Top Five Hot MLB Fantasy Draft Questions: Closers

1. Who should be the first closer off the board?

Even though Francisco Rodriguez obliterated the single-season saves record, your first choice should still be Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, so he may be a total fruitcake and needs dance lessons, but you can’t argue with his statistics and that is the basis of fantasy. Since becoming closer three years ago, Papelbon has been impossible to hit.

His ERA has been steadily increasing every year, but it topped out at 2.34, which is still solid for a closer. He has been incredibly durable since early career arm concerns, and he has always struck out more than a batter an inning (84 in 58 IP in 2007!).

K-Rod is a great choice, but can he really duplicate last season? He also did blow seven saves last year, and the number of guys he puts on base and walks he allowed are a little disturbing. No one would call you crazy for taking him though.

Joakim Soria was lights out in 2008, but I want to see him do it again before I put him too high on this list. Joe Nathan is another tough one to argue with, but the only difference I can see is the team he plays on. He’s an elite closer, but I’ll take the guy on the Red Sox.

2. Who will be the best of the new closers?

Frank Francisco has all the stuff to be a dominant closer, he’s a little crazy (remember that chair throwing incident?), he’s got a nasty fastball, and knows how to finish hitters off.

He has some control issues, but he is a dominant strikeout pitcher (83 Ks in 63 IP in ‘08), and will definitely be the closer in Texas heading into this season.

Being on the Rangers might limit his save opportunities, but I definitely see him taking advantage of most of his chances with many of them ending with striking out the side. Of all the guys taking over the reigns of finishing games, Francisco has the best chance of being a dominant guy.

Chad Qualls will take over the ninth inning in Arizona after being a setup man for most of his career. Qualls was asked to close for the D-Backs in late September and was seven-for-seven in saves allowing only two hits and one walk.

He had seven strikeouts in eight innings, and is closing for a team that should compete for a division title. Qualls isn’t the dominant strikeout guy that some other closers are, but he’ll get you some good stats across the board and could be a good second closer option.

3. What can you expect from Mariano Rivera?

The stories of his demise before the 2008 season were obviously premature. Mariano Rivera had one of the best seasons of his career, and given the fact that the guy is hands-down the greatest closer of all time, that is saying a lot.

Rivera only blew one save all season long, and his 39 saves were his most since 2005. Rivera struck out a very strong 77 batters in 70 innings, and his ERA was a ridiculous 1.40. Rivera has now reached age 39, so logic tells you that his age has got to catch up with him eventually.

However, you can throw all logic out the window when you are talking about Rivera. He is dealing with offseason shoulder surgery, but I would expect him to be just fine to start the season.

I wouldn’t draft him expecting a nearly perfect season again, but in a single-season league he is certainly in the class of the elite closers and should be treated that way.

Given the improvements the Yankees have made, you can see him approaching 40 saves again, and although his ERA almost has to go up, but I wouldn’t expect it to go over 2.10.

4. Who closes in St. Louis?

The Cardinals could have a number of candidates. After Jason Isringhausen went down for the hundredth time in recent memory, the Cardinals turned to Ryan Franklin who was solid when first given the job, but quickly was unable to get those final three outs.

Rookie Chris Perez was also given an opportunity after Franklin imploded and recorded seven saves in 11 opportunities.

Perez has electric stuff and probably has the best shot of all the candidates. Fellow rookie Jason Motte came up at the end of the season and dominated, allowing just five hits in 11 innings, while striking out 16. He needs to refine some of his pitches, but has an amazing fastball.

My guess is that Perez will get the first chance to close games for the Cardinals, and he certainly has the stuff to hold the job. Tony LaRussa is reluctant to name a closer, but that is his nature as a manager and although Franklin got some saves in the last couple weeks, I think he is best suited in the seventh or eighth inning.

5. Can Joakim Soria and Brad Lidge repeat 2008?

No one could have guessed that the closer for the Royals could possibly be second in the majors in saves, but that is what Joakim Soria did in just his second season in the majors. It appears that the only thing holding this guy back from being one of the top few closers in fantasy baseball is the team that he plays on.

He will fall down some drafts because he plays for the Royals, and sometimes he can go a week without even a save opportunity. But Soria has blown just seven saves in two seasons, and has averaged more than a strikeout an inning in his short career.

He doesn’t allow too many people on base, and his ERA through two seasons is just 2.05. There is nothing on the surface to suggest that he shouldn’t thrive again in 2009, and should be among the top five closers off the board.

Brad Lidge may be a slightly different case. He has had a roller coaster of a career in the recent past, going from a shut down closer, to practically useless, back to dominant again.

Lidge was perfect in 2008, as he was 41-of-41 in save opportunities, had an ERA of just 1.95 and struck out a ridiculous 92 batters in just 69 innings. What more can you ask of the guy? Not to mention that he closes for the team that won the World Series, so you know there will be plenty of save chances again in ‘09.

BUT, he is sure to be over valued this season after the year he had. Lidge has always been among the best in striking guys out, but before 2008, he had two seasons where his ERA was well over 3.00, including one over 5.00. Before his perfect season, he had blown 14 saves the previous two seasons.

Now I’m not predicting that Lidge will lose his role and go back to Mr. Ineffective this season, but don’t forget that it happened and it is possible. Lidge certainly won’t be perfect converting save opportunities again, but he SHOULD be a great closer again in 2009. I just have a few reservations about taking him too high.

Do you have your own questions? Do you disagree? As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss “The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show” on Blog Talk Radio every Wednesday night at 10pm EST.