Fantasy Baseball: Tiering It Up on Draft Day, Pt. 2

Yesterday, in part one, we took a look at how to approach the first eight rounds of a draft. Today, we'll examine the latter three tiers we've developed to help owners bring their drafts into focus.

Let's get down to it.

Rounds 9-14: The Depth Builders

After successfully navigating the early rounds to your draft, the middle rounds are the time where owners round out their roster and build depth across positions that need work. These rounds help owners fill areas that require multiple starters (such as the outfield and pitching) or establish some security on the bench.

Unfortunately, owners can’t have studs at every position. They can have steady players across the board starting, but there are bound to be one or two spots, at a minimum, that will require attention even after the draft is over.

By evaluating where you want to take risks, these rounds of the draft become more useful. I advocate using them for building your rotation and rounding out your starting spots. In general, I want most of my positional starters determined by the time round 14 comes to a close.

It’s at that point we really step outside the top-150 players. Why not ensure that you’re dealing with guys on a regular basis that are going to help your team more than hurt them?

Are there exceptions? Certainly. Don’t jump on a catcher simply because you need to start one. As you look at players remaining on the board, you may find that one position is much deeper than others and decide to wait until later to fill it. It’s all in the course of events.

These rounds give you flexibility in your roster, and fantasy is all about options and matchups.

The players available in these rounds often have flaws in their game. When you look at a pitcher, you may be sacrificing WHIP or K/BB in order to grab a guy that consistently wins. There may be a flamethrower with no control, or a solid pitcher on a poor team.

In the batter’s box, you may find power without average, or steals without much help in the RBI category. There are puts and takes across players that make them valuable in some respects, but not in others.

A wide range of players can fit this bill. Adam Wainwright, most closers, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Burnett, and Jim Thome are all within this band and can all help your team in many different ways.

Pitching is much more plentiful in these rounds as far as rankings go. Keep that in mind as you enter and work with this part of a draft.

Rounds 15-19: The Sleepers

Everybody has them. Web sites are devoted to them. Experts talk about them constantly. They’re sleepers. We all think certain players are the best-kept secret of a draft. Sadly, the best-kept secrets are often the worst.

Why call this section “sleepers” then? Because legit sleepers are found around this time of a draft. At a minimum, you’re picking around the 150 mark of rankings, up to about the 180th ranked player as a base. By the end of this band, you’ve crept close, if not into, the 200+ range.

That’s where you find upside guys. Sure, we can all talk about David Price, Matt Wieters, and Nelson Cruz. Everyone has, as a matter of fact. When you do that, you drive up the asking price, increase the hype, and raise the expectations. Now, these guys are anticipated to do well by a large percentage of the fantasy world.

If they do? Great, they should have. If they don’t? You’re the one that suffers. These players SHOULD be drafted around the 175-190 range, in my opinion. Some drafts have them going 50-75 spots higher. That’s a five round difference!

Let’s repeat the mantra, just for good measure: “I can make up for mistakes made later in drafts, but if I make them early I’m screwed.” Very good, class.

Sure, players taken here aren’t always sleepers.

Rick Ankiel has been regularly found in this range and provides tremendous value for a 25-home run hitter. The same is true of Mark Reynolds, despite his propensity to strike out. Even Chien-Ming Wang is being found buried here because of his injury last season.

By no means are these players actual sleepers. As I’ve discussed before, there are players buried in the rankings for a myriad (SAT word) of reasons. These stars have as much upside, if not more, than any rookie you’ll find. Why? We’ve seen the production!

Sleepers still imply that we’re anticipating success. Rookies and young stars require us as owners to project when their time will come and when they will reach fantasy stardom.

If you’re wrong here, that’s ok. Cutting a player is easy and you haven’t necessarily wasted a pick. If you’re right, ride the wave and enjoy it.

Rounds 20-25: The Reaches and Fill-ins

I’m probably broad-brushing these rounds, but the reality of the situation is that most players picked here fit the description. When you get to this point in the draft, players selected are filling in as backups when a starter has a day off or you have a feeling on a player.

Every once in a while, you’ll get lucky with who you select in this band. For the most part, owners are still selecting players here for a specific reason. Still, teams shouldn’t get all that attached to the names being called during this part of the draft.

Why?

When you look at your roster after the first two weeks, month, or two months, the last rounds are where you will make cuts in order to improve. Unless something freaky happens, an owner is unlikely to remove a player from their team picked in the first half of a draft.

Players here are ranked as high as 200 in 10-team leagues all the way up to 300 in round 25 for 12-team formats. With the bottom of the draftable players here, developing targets and understanding why players are available helps.

Drafting in these spots means you are filling out your rotation with high-upside pitchers. You can do very well here in that regard. Brandon Morrow, Chris Volstad, and even John Maine can be found toward the end of drafts. These three pitchers represent a chance to steal a solid player.

Volstad came on strong at the end of the year, Morrow is learning to be a starter, and Maine has been up and down over several years.

I’ve seen players like Jeff Weaver and Mark Buehrle ranked this low as well. Doesn’t mean they’ll be available in round 25, but they could be available around the 19th.

Position players taken here are not as likely to give you star quality, but represent another place to achieve some upside. Most owners are looking for flexibility in these rounds as well, so multiple position options have more value than they do earlier in a draft.

In addition to these options, it’s the best time to jump on some young stars at positions as well as those mentioned on the mound. Who should be around here? Jed Lowrie of Boston fits two criteria by playing multiple positions and having some upside potential. Billy Butler and Jeff Clement fit the same bill as well.

Veteran stars still fighting for jobs may find there way down to the bottom of the draft. It’s just not as likely, because many owners end up drafting by name recognition at this point.

The system of tiering a draft can help owners identify where they should direct their attention during a draft. It’s not scientific, but keeping your thoughts in an order makes selections easier. Treat each draft separately, find out what you’ll have in front of you, and use this as a base to develop your own roster.