Breaking Down Odds Jeremy Lin Will Someday Win an NBA Championship

Jeremy Lin may be on track to become an All-Star one day soon, but it's far less clear that a title will similarly be in his future.

If Lin leaves New York—either this summer or later—there's obviously no telling what will happen. Should he remain with the Knicks, our best guesses will still be marred by a number of uncertainties thanks to a number of variables impacting this organization's future.

There's no question that New York has looked like a legitimate contender at times.

Unfortunately, at times it's also looked like a franchise that's entirely unable to take that next step. There are two very different faces to this team, and which one we see going forward will depend heavily on the following considerations.

The Amar'e Stoudemire Factor

The last two seasons have been a mixed bag for Stoudemire. In his first campaign with the Knicks, he put up over 25 points per game and looked to have settled in comfortably as Mike D'Antoni's first option. A year later, the addition of Carmelo Anthony and the mid-season departure of D'Antoni seemed to derail Stoudemire.

Injuries didn't help.

Chances are that the once-explosive power forward can bounce back and at least improve upon the 17.5 points he averaged in 2011-12. However, he may struggle to remain the offensive juggernaut he became with the Phoenix Suns. Unless he can find a way to better mesh with Carmelo Anthony on the court, the Knicks are almost certain to entertain prospective trades.

The problem is that few teams will have any interest in such a deal given that Amar'e is set to make over $23 million in 2014-15, the final year of his deal.

Iman Shumpert and the Non-Existant Youth Movement

There's a case to be made that the 23-year-old Lin would have been better off with the roster as it stood prior to the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony. Young guys like Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler could have grown and evolved into their prime years with Lin at their sides, potentially forming a dangerous core in another two or three years.

Without a first-round pick in this summer's draft, the closest thing to a young counterpart for Lin will be second-year guard Iman Shumpert. Shumpert had a fantastic rookie campaign this season, and impressed with his on-ball defense and surprisingly well-rounded scoring ability. 

Free agent Landry Fields is the next closest thing to an up-and-coming talent, and the Knicks will almost certainly attempt to keep him in the fold.

Otherwise, though, New York is likely to be in "win now" mode for at least the next three seasons. If the franchise is unable to cash in during that window, Lin could be in store for an untimely rebuilding process afterward.

Roster Flexibility

Perhaps the most troubling sign for Lin's near-term title hopes is that New York has made an all-or-nothing gamble with its decision to assemble a core compromised of Anthony, Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler. Each player is signed through 2014-15, a season in which they alone will be paid over $61 million.

That clearly impedes the team's ability to bring free agents into the fold, and it's hard to imagine anyone other than Anthony attracting much interest on the trade market. Insofar as Anthony is the last guy with whom New York would want to part, that likely leaves the Knicks to make the best of its current assets while undoubtedly tinkering around the margins of the rotation.

Perhaps New York's in-house talent will attract free agents willing to sacrifice dollars for a chance at a ring, but the Knicks will have to compete for those services with perennial contenders like the Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers or Oklahoma City Thunder.

Lin's Own Development

It goes without saying that Lin will at least partially control his destiny. As promising as his season with NYC proved him to be, he still has some work to do. His decision-making is suspect at times, and he'll obviously need to work on his ball control.

That said, the sky is the limit for his potential as a premier floor general. He can shoot, get in the paint and is a consummately deferential teammate. Those are the kind of qualities that any team wants in its back court, and they're also the characteristics of a championship-caliber point guard.

If New York becomes a legitimate contender, Lin's own improvement will be a principal reason.