2008 MLB Preview: NL Central

Seriously, there are six teams in the NL Central. There's no point in me "setting it up" at all. Reverse order as normal, let's get to it... 

Pittsburgh Pirates (2007 Results: 68-94, Sixth in NL Central)

Well, it’s just another year for the Pittsburgh Pirates—a bunch of low-level talent brought in that’s expected to keep the Pirates mired in the NL Central basement.

The team’s All-Star—Canadian born outfielder Jason Bay—is the lone bright spot on this squad, and it seems as though he’s tiring of it.

Whether last year was an inclination of Bay tiring to the constant losing in Pittsburgh or not, his stats were well below the trend he’s set in his career.

For the first time ever, Bay hit below .280 (.247 average), and he failed to top the 100 RBI and 30 homer plateaus for the first time since 2005. What’s more is that Bay’s patience even seemed to suffer, as he logged his fewest amount of walks (59) since 2004. Even Bay’s defensive play seemed to suffer, as he committed a career-high eight errors in just over 1200 innings.

Joining him in the outfield will be Xavier Nady, who posted his first 20 homer, 70 RBI season last season, and a combination of Nyjer Morgan, Chris Duffy, and Nate McLouth.

Now all of these players bring different tangibles to centerfield—Morgan brings speed (190 career Minor League steals), a strong average (.299 career Minor League average), and solid range in the outfield, while McLouth brings a little more power (13 homers in ’07), and Duffy brings a strong glove (five errors in 1455.1 career innings). However, even with these intangibles, none of them really offer a solid fallback option for the Pirates if Bay were to fall to injury.

Meanwhile on the infield, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez are back at shortstop and second base respectively to see if they can add a little maturity to a young Pirates squad.

As of his third game played in ’08, Wilson will have played in 1000 career games, and he his coming off of a season which was marred by scrutiny and trade rumors, amidst which he posted a .296 average as well as 56 RBI and a career-high 12 homers. On the other side, Sanchez will see action in his eighth Major League season and (what hopes to be) his fourth full season with the Pirates.

Since starting to play full-time, Sanchez has seen his average take a roller coaster ride. In 2005 Sanchez hit a respectable .291; however that number jumped to .344 in ’06, but then dropped another 40 points in 2007. All indications are the Sanchez’s average should jump again in ’08, and both he and Wilson should provide solid defense up the middle as they’ve combined for 54 errors and .985 fielding percentage over the past three years.

Behind the plate, Ronny Paulino will be good for 6-10 homers and 55 RBI (his total in each of the past two seasons), while defensively Paulino throws out base-stealers at just over a 26 percent clip. However, Paulino will receive competition for the starter’s job from Ryan Doumit who has shown flashes of power in his three-year career, and thrown out runners at a 31.1 percent rate over those three years.

On the corners, Jose Bautista will return at third base after providing the Pirates with 15 homers and 63 RBI in just his second season with over 400 at-bats. Bautista does bring versatility to the roster, but his “prowess” at third base does seem questionable, as he’s committed 21 errors in his past 159 games at the position.

Across the diamond, Adam LaRoche will have to be Bay’s right-hand man as he was the only other player on the roster with more than 80 RBI, and only the third on the roster with more than 20 home runs. LaRoche is also solid on the defensive side committing only 23 errors in nearly 4200 career innings. However, if LaRoche (or anyone else for that matter) goes down on this Pirates team, the depth just simply isn’t there with Chris Gomez and Josh Wilson.

Then we get to the pitchers. Tom Gorzelanny went 14-10 last season with a 3.88 ERA in 201.2 innings, but experienced some soreness early in spring training. Although it’s said that he’s overcome those pains, it’ll be interesting to see if this becomes a recurring issue throughout the season, and if it affects his chances of posting a second season over .500.

Following him in the rotation will be Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76), Paul Maholm (10-15, 5.02), Matt Morris (10-11, 4.89), and Zach Duke (3-8, 5.53).

The first thing you’ll notice is that all four pitchers finished with sub-.500 record in ‘07. The other thing you’ll notice is that only one of those pitchers came out of the season with an ERA under 4.80. Between Maholm, Snell, and Duke, these three have only three years with records over .500 and ERAs under 4.00 in 10 career seasons combined (Maholm and Duke also produced these numbers in six and 14 games respectively). Matt Morris meanwhile has to try and recapture some of the magic he captured with the Cards, and work towards dropping his ERA below 4.00 for the first time since 2003. The good thing about Morris is that he’s started over 30 games in six of the past seven years, and the experience he can bring to this staff.

In the bullpen, Matt Capps returns as the team’s full-time closer (he took over after two months last season) and is brimming with confidence in his team, and his stuff. He’s got good reason to as well, as he went 18/21 in save opportunities with a 2.28 ERA, along with 64 strikeouts compared to 16 walks in 79 innings.

Aside from Capps, all that’s left of the Pirates bullpen is Damaso Marte (who completely destroyed left-handed hitters last season—0.94 average) and John Grabow who’s averaged 59 innings and 66 appearances over the past four seasons.

With that, the last four spots are reserved for players that haven’t seen a lot of success (or time) at the major league level and players who have had middle-of-the-road MLB careers. Ty Taubenheim, Romulo Sanchez, Juan Perez, Evan Meek, Bryan Billington (22.50 ERA in 2 MLB games last year) and John Van Benschoten (10.15 ERA in 11 MLB games last season) are all guys who have pitched in fewer than 25 major league games, while the “under-performing veteran” role could be filled by either B-H Kim (I’ve said way too many nice things about this guy lately) or Casey Fossum who has a career NL ERA of 6.65 (taken from 27 games with Arizona in 2004).

Granted, any of these guys could see time in a starter’s role if injury strikes the rotation, but if they want to make the team, it’s most likely going to have to start with earning their stripes in the ‘pen.

As for the Pirates, if they want to finally have a winning record for the first time in fifteen years, then their pitching will have to stay healthy and stay consistent. I’ll believe that when I see it though.

2008 Prediction: 69-95, 6th in NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals (2007 Results: 78-84, 3rd in NL Central)

Well, after years of contending, Cards fans should cherish that World Series title they got back in 2006, because it’s back to growing pains.

Gone are the likes of Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, and Scott Rolen. In their places are pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel, Cesar Izturis, and a gimpy Troy Glaus.

It’ll be an interesting year under the arch to say the least.

To change things up, let’s start on the infield, where Albert Pujols is treading on thin ice with regards to his elbow. According to an article on the Cards’ website Pujols has the following:

1.    A high grade tear of the ulnar collateral ligament
2.    Bone spurs
3.    Inflammation
4.    Arthritis

And although Pujols has been putting off surgery for his condition (present since 2003), if his elbow gets much worse he may have to resort to Tommy John AND arthroscopic surgery.

Don’t get me wrong—I admire athletes who play through pain—but I have no clue how Pujols is going to play through this.

I mean, since 2003 Pujols has only hit below .330 and 40 homers once, but both of those results occurred last year—in the second-most games of his career, so has his health finally caught up to him?

And now word is that he “won’t need the surgery this season unless the condition worsens.” You mean to tell me it can get worse than having an elbow that may as well be held together by double-sided tape and a clothespin?

I just don’t know.

Pujols has two homers this spring (at the time of writing this), but I can’t help thinking that if I’m the Cardinals, I WANT Pujols healthy and I’m willing to live with Josh Phelps and Chris Duncan at first for a year if that’s what it takes to get him healthy. Hell, as a baseball fan I want him healthy. If you’re a Cubs fan that opinion may differ—but I’m not, so I need not worry.

Across the diamond at third are more injury problems in Troy Glaus who flopped out of Toronto on steroid-scandals and a bum foot. With foot problems last season, Glaus ended up posting the worst numbers of his career, in which he’s played 100 games or more, while offering a defensive game that’s a huge downgrade over the guy you gave up for him in Scott Rolen.

In other words: He moves as well laterally as William Hung does, well, anything.

I do believe that Glaus can find his power stroke in St. Louis, but defensively he’s not as mobile as you’d like, and longevity will to be an issue for him this season (and you know you’re on the downside of your career when you get compared to William Hung).

Up the middle, the Cards upgraded defensively with Cesar Izturis (although they downgraded offensively), while they are left to hope that Adam Kennedy and his wonky knee (and season for that matter) can rebound and give them the ballplayer they thought they were getting (.219 average in 87 games with only 18 RBI—and everyone said I was crazy when I didn’t want him to come to Toronto). If not, then they’ve got Aaron Miles, and possibly Brendan Ryan waiting in the wings to try and help out at second base.

Behind the plate you’ve got Yadier Molina who threw out 54 percent of potential base stealers last year, as well as being able to post a career-high .275 average in only 111 games last season.

If Pujols is shut down at any point this season, Yadier Molina will become the closest thing this team has to a star player.

Yikes.

Then we get to the outfield, which is being patrolled by Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, and Skip Schumaker this season. Granted, Ankiel produced some exceptional offensive numbers last season, but the likelihood of him producing at the same rate this season (11 homers, 39 RBI, .285 average in ’07) is low. Then you look at the fact that he strikes out at a pace of nearly one per game (41 strikeouts in 47 games), and his defense could range from mediocre to average, and the Walt Disney Dream may turn into the Elm Street Nightmare.

Out in right, could be fourth year man Skip Schumaker who’s hoping to finally see some extended time, although it could be interesting to see what he does if he gets it. In 88 games, Schumaker was only good for two homers and 19 RBI, but did have a .333 average.

The big knock on Skip though is whether or not he can put the tools together to consistently contribute at the Major League level, however, and if he finds that he can’t contribute consistently at the Major League level, he could find himself on the bench in favor of Ryan Ludwick, Brian Barton, or hot prospect Colby Rasmus (it’s worth noting that Rasmus could even push Ankiel to right field, and then take over in center).

Then we get to Chris Duncan, who despite being a complete video-game stud actually got worse after a career-high in games played: His home runs dropped by one, he nearly doubled his strikeouts, and his average dropped 37 points, all from playing 37 more games than he did in 2006.

Now Duncan was playing with a sports hernia, however it’ll be up to him to prove that last year’s showing was merely a result of battling through the pain. If Duncan can at least provide stable defense in left field, a moderately consistent bat, and a confident backup glove to Albert Pujols at first however, it would help the Cards immensely—and they do need it.

Then we get to the rotation, and what a rotation it is. I mean, you’ve got two pitchers with ERAs over 6.00 in their last seasons of activity (Anthony Reyes: 2-14, 6.04 ERA in 2007; Matt Clement: 5-5, 6.61 ERA with Boston in 2006), Joel Pineiro, who spent yet another year deciding whether or not he wanted to be a starter or a reliever (31 relief appearances with Boston, 11 starts with St. Louis) and being average at one, and a little less than impressive at the other, and Braden Looper, who started for the first time in his career last season, and yielded some positive results (12-12, 4.94 ERA, 175.0 innings).

Look’s promising, eh? Especially when one of your pitcher’s has the middle name “LaVerne.” I’ll leave you to figure out which one.

And we haven’t even gotten to the fact that Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter will be out until May 1st and the All-Star break respectively!

But before we get too down on the Cards, they do have Adam Wainwright who’ll be the acting staff ace after posting a solid 14 wins last season, and a respectable 3.61 ERA.

However, Wainwright will have to bear the load of this rotation until the return of Mulder and Carpenter because, well, he seems the least likely to implode.

But wait, there’s more!

If you call in the next 15 minutes, you’ll receive the entire 2007 St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen! That’s right, you’ll get such classics as: Jason Isringhausen and the fact he’s gotten 30 saves in seven of the past eight seasons, Ryan Franklin and his first season since 2003 with an ERA under 4.00, Russ Springer—winner of eight games in ’07, Randy Flores who went 3-0 with a 4.25 ERA, Todd Wellemeyer—the man who loves the letter "E," Brad Thompson who went 129.1 innings split between starting and relief, and Tyler Johnson.

Yes you heard me right, that’s Tyler Johnson!!

I didn’t really make it sound that way, but the bullpen is a strength for this Cardinals team, and depending on what happens with Fat Albert, it could be their biggest strength.

At this rate though, it’d just be easier to change their nickname from the “Red Birds” to the “Red Crosses.”

But that’s just silly now isn’t it?

2008 Prediction: 71-91, 5th in NL Central, Albert Pujols is done by June 18th, and Adam Wainwright does indeed implode, resorting to wearing a dress by the All-Star break and professing his love for Sex and the City.

Houston Astros (2007 Results: 73-89 Fourth in NL Central)

Well, even with “Rocket Roger’s” personal service contract to help them along, I can’t see the Astros improving much over last year’s 73 wins, and with a surprising season from the Reds (we’ll get to them in a second) that’ll only be good enough for fifth in the Central.

For starters, the middle-infield is completely new featuring Miguel Tejada and Kazuo Matsui.

The problem with Matsui is that he might fall into the “Drew Carey Hall of Fame” for players that are under tremendous pressure to replace legends.

Aaron Rodgers is part of this club, Drew Carey is the founder, and with Kaz Matsui being 32 and only ever having one Major League season with an average (.288 in 2007) better than Biggio’s career average (.281). On top of that, Matsui is 32 and is looking like one of those players who can post career years in Colorado, but are simply a middle of the road player anywhere else.

Can he replace Craig Biggio? Sure, but the bigger question is will he be able to replicate 2007’s results, or will Matsui just continually downgrade into a $5.5 million a year bench player?

Then we get to Miguel “Vitamin B12” Tejada.

I mean, for a guy who has had six 162-game seasons and four seasons with an average over .300 (including 2004-2006) he sure takes a lot of heat doesn’t he?

Granted, his RBI totals the past four years have been up and down (2004-150, 2005-98, 2006-100, 2007-81), his home run numbers have been declining, and he’s got that whole “drug allegation” thing hanging above his head, but a move to the NL could be just what Tejada needs couldn’t it?

Yes, back in the "Steroid Era" he was good for 130+ RBI, but "unjuiced” (see Roger, I can make up words too) he seems to have some solid RBI and contact potential, with a little bit of a wonky glove at short.

Granted, it’s not like he’s a combination of Ozzie Smith and A-Rod, but I think that Tejada could have a bounce back year of sorts (depending on how he deals with the Mitchell Report controversy), and prove to that there might be something left in the tank after all.

Moving behind the plate, J.R. Towles who had a .375 average, 12 RBI, and threw out three of a possible six base stealers in a brief audition last season will come in competing with thirty-eight year old Brad Ausmus for the starters job (although at his age, Ausmus is most likely there to tutor Towles).  Although Ausmus has never been an offensive dynamo, the knowledge of how to call a game, and his four Gold Gloves will definitely be beneficial in Towles development in Houston.

Then we get to Ty Wigginton and Lance Berkman on the corners, who each bring their own unique skills-set to the game.

In Berkman you get a first baseman with a good glove who can spend a little time in the outfield when needed, and a guy who can easily hit 30 homers and 100 RBI a season (he’s done it five times to be exact).

Over at third however, Wigginton (acquired from Tampa Bay last season) who has proved that he has moderate power in both the NL and the AL, and can provide you with a solid 80 RBI for the season, while offering some versatility on the infield (spending time at first, second, and third over his career). However, with Geoff Blum and Mark Loretta on board, the belief heading into the season is that Wigginton will be used solely at third base, in hopes of building a strong relationship with the other infielders.

In the outfield, the "Big Man on Campus" is Carlos Lee, who posted some big numbers last season (32 homers, 119 RBI, .303 average), his first with the ‘Stros. Aside from his rookie season, Lee has never hit fewer than 20 home runs in a season, and has hit over 100 RBI in ever season except one since 2003 (99 RBI in ’04 with the White Sox).

Joining him will be Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn.

Both Pence and Bourn saw some time at the Major League level last season, and each was able to showcase their own abilities.

Bourn went 19/20 in stealing bases with the Phillies, while providing spotless defense in the outfield, while Pence saw a highly successful 17 homer, 69 RBI season transpire, compiled with a .322 average.

The way it looks, the Astros will have a fairly solid outfield that can beat you in many different ways on the offensive and defensive side of the ball for years to come, however the key to their production this season will be to avoid sophomore slumps and injuries. If they can do that, you can expect equal or even better results than last season.

The rotation will be anchored once again by Roy Oswalt in 2008—a pitcher who has never won fewer than ten games (he’s won twenty twice), has thrown over 200 innings in five out of the seven seasons he’s appeared in, and never had a record below .500 in the Majors.

To put that in perspective, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, and Carlos Zambrano have all had at least one season below .500 in the Majors.

That’ll be where the rotation trails off however, as Wandy Rodriguez (a consistent 9-10 game winner with a  high ERA), Brandon Backe (a guy who just can’t stay healthy), Chris Sampson (who took a very sharp fall last year 7-8, 4.58 ERA after his 2006 cup of coffee 2-1, 2.12 ERA), and a 41-year-old Woody Williams, who posted his highest ERA of his career (5.27) and has averaged three strikeouts per start the past three years, while he’s averaged over Four K’s per start every season before 2005.

Then we move to the mish-mash that is the bullpen. Granted, there are five experienced arms in the ‘pen with Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, Dave Borkowski, Geoff Geary, and Oscar Villarreal. Granted all of these guys have appeared in over 200 MLB games (except for Dave Borkowski who is only at 155) but aside from Valverde (who SHOULD be anyhow) none of these guys are “shut down relievers.” Yes, Borkowski has shown potential, but all of these guys have career ERAs that are near the 4.00 mark (Villareal is the farthest from that mark at 3.71 for his career, but he’s coming off of a 4.24 2007).

Aside from those arms, the race to fill out the bullpen is a crapshoot as you’ve got everyone from Mike DeJean and Chad Paronto, to Wesley Wright and Ryan Houston. Needless to say, if the Astros can’t get significant contributions from every arm in their arsenal, then it could be a long year.

2008 Prediction: 73-89, 4th in NL Central

Cincinnati Reds (2007 Results: 72-90, Fifth in NL Central) 

So as I’m writing this, I’ve just found out the Cincinnati Reds clobbered the Yankees 12-8 in Spring Training and I couldn’t be happier. I don’t care who beats them, so long as the Yankees lose.

As for Reds fans, I’m hoping that the good news I’m bringing will make them as happy as their team made me.

The Reds will have one of the more intriguing outfields to watch this season, as there are some questions that could use some answering:

1) Will this season be Adam Dunn’s (who would be SO much better in the AL as a DH than an outfielder in the NL due to his defense) last in Cincinnati?

I mean, Dunn’s name pops up fairy frequently around trade deadline time, and nothing ever seems to happen. Granted Dunn has his ups (four straight 40 homer seasons) and downs (nearly 200 strikeouts in 2004 and 2006 and a comically low batting average—meaning a 70 percent chance of hitting below .250 for a season), but Cincinnati could probably pull down a fairly heft price for this guy if they were to dangle him amongst the Angels/Yankees/Red Sox trifecta.

Besides, Dunn could easily command an enormous contract from any of those teams once he hits the open market, and Cincy would be left empty handed if he left via free agency. There’s a lot Dunn can do in a lineup, but his departure could help Cincy just as much.

2) Can Ken Griffey Jr. remain relatively healthy for another season?

From 2001 to 2005, Griffey seemed to be an enormous bust for the Cincinnati Reds, as he couldn’t stay healthy enough to even walk to the ball field. Since 2005 however, Griffey has played in over 100 games, pumped out at least 25 home runs, had two 90 RBI seasons, and last year he even stole six bases (his highest total since 2000)!

For a guy who ran into ghastly injury problems, the comeback K.G. Jr. has made is heartwarming to say the least, so I hope Griffey can keep up his renaissance until the day he retires. After all, it’ll be much more gratifying if we can watch Griffey walk away from baseball when he chooses to, instead of limping away from the game as we feared a few years ago.

3) Who starts in center field?

There’s Ryan Freel, who brings solid wheels and the versatility to move between the outfield and the infield. There’s Norris Hopper who proved that his .359 in 39 at-bats in 2006 wasn’t an aberration as he batted .329 in 307 at-bats in 2007 (although he didn’t hit a homer all year) and has his own little set of wheels, and then there’s Jay Bruce—the five-tool stud, who no one can stop talking about. Although the job is rumored to be Bruce’s, Cincinnati is prepared to make Bruce earn it during camp, but for a guy who hits .300, can belt a few long balls, run the bases well and dominate the defensive side of the game that shouldn’t be too hard should it?

Back behind the plate, David Ross will return after an offensive season that was a let down when compared with 2006.

However, even if Ross were to replicate his .203 average of 2007, he’ll be able to make up for it on defense as Ross was able to field the ninth-best fielding percentage amongst catchers to appear in 100 or more games, and he had the fourth best caught-stealing percentage amongst the 15 catchers who threw out the most potential base stealers in ’07.

But don’t discount Javier Valentin—in limited time last season (until the last month of the season) Valentin was able to prove that offensively he belongs in this Reds lineup, and with more of a commitment to his defensive play, Valentine could very well challenge Ross for the starter’s job.

On the infield, I don’t really need to tell you what Brandon Phillips did last year. He was tied for eighth in errors amongst second basemen that played more than 100 games. He was fourth in defensive innings played and double plays turned, and he even pulled out a 30/30 season with a .288 average and 94 RBI. His homer and RBI numbers will probably fall in between his ’06 and ’07 numbers, and he may not replicate 30/30, but this guy is proving that he’s the real deal in Cincy.

Over at short, there’s long-time Marlin Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez brings you some steady power (10 homers) at the shortstop position, and although his glove isn’t stellar, he’s not a player that will lose you games when he’s on the field.

On the corners, there’s Edwin Encarnacion and a combination of Scott Hatteberg and Joey Votto. Although Votto impressed in his call-up last year (.321, 4 HR, 17RBI), he’s still got a lot to learn at the Major League level, and word is he’s got a few things to learn about the defensive aspects of the game, which is where Hatteberg comes in: Although Hatteberg has had his limitations on the offensive side of the ball, he has proven that his defensive prowess is invaluable, and that if he were to pass on this knowledge to Votto and take him under his wing, the Reds could have a very dangerous weapon at first following Hatteberg’s departure.

Meanwhile, Edwin Encarnacion is entrenched at third base, and entering his fourth Major League season, the kid just keeps improving. Although his doubles and walks dropped last season while his strikeouts rose, Encarnacion made steady progress, improving his home run, RBI, stolen base, and batting average totals each of the past three seasons. Granted in his sophomore season (2006) Edwin tied Chad Tracy of Arizona for the lead amongst Major League third basemen in errors with 25, but he rebounded nicely last season, cutting six errors off that total, in 236.2 more innings, and will look to have yet another strong season in 2008.

Rotation-wise, it’ll be Aaron Harang leading the way for the Reds again, as he comes off his second-consecutive season with 16 wins and 200+ strikeouts, and his third consecutive season with 200 innings and an ERA under 4.00. Following him will be the man of many hairstyles, Bronson Arroyo, entering his third season with the Reds. Although 2006 Arroyo provided the Reds with a solid 14 wins, 2007 was a bit of a different story, finishing with a 9-15 record, and tagged with a 4.23 ERA—his highest since 2001.

The final three spots could go to any one of Matt Belisle, Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Maloney. If roles were going to be awarded on experience alone, then Fogg, Belisle, and Affeldt would hold down the third and fourth spots in the rotation, as they lead the way with 37 and 42 big league starts respectively.

But as we’ve found over the years, you can’t just rely on experience and hope to win a job.

Both Belisle and Affeldt have career ERAs in the 4.70-4.90 range, while combining for just 40 wins in 412 career games. Then you’ve got Josh Fogg with an even 60-60 record for his career, and a 4.90 ERA.Volquez has spent parts of the last three seasons with the Rangers, and only recently was able to have a season with his ERA below 5.00 (his career ERA is 7.20 in 20 career games). Homer Bailey spent nine games with the big club last season, and although he allowed 29 earned runs in nine games, Bailey was able to post a 4-2 record, despite posting identical totals in strikeouts and walks (28).

Both Matt Maloney (2-1, 3.17 ERA in 3 starts) and Johnny Cuteo (2-1, 2.05 ERA in 4 starts) looked strong at the Triple-A level last season, but it will be the performances in the spring that will determine who the remaining three members of Cincy’s rotation will be.

Then we get to the bullpen, where David Weathers is out as closer (and moving to the setup spot) and Francisco Cordero brings his 177 career saves to the ninth inning in Cincinnati.

Since coming to the National League, Cordero posted a 1.69 ERA in 28 games with Milwaukee in ’06, and a 2.98 ERA with the Brew Crew in 2007, so staying in the Central bodes well for the burly righty, and with Weathers and his 33 saves from a year ago setting the table, the idea is that the eighth and ninth innings should be fairly easy to weather (excuse the pun).

Add into that young Jared Burton, who finished last season at 4-2 with a 2.51 ERA, and the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings could be strong points for the Reds this season.

That’s where the effectiveness curtails however, as returning are Mike Stanton (1-3, 5.93 ERA), Gary Majewski (0-4, 8.22 ERA), and Todd Coffey (2-1, 5.82 ERA). Although Coffey has trimmed off some excess weight, and Majewski has seemingly impressed manager Dusty Baker so far this spring, these relievers need to prove they can be counted on this season if Cincy hopes to go anywhere.

There is still some competition in the bullpen for spots, but no matter who’s back there, they only way that the Cincinnati Reds win games this year is if their relievers are effective. But when you’ve really only got three trustable arms back there, this season might turn into a question of when Weathers, Cordero, and Burton will break down, rather than the Reds contending.

2008 Results: 77-85, 3rd in NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers (2007 Result: 83-79, Second in Central)

Vegetarianism? In Milwaukee? That just moved Prince Fielder’s career as a New York Yankee two years closer!

But seriously, why would you go vegetarian after seeing vast improvements in all of your offensive categories? Sure there’s the fact that his wife and kids were already vegetarians, it can be seen as beneficial to one’s health, and it’s a completely acceptable personal choice, but last year’s 50 homers and 119 RBI were done on All-American beef, so here’s what we’re left with:

1) If Fielder’s offensive game remains as explosive as last year, then he’s a talented ball-player, with a penchant for power.

2) IF Fielder’s offensive game suffers, the entire city of Milwaukee will hunt down Rory Freedman and Kim Barnouin, and force-feed them copies of their own book in exchange for ruining their superstar.

Despite his new lifestyle choice however, the only thing that could hinder Fielder’s performance this year is if he gets too concerned with his contract standing in Milwaukee, which could either help or hinder the beefy slugger.

As far as the rest of the infield, the shifting continues as Bill Hall who played shortstop in 2006 and moved to centerfield last season (to make room for J.J. Hardy), is back on the infield as he replaces Ryan Braun who moved to left field.

Hall immediately provides a defensive upgrade at the hot corner, as Braun committed 26 errors in just 112 games, while Hall has committed 11 errors in 84 career games at third. Even if Hall were to play a complete 162 season at third, his career error rate would only have him on pace for 21 errors—five fewer than Braun in 50 more games.

Fortunately for the Brewers, Braun and Hall are merely swapping fields, so offensively nothing will be lost, while if Hall’s ankle is healed, he could return to his 12-18 steal potential, and an increase over his 14 homers last season.

Up the middle is one half of my All-Star shortstop combo in my fantasy pool last year—J.J. Hardy. Hardy finished the season with 26 homers, one behind Khalil Greene (the other half of my shortstop combo), for third amongst shortstops.

The big question with J.J., however, will be whether or not his production was a thing of legend, as back in 2005 Hardy finished with nine homers, 50 RBI, and a .247 average in 124 games, and he was able to add 17 homers, 30 RBI, and 30 points to his average in 2007 in just 27 more games.

Across the way at second, Rickie Weeks will have to recapture his late season success following injury troubles early on in 2007, and see if he can replicate some of the chemistry he found turning double plays with J.J. while he’ll be receiving throws from new addition Jason Kendall, a catcher who watched his average take a severe hit last year after splitting time with Oakland and the Chicago Cubs. What Kendall does bring however, is a strong defensive presence, as well as the potential to return to a .300 average.

As we touched on before, Ryan Braun is taking over in left field with the big question being whether or not he can make the transition defensively. There to help him however will be three-time gold-glover Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, Gabe Gross, Tony Gwynn Jr., and (to an extent) Gabe Kapler.

Now granted, Cameron brings solid defense to the Brew Crew; however, there are two things against him:

1) Cameron is older, and he’s starting to get banged up.

Sure he put up some alright numbers with a thumb injury last season, but his mobility is starting to decline, and he’s played over 140 games every single season (except for 2005) since 1998.

2) The suspension.

Cameron is going to start the season serving a 25-game suspension for testing positive for a banned stimulant. So not only is there the possibility that Cameron breaks down this season (despite having a 25-game “vacation”) but there’s also the possibility that he comes into the season rusty, which could hurt him just as much.

In Cameron’s place for those 25 games will be Gabe Kapler, Gabe Gross, and Tony Gwynn Jr.

First of all, is this the first time there’s ever been two Gabe’s in the same outfield, let alone platooning at the same position?

Then there’s the fact that Gabe Gross has never hit over 10 home runs in a single season or played more than 60 games defensively in any season throughout his career, and neither he or Kapler have the ability do dominate pitching (Gross: 0.91 average vs. Left, .246 average vs. Right; Kapler: 0.265 vs. Left, .242 vs. Right).

Then you’ve got yet another guy in Gwynn Jr. who’s been primarily used as a pinch-hitter throughout his two years in the league, and although he’s effective (Padres fans are willing to trade their first-born for this guy—not just because he’s Tony Gwynn Jr., but they saw what his speed can do to teams first hand) it’ll be the same question that face Kapler and Gross:

Is he going to be able to rise to the occasion in Cameron’s absence?

Then we get to Corey Hart who will look to build upon last year’s success:

.295 average, 24 homers, 81 RBI.

To add to the offensive upside, Hart has also proven to be valuable in the outfield as well. However, with the game of musical chairs going on in centerfield, and Ryan Braun’s inexperience in left, Corey Hart has now become the man in the outfield—something he wasn’t used to with Bill Hall and Geoff Jenkins last year—so this year all hinges on how Hart deals with this new-found pressure.

As for the pitching, it’s basically all potential:

The potential to be really good, or the potential to be banged up, and very bad.

On the rotation side of things there’s Ben Sheets who has cracked the 150-inning mark just once in the past three years while battling various ailments.

When healthy, Sheets is undoubtedly great, but that’s the thing—he’s got to be healthy, and last year he wasn’t.

Then there’s Jeff Suppan and Yovani Gallardo who’ll round out the top three. The only thing with this “top three” is that Suppan has had an ERA under 4.00 twice in his thirteen-year career (not exactly a stat you want from your number two guy), while Gallardo finds himself coming into only his second year in the league, who in light of an amiable first season (9-5, 3.67 ERA, 101 strikeouts, 110.1 innings in 17 starts) is faced with lofty expectations of performing for a team expected to challenge for the division title.

Then to round out the rotation you have to choose from Dave Bush (who seems to like living with an ERA in the 4.40-5.00 range), Carlos Villanueva (a veteran of 12 Major League starts in 69 games), Chris Capuano (who’s like diet Dave Bush except with an 18 win season on his resume), Claudio Vargas (again, see Dave Bush), and Manny Parra who saw limited action last season.

Granted most of the names you saw above have won at least 10 games in the season, but the only way to ensure success like that is to keep your ERA low, which none of these guys have proved they can do consistently.

Over in the bullpen, you say the name Eric Gagne and Boston Red Sox fans laugh (or shed tears of joy because he’s off their team). As we all remember, Gagne used to have an electric arm—until injuries hit.

Following a low-profile stint in Texas for the first part of last year, he was shipped to Boston so he could strengthen the Sox bullpen so they could take a run at the World Series.

Well the Red Sox won it all, but it was in spite of what Gagne brought to the table, as he posted and ERA of 6.75 in just 20 games.

But don’t worry Brewers fans, if Gagne doesn’t pan out, you’ve still got Derrick Turnbow who turned in six blown saves and an ERA close to 7.00 in his last full season (2006) as the closer.

If that doesn’t tickle your fancy, you’ve got Randy Choate who’s seen 40 games in the past three years, Guillermo Mota who was just dynamite last year for the Mets (2-2, 5.76 ERA), Soloman Torres who put together a few solid years in Pittsburgh (namely 2005 and 2006), Seth McClung who saw some success with the Brewers in limited action last season after escaping Tampa Bay.

Oh, and you’ve got Brian Shouse who should see some success against left-handed hitter given his history (lefties hit .214 against him).

Are the Brewers talented?

In some areas, yes they are. However, it seems their destined for second-place with the growing pains they could face in the outfield and the misplaced trust in this “new and improved” bullpen.

2008 Prediction: 84-78, 2nd in NL Central.

Chicago Cubs (2007 Results: 85-77, 1st in Central)

Alright, we’ve finally come to the end of the NL Central, and I’ve done a horrible job of hiding the fact that I think Chicago will come out on top. So to rectify this, I’ll try to do this as quickly and painlessly as possible.

At first, the Cubs have three-time gold-glover Derrek Lee, a guy who (if he stays healthy—duh) can challenge for the Triple Crown as evidence by his 2005 numbers (46 homers, 107 RBI, .335 average). To put that in perspective, Lee would have tied for fourth in homers, 18th in RBI, and seventh in average this past season with those 2005 numbers. Perhaps with a huge year by Lee and a few off years from those on top (*cough* A-Rod, Magglio, Ichirio) Lee could do it.

Across at third you’ve got Aramis Ramirez, who’s no Derrek Lee but he’s pretty damn close. Ramirez can hit for average (.318, .302, .290, .310 the last four years as a Cub) and power (three of the past four seasons with 30 or more homers), while his development on defense continues as he tied a career-low for errors (10) and set a career-high for assists (260) in 2007.

Mark DeRosa is back from his irregular heartbeat, and will provide the Cubs a solid bat (.290-3.00 average), a solid glove at second, and some versatility around the field if it’s needed. If DeRosa’s heart (or any other part of his anatomy) starts to act up however, Mike Fontenot can provide an able body of the bench.

At shortstop, Ryan Theriot will come in and provide some quality speed, and a fiery personality that will be sure to help the Cubs on the base paths, and on the defensive side of the ball.

In the outfield, Alfonso Soriano returns to left field in hopes of getting into a more consistent groove than last year, aiming to mix his monstrous power and his propensity for getting on base (and stealing them for that matter), as well as getting more accustomed to the “Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field” (he hit .274 on the road opposed to .325 on the road).

As far as center and right field go, however, it’s up to Felix Pie and Kosuke Fukudome to make adjustments to playing at the Major League level.

For Pie, he’ll have to work at producing as he did in his minor league career (.306 career average in Triple-A ball) while Fukudome will just have to get used to the North American way of playing baseball, and the culture (a look into his career in Japan: .305 average, 192 homeruns, 647 RBI, 71 stolen bases in 1074 games).

As far as the catching duties, Geovany Soto seems to be prepared to take over the starter's reigns, while he’ll look to Henry Blanco for defensive tutelage and support.

And why shouldn’t he? Blanco has thrown out runners at a 42.6 percent clip over his career, and has also worked to hold a .994 career fielding percentage as a catcher.

Overall, the Cubs rotation was excellent last year.

Carlos Zambrano led the way with an 18-13 record and an ERA of 3.95 (54 points above his career average). Following him in the rotation will be Ted Lilly (15-8, 3.38 ERA), and Rich Hill (11-8, 3.92 ERA).

Meanwhile, the fourth and fifth spots look to be given to any combination of Jon Lieber, Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis (baring he’s not traded to Baltimore for Brian Roberts) or Ryan Dempster who’s hoping to make it back into a starting rotation for the first time since 2003 (overlooking a brief 6 starts in 2005 with the Cubs).

But with Dempster eyeing the rotation, that leaves the closer’s role open in the back of the bullpen, which looks like it might come down to a three horse race: Bob Howry, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Marmol.

Initially, Howry’s past experience in the closer’s role would give him a little bit of an edge in the race with 65 career saves, but Wood has shown the complacency and mind-set that it takes to be a closer in the past, and Marmol posted one of the quietest 1.43 ERA seasons ever.

As for the rest of the bullpen, Scott Eyre will hope to hold on to his second-half success from last season, while Jose Ascanio will try to bring down last year’s 5.06 ERA. Michael Wuertz will again be looked to coming out of the ‘pen at Wrigley, while Tim Lahey will look to compete for a spot on the big club, as will Neal Cotts who began the season with the Cubs last season, but ran into troubles and eventually a demotion to Triple-A.

The Cubs have got a pretty complete package heading into this season, and if Ryan Dempster’s “if we play to our potential, we can win the world series” attitude holds true, the Cubs could erase last year’s disappointing finish against the Diamondbacks from fans’ minds.

2008 Prediction: 90-72, 1st in NL Central