SABR 42: A New Proposal to Determine Home-Field Advantage in the World Series

The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) held its annual convention in Minneapolis from June 27 through July 1. It was gloriously nerdy and insightful.

One presentation from the program was particularly timely for this midsummer meet-up.

SABR member Jed Dukett made a 25-minute proposal in which he explained an original method for determining home-field advantage in the World Series. 

Rather than basing the decision on MLB All-Star Game results, Dukett suggested, regular-season performance should be the principal factor.

Whichever league sends stronger teams to the playoffs ought to host, he continued. If the NL's top five combine for a higher aggregate winning percentage than the AL's quintet, the Senior Circuit deserves the edge in four of seven Fall Classic games (and vice versa).

Jed already had my vote. After all, anything beats the "this time it counts" experiment.

After the 2002 All-Star exhibition ended in a 11-inning tie, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig—and the owners—agreed that future showcases needed higher stakes. Home field in late October has been decided in July ever since, largely by players who won't even qualify for the postseason.

Looking at the past nine years, I've compared Dukett's proposal and Selig's policy:

Year	Higher Aggregate Winning Percentage	All-Star Game Winner
2003	American League	American League
2004	National League	American League
2005	American League	American League
2006	American League	American League
2007	American League	American League
2008	American League	American League
2009	American League	American League
2010	American League	National League
2011	National League	National League

In both cases, the AL would have hosted seven times.The methods rewarded opposite leagues in only two instances (2004 and 2010).

While this difference seems insignificant, we're of course dealing with a tiny sample size.

Regular season and mid-season are completely independent, and the former deserves to have a larger influence.

Three division winners and two Wild Cards will represent each league in the 2012 playoffs. Heading into July 4, the clubs holding on to those positions are as follows:

AL Playoff-Bound Teams	NL Playoff-Bound Teams
East - New York Yankees (48-32)	East - Washington Nationals (46-32)
Central - Chicago White Sox (43-37)	Central - Cincinnati/Pittsburgh (44-36)
West - Texas Rangers (50-31)	West - San Francisco Giants (45-36)
WC 1 - Los Angeles Angels (45-36)	WC 1 - Los Angeles Dodgers (45-37)
WC 2 - Baltimore Orioles (43-37)	WC 2 - New York Mets (44-37)
Agg. Win Percentage: .570 (229-173)	Agg. Win Percentage: .557 (224-178)

Personally, I support Dukett's idea. It lets competitive teams control their own destinies and motivates them to start their regulars through the 162nd game. Interleague play gains importance, as it gives AL and NL leaders the opportunities to take direct shots at their counterparts' aggregate winning percentages.

Dukett reminded the audience that home-field advantage used to alternate every year. He admitted that reviving the practice would be the simplest solution to this debate, but that it takes "fun" out of the determination.

Though not a perfect solution, his is preferable to what's currently in place...right?

Readers, share your thoughts in the comments section below.

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