Playing Pepper 2009: Atlanta Braves

As the players start getting themselves ready for another season, I thought it'd be a good idea to do the same.  I contacted a blogger for each major league team and posed them five questions.  This is the result.  You can find the tentative schedule of teams here and today's main post is right here.

For people of my generation, Atlanta Braves baseball conjures up memories of a daily dose of Skip Carey and company on TBS, the turnaround from laughingstock to perennial October participant and names like Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Chipper Jones.

Today's Braves, though, are starting to look a little different than those memories.  Maddux, of course, has been gone for a while and finally retired.  Smoltz left for Boston.  Skip Carey has passed on.  And the Braves haven't been in the playoffs for three years.

Kate at PIMC-Braves Blog was kind enough to take the time to answer a few questions about that team from the Deep South.
C70: How strange is it going to be to see John Smoltz in another uniform?

PIMC: It's going to be very odd to see him pitching for the Red Sox.  Smoltz spent 21 years in Atlanta and was the only player to be a part of all 14 straight divisional titles.  His Hall of Fame credentials which include 154 saves, 210 wins, over 3,000 strike outs and a Cy Young Award all came in a Braves uniform. 

At the same time, the team tried to play hard ball with him, which in a way was understandable because he is coming off an injury shortened year, back fired big time. Smoltz, the face of the organization, called their bluff and walked to the Red Sox.

I think Frank Wren knows he made a mistake and may try to make up for it by signing Tom Glavine who also lost a large part of 2008 due to injury.  Glavine is not Smoltz and it's a real shame that Smoltzie will not be able to finish off his career in a Braves uniform.

C70: Who will have a better year, Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami?

PIMC: That's a real hard one.  In many ways, Kawakami is an unknown factor.  Going off of his Japanese stats, he seems to be a real good pitcher. But like many of the Braves rotation from a season a go, Kawakami is coming off an injury plagued season where he only pitched 117.1 innings, down 50 innings from the year prior and almost a hundred innings off his career high. 

Even with the back problems, he maintained a low ERA of 2.30 and had 112 strikeouts.  It's hard to know how the switch from Japanese baseball to MLB will affect him, with the cultural differences, extra travel and extended season.

Derek Lowe, on the other hand, was not the pitcher the Braves were hoping for.  As it was well documented, they pursued Jake Peavy and A.J. Burnett before making a push for Lowe.  At 35, if he can replicate his 2008 stats, stay healthy, eat innings, I think his acquisition would be successful. 

If you just think about the fact that his win total from a year ago, 14, would have lead the Braves in wins for the season, you can see in what shambles Atlanta's rotation was in before they picked him up.

When you begin to factor the effect of outside expectations, experience and skill, I would see Lowe having the better season, but just marginally.  He has the MLB experience and will probably hold up better over the long run.

C70: Has Chipper Jones found a fountain of youth or will he drop off significantly from 2008?

PIMC: Ever since the 2004, Jones has suffered significantly from the injury bug.  With that being said, when in the lineup Chipper has been able to maintain a good batting average and on-base percentage while driving in runs and doing everything that has been expected of him.

If you take 2006 as an example, he only played in 110 games but still managed to have 82 RBIs.  That was also the same year he tied the record for most consecutive games with an extra base hit.

The key with Jones is his health.  Statistically speaking, I don't see him having a huge drop off. A .364 batting average maybe hard to replicate, but this is also a guy who has a career average of .310.  If he can stay healthy, I believe Chipper can have another productive season.

C70: Are there any plans for Bobby Cox to retire and who might be next in line for the job if he did?

PIMC: Going into the 2008 season, there was wide speculation as to whether 2008 would be Bobby Cox's final season as manager of the Atlanta Braves.  A few months into the season and it was clear Cox would remain at the helm until at least the end of 2009 after he signed a contract extension.

At this point, I do not believe there any immediate plans for Bobby to retire, however that doesn't mean he won't do it soon.  I used to think that it would be Cox pulling the plug, but after the Smoltz debacle, it is unclear how GM Frank Wren will treat other members of the Braves establishment.

One thing is for sure, Bobby will not manage the Braves forever and if I had to guess, I would think that hitting coach Terry Pendleton would be the next in line to the Braves managerial throne, that is, if he is still available when the vacancy arises.

C70: Can the Braves win the division and what has to happen for that to occur?

PIMC: The Braves would need a miracle to win the Division in 2009.

Does that sound bad—after all, they are not the Nationals?  Ok, I'll expand. They have certainly upgraded their starting rotation with the additions of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami; however they neglected their offense this offseason which has some major holes.

Once you get past Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, the lineup drops off dramatically. They are in serious need of a big bat and, after 2008, it's hard to tell whether Jeff Francoeur can help fill that void.  In addition there are still some major question marks as to who will play in left and center field. 

To compare their batting order to major run producers like the Mets and Phillies in their division and it's easy to see that the Braves will be facing a big uphill battle in 2009 in their current incarnation.

I appreciate Kate taking the time to talk about the Braves.  They've always been a classy organization in my mind—I hope they stick to their stance about not working with Rafael Furcal's agents—and it'll be interesting to see just how competitive they are in 2009.