2012 NBA Draft Order: Odds Every Pick Will Be Traded on Draft Night
While the 2012 NBA draft order is officially set for Thursday night, it won't stay the same by the time the first 30 prospects have heard their names called and posed for pictures.
Chase Budinger has already changed hands (via SI.com), going from the Houston Rockets to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 18 pick, but the pieces certainly aren't done falling.
Let's break down the chances that each first-round pick changes hands.
1. New Orleans Hornets: 0 percent chance of a trade
There is a better chance of me growing a unibrow than the New Orleans Hornets trading away the rights to draft the clear No. 1 player in this draft class, a mega-hyped prospect with a great chance at becoming a star.
I'm not a professional basketball player. I can't pull off a unibrow.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: 80 percent chance of a trade
The Charlotte Bobcats have been thinking about dealing this pick away for a while now, with the most recent rumor (per SI.com) sending the pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 4 and No. 24 selection.
Whether it's to Cleveland or not, this pick will be dealt. Michael Jordan and the Charlotte brass understand that they need more than just one stud rookie to rebuild this team.
3. Washington Wizards: 0 percent chance of a trade
The Washington Wizards would prefer to draft Bradley Beal, but they'd be perfectly fine with Thomas Robinson or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as well.
There's no reason for them to do anything other than stay put.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: 60 percent chance of a trade
Although I expect this pick to change hands and go to the Charlotte Bobcats, I can't make the chance as likely, because Charlotte could very well receive a better offer.
The Cleveland Cavaliers would love to get their hands on Bradley Beal, but the only way to do that is to move up past the Wizards.
5. Sacramento Kings: 5 percent chance of a trade
With only one pick in the first round and a number of potential players to draft here, moving up in the order is unlikely.
What the Sacramento Kings do with this pick will be interesting because they have options. They just won't trade it.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn Nets): 40 percent chance of a trade
Any team with two picks in the lottery is a threat to move up and select an even better player or package the two picks for an established star.
There haven't been any big and credible rumors about these picks, but interest will start to rise as the draft approaches.
7. Golden State Warriors: 10 percent chance of a trade
The Golden State Warriors may trade this pick to the Chicago Bulls for Luol Deng, but Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski says that it won't happen.
You can't ever fully believe the rumors leading up to the draft, but this one appears to be staying in the hands of the Dubs.
8. Toronto Raptors: 10 percent chance of a trade
The Houston Rockets have been rumored to be interested in the No. 8 pick, but Toronto Raptors vice president of basketball operations Ed Stefanski doesn't see it happening, per the National Post:
"I would say on Monday, but Thursday’s a long way away, that we’d be holding on to that eighth pick. I think it’s the talent, right now. There are offers out there for the eighth pick. But it’s the talent right now.
"
Toronto is in an interesting spot here because they need a wing player, but the only ones out there carry a lot of risk for a top-10 pick.
9. Detroit Pistons: 0 percent chance of a trade
The Detroit Pistons don't have the assets to move up in the draft, and they have too many holes in their lineup to move down.
Detroit will be targeting length to pair with Greg Monroe in the frontcourt, and there should be plenty of options available at No. 9.
10. New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota Timberwolves): 20 percent chance of a trade
The New Orleans Hornets may trade their second pick in the 2012 NBA draft for a more established young contributor (via ESPN SportsNation), but the appeal of a second top-10 prospect is going to be too much to pass up.
This one could happen; it's just pretty unlikely.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: 40 percent chance of a trade
Any team with two picks in the lottery is a threat to move up and select an even better player or package the two picks for an established star.
There haven't been any big and credible rumors about these picks, but interest will start to rise as the draft approaches.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: 5 percent chance of a trade
General manager John Hammond has made a trade each year since 2008, but he doesn't think it'll happen this year, per Hoopsworld:
"We have done this over the last couple years. We’ve made a major trade at the draft. And to be honest with you, we’re hoping not to do something like that.
I remember saying (last year), ‘We’re doing too much of this.’ Whatever we can do to improve our team we’re going to do. But we’ve got some pieces we think we can move forward with. We like our team.
We like Brandon (Jennings) at 1; we like Monta (Ellis) at 2. We like Luc Mbah a Moute. We like Tobias Harris; we like Jon Leuer. We like Drew Gooden; we like Ekpe (Udoh). We like Larry Sanders.
They’re young players; they’re good players. They have upside. I hope something like that doesn’t happen.
Once again, it comes back to what is the right thing to do for this organization. If that’s the case, we would do it (a trade). But I don’t foresee that happening.
"
13. Phoenix Suns: 40 percent chance of a trade
The Phoenix Suns could do anything in this draft, and it wouldn't surprise anyone.
Lance Blanks could choose to stay in the spot, move up or even trade down. If the Suns move up, it's going to be for Dion Waiters. Moving down would be for a player like Kendall Marshall at a lower spot.
14. Houston Rockets: 90 percent chance of a trade
The Houston Rockets are desperately trying to get Dwight Howard to come to their organization (per ESPN.com) and now have three draft picks to do so after trading Chase Budinger to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 18 pick.
Even if they can't land Howard, keeping all three of these picks isn't going to happen. With the picks packed so closely together, this is the one they'd look to move first, because it would hold the most value.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: 30 percent chance of a trade
With Andre Iguodala on the roster, there's always a chance that the Philadelphia 76ers choose to deal away the talented swingman and package the No. 15 pick along with him.
Philly has a solid lineup right now and doesn't have any massive needs that could be solved with a pick just outside the lottery.
16. Houston Rockets (from New York Knicks): 80 percent chance of a trade
The Houston Rockets are desperately trying to get Dwight Howard to come to their organization (per ESPN.com) and now have three draft picks to do so after trading Chase Budinger to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 18 pick.
Even if they can't land Howard, keeping all three of these picks isn't going to happen. With the picks packed so closely together, this is the one they'd look to move first, because it would hold the most value.
17. Dallas Mavericks: 0 percent chance of a trade
The Dallas Mavericks need to find a guard, and they'll have plenty of options at No. 17. I can't see this one changing hands.
18. Houston Rockets (from Minnesota Timberwolves): 75 percent chance of a trade
The Houston Rockets are desperately trying to get Dwight Howard to come to their organization (per ESPN.com) and now have three draft picks to do so after trading Chase Budinger to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 18 pick.
Even if they can't land Howard, keeping all three of these picks isn't going to happen. With the picks packed so closely together, this is the one they'd look to move first, because it would hold the most value.
19. Orlando Magic: 50 percent chance of a trade
If you have any idea what the Orlando Magic are going to do with this pick, you're in better shape than I am.
They could hold onto it, trade it to move down, trade it in a package along with Dwight Howard or come up with some method of dealing with it that I haven't even heard of yet.
20. Denver Nuggets: 10 percent chance of a trade
The Denver Nuggets don't have any needs in the starting lineup, and they have a good bit of depth at most positions, but they should hold onto this pick.
In a draft like this one that's filled with talent as the order progresses, the chances are better than normal of stealing a contributor at No. 20.
21. Boston Celtics: 65 percent chance of a trade
The Boston Celtics rarely have rookies contribute heavily to the rotation, so it would make sense to trade one or both of their late first-round picks for an established player that Doc Rivers would feel comfortable throwing out on the court.
Boston could have a bunch of needs if Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen both leave, but it'll remedy that problem through free agency.
22. Boston Celtics (from Los Angeles Clippers): 64 percent chance of a trade
The Boston Celtics rarely have rookies contribute heavily to the rotation, so it would make sense to trade one or both of their late first-round picks for an established player that Doc Rivers would feel comfortable throwing out on the court.
Boston could have a bunch of needs if Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen both leave, but it'll remedy that problem through free agency.
This pick has slightly lower odds, because the No. 21 pick holds slightly more value than the No. 22 pick.
23. Atlanta Hawks: 0 percent chance of a trade
New general manager Danny Ferry isn't going to immediately trade down in the draft, and the Atlanta Hawks have no need to move up in the draft. Josh Smith may be moved, but not this pick.
This one is safe.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles Lakers): 60 percent chance of a trade
Although I expect this pick to change hands and go to the Charlotte Bobcats, I can't make the chance as likely because Charlotte could very well receive a better offer.
The Cleveland Cavaliers would love to get their hands on Bradley Beal, but the only way to do that is to move up past the Wizards. To do that, they'll most likely have to move this No. 24 pick.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: 20 percent chance of a trade
The Memphis Grizzlies might move this pick simply because they want to save money. The plan du jour right now is to draft-and-stash.
A trade might make it simpler, or it might complicate things.
26. Indiana Pacers: 30 percent chance of a trade
The Indiana Pacers will be looking to trade up on draft night, but there might not be enough teams willing to move down for them to swing a deal.
Indiana would like to add a point guard not named Darren Collison to the rotation, and Marquis Teague isn't going to be around at No. 26.
27. Miami Heat: 0 percent chance of a trade
The Miami Heat have no motivation to make a trade. They need depth help almost across the board, and they should be able to find it at No. 27.
This one is staying put.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: 60 percent chance of a trade
Hoopsworld's Alex Kennedy has the explanation here:
"The Thunder hold pick No. 28, but it’s unlikely that they’ll keep it. Sources close to the situation say that Oklahoma City is satisfied with their young core and they aren’t interested in paying a prospect guaranteed money when he likely won’t be part of the rotation. The Thunder will likely trade or sell the pick. If they aren’t able to move the selection, expect them to draft a foreign player who they can keep overseas for several years.
"
29. Chicago Bulls: 25 percent chance of a trade
The Chicago Bulls are looking to deal either Joakim Noah or Luol Deng (per CSNChicago.com), and the No. 29 pick could be packaged with them in an attempt to move up in the order and find an even better shooting guard.
There's by no means a guarantee that Gar Forman will get rid of this pick, though, even if he trades one of the aforementioned players.
30. Golden State Warriors (from San Antonio Spurs): 70 percent chance of a trade
The Golden State Warriors have four picks in the draft and don't need that many incoming rookies.
The No. 7 pick should be safe, but the No. 30 pick is very much on the table, especially if it's paired with the No. 35 or No. 52 pick in an attempt to move up in the order.
