotten off to the best start as Reds GM, most fans believe that he deserves an opportunity to right the ship after the bumbling and stumbling of previous management teams.

In the end, Reds fans are just demoralized at this point. Heck, I'm as big a Reds fan as you're ever going to find, and I'm probably going to skip Opening Day for the first time in six years. However, there is cause for optimism. The Reds have a good young nucleus, both in the lineup (Bruce, Votto, Edwin Encarnacion) and in the rotation (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey?). There are a number of very solid prospects who appear to be ready to hit the big leagues in 2010.

The 2009 season is likely to be a complete disaster, but the future could be very bright for this once-proud organization...if management doesn't screw it up. The track record isn't good. Reds fans are just going to have to be in wait-and-see mode, I suppose. 

Thanks to Chad for those details about the Reds. It's interesting to see that their fan base is starting to get worn down by the losing. The Reds, in my mind, should be competitive in the division this year but if they aren't and the fans have their way, there could be some upheaval by this time next year.