Chad Billingsley or James Shields: Who Would You Rather Have?

As I prepared my keeper list late last week, I was posed with an interesting dilemma.  With James Shields already on my roster, a trade was proposed to me to acquire Chad Billingsley.

With only one spot available, the question of which would be a better pitcher to lock up arose.  It is not so clear-cut, is it? Before we get into my ultimate decision, let’s first take a look at how I got there.

Last season was Billingsley’s first full year as a major league starter.  He started off slow, posting a 5.20 ERA in April (some point to a few relief appearances to start the season), but after that he never looked back.

His season ERA was 3.14, thanks to the following monthly breakdown:

• May - 1.89
• June - 3.56
• July - 2.32
• August - 3.41
• September - 3.24

Yes, he didn’t pitch well in the postseason, posting an ERA of 8.49 in his three starts, but it is very possible that he simply wore down by year’s end. After throwing just 147.0 innings in 2007, he threw 212.1 this year (including the playoffs). 

That’s not to say that I believe he’s an injury risk, as I know some would point to due to that drastic of an increase.  It’s something to keep in mind, but not a concern for me.

Pitching not only in the NL, but the NL West, gives Billingsley a huge edge. He regularly faces weak offenses like the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, teams that he handled easily last season (ERA’s of 2.70 and 2.08, respectively). He also does not have to deal with a DH, another positive.

Shields posted a 3.56 ERA, his second consecutive season under 4.00, with June being the only month he pitched above 3.89 (he posted a 5.02 that month). That’s extremely impressive, but he is at a disadvantage not only because he calls the AL home, but the AL East.

While Billingsley will be facing weak offenses, Shields gets to face the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Boston roughed him up last season, tagging him for a 5.85 ERA. He handled the Yankees, with a 1.77 ERA, but that’s just not something I would bank on him repeating. 

The Yankees have added a major bat in Mark Teixeira this offseason and are likely to boast one of the better offenses in the league. That’s a lot for him to overcome and puts him at a distinct disadvantage in the ERA department.

He certainly makes up for it in WHIP. Over the past two seasons, Shields has posted WHIP’s of 1.11 and 1.15, putting him among the league's elite. The fact that he’s done it for two consecutive seasons also leads me to believe that it is extremely realistic, though it would not be unthinkable to see it rise slightly, though probably not dramatically so.

The Rays' defense certainly helps, as he has given up a BABIP of .292 each of the past two seasons.  While that’s great, the biggest key is his BB/9:

• 2007 - 1.51
• 2008 - 1.67

Billingsley not only gives up more hits (his BABIP was .323 last season, though that should decrease some), he walks more then twice as many batters. His BB/9 last season was 3.59, not a number that I see him reducing very much, if at all. That certainly keeps him from putting up a WHIP even close to Shields.

Last season, Billingsley’s WHIP was 1.34, a number that is usable but far from elite.  Even if he can reduce it to the 1.30 range, he’s likely to be a full tenth of a point higher then Shields.

With the wins likely to be even, how can Billingsley overcome such a drastic deficit?  Once you factor in the ERA, it is a manageable discrepancy, which strikeouts certainly helps to even out. Billingsley emerged as one of the best in the league last season, posting 201 K’s and a K/9 of 9.01.

With a minor league K/9 of 10.3 (including a 9.9 in 70.2 Triple A innings), it would appear that this number is more then repeatable. Could he take a slight step back? Of course, but it’s safe to bet that he’s going to be striking out at least 8.5 batters per 9 innings, meaning he once again has a chance to eclipse 200 K’s.

Shields, meanwhile, is going in the other direction. His K/9 took a dramatic hit last season, as you can see here:

• 2007 - 184 K in 215 IP (K/9 of 7.70)
• 2008 - 160 K in 215 IP (K/9 of 6.70)

So, which is it? If he is closer to the ‘07 number it’s something that you can deal with, but the ‘08 number gives Billingsley a big edge. His minor league K/9 was 7.9 and actually increased as he moved up the ranks.

That’s a good sign, but it is not something I’m willing to bank on. It would appear he’s likely in the middle somewhere between the two seasons, meaning Billingsley could eclipse him by 40 or 50 strikeouts.

So, where exactly does this leave us? Shields has the WHIP edge, but Billingsley has the edge in strikeouts. Wins are a likely a push, meaning it all boils down to ERA for me. 

While they could be close, if I have a choice between a pitcher in the NL West or the AL East, the NL West is going to win out every time.

This isn’t to say that I don’t want Shields on my team, because I do, but the risk is there for Shields to regress to an ERA right at 4.00, especially with the improvements the Yankees have made. 

I just don’t see him dominating them again like he did in ‘08. Billingsley, meanwhile, pitches in one of the weakest offensive divisions in all of baseball, giving him a clear advantage.

If I have the choice between the two, I’m going with Billingsley, though it is extremely close. What do you think?  Which pitcher would you rather have on your roster?

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