Home Run Derby 2012: Participants That Will Fall Flat on Big Stage

Despite the fact that the Home Run Derby is constantly home to the game's best sluggers, there are inevitably always flops.

Jose Bautista hit four home runs in 2011. Matt Kemp hit two. Matt Holliday hit five in 2010. Adrian Gonzalez hit two in 2009. Evan Longoria hit three in 2008. Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard hit three in 2007.

These are good hitters embarrassing themselves out there. There's really no rhyme or reason as to why it happens. Different types of power hitters have struggled on the big stage. The only thing that's clear is that it's inevitable.

Every year someone struggles, and 2012 will be no different. Let's take a look at the likely candidates. 

Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals

It's hard to bet against Beltran, who is having the best power-hitting season of his career with the exception of 2006. The new Cardinal is slugging a ridiculous .549 with 20 home runs and 11 doubles. 

But do you expect the 35-year-old to go all out for this competition? The 14-year veteran has been around the block. He knows how these things work. I fully expect him to give about 80 percent, and smartly use this time to rest his body.

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kemp, who won't play in the All-Star game as he continues to rehab his injury, is apparently going to give it a go in the Home Run Derby. 

Now, he has been taking batting practice for the past three weeks or so, and when it comes down to it, that's all the Home Run Derby is, but you can't help to think the slugger will have a little bit of rust.

If he doesn't, watch out. Before going to the DL, Kemp was absolutely murdering the ball to the tune of a .719 slugging percentage and 12 home runs in 36 games. 

Nonetheless, much like Damon, he won't over-exert himself, and Kemp, who hit just two in the contest last year, will put up another stinker. 

Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

Giancarlo Stanton's replacement certainly has nothing to lose, but he's just not a pure power hitter. 

The young Pirate is certainly showing some pop in his bat this year, as evidenced by his .625 slugging percentage and 18 home runs, but don't forget this is a guy who has never surpassed 23 homers in a season.

The reason he's seen the explosion this year is because he's a natural born hitter with immense skills and knows how to adjust to the game and get better, not because he's a big power bat. 

That doesn't usually result in a great Home Run Derby participant. Don't expect a ton of production out of the 5'10", 185-pound star. 

Also, no, I don't have anything against the National League. This happened completely randomly. I also think Jose Bautista and Prince Fielder won't hit a ton out of the park. 

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