Cleveland Indians' Report: Tribe Will Contend in AL for 2009

In the last three even numbered years, the Indians have won 80, 78 and 81 games. In the last two odd numbered years, they have won 93 and 96 (making the playoffs in 2007). So if recent history proves true, Tribe fans should have something to cheer about this season.

Last season, the team had high hopes going into the year only to suffer a rash of injuries which eventually led to the trade of free-agent-to-be C.C. Sabathia. Some of the youngsters stepped it up in the second half and they did manage to go on a small run to make it to .500.

There is some hope. Perhaps with some lower expectations, a little tinkering from GM Mark Shapiro, and the return of some core players from injuries, this team can win the AL Central Division.

Bullpen

The bullpen becomes the strength of the team. Which is a far cry from the “gas can gang” it was in 2008. Shapiro has learned from past success (and failure), that a strong bullpen can disguise a lot of short-comings when building on a limited budget.

Youngster Jensen Lewis came up from AAA and saved 13 out of 14 to finish out 2008.

This year, he will move into the setup roll and serve as insurance for veteran free agent acquisition Kerry Wood.

Wood saved 34 for the Cubbies and struck out 84 in 66.1 innings last year. He will solidify the pen and give them the power armed closer they have been searching for what seems like forever.

Lefty Rafael Perez has been lights out as a setup man the past two years, and hopefully Rafael Betancourt will bounce back to be one of the premier relievers he had been from 2003-2007. Betancourt was over-worked in 2007, which led to his struggles in 2008.

Masahide Kobayashi and former Met sidearmer Joe Smith add depth. The Tribe also signed a number of veterans with some past success to minor league deals like Matt Herges, Greg Aquino, Kirk Sarloos, Jack Cassell, and Vinnie Chulk.

A player to keep an eye on in spring training is flame-throwing right-hander Adam Miller. Miller has suffered through injuries the last few years, including persistent issues with finger blisters. If he can put that behind him, you are looking at a serious big-league arm with a plus-fastball and a plus-breaking ball.

Starting Pitching

The key for the Indians may be their starting rotation. Last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee will lead the rotation. It is unrealistic to expect the same season out of Lee, but he should be good for 15-18 wins.

Look for Fausto Carmona to come back from an injury-plagued 2008 season. Carmona dealt with a hip flexor all of last season which led to some mechanical breakdowns.

People forget that just two years ago Fausto was under consideration for the Cy Young. When healthy he leaves major-leaguer hitters scratching their heads while chasing his devastating sinking fastball.

The rest of the rotation is in flux. The Tribe is counting on some help from injury-prone Carl Pavano and a promising, but inconsistent group that includes Anthony Reyes, Jeremy Sowers, Zach Jackson, and Aaron Laffey.

Reyes in particular is intriguing. He has been virtually unhittable in the minors, but that has translated into mixed results in his short stints with the Cardinals. Laffey and Sowers have both had some limited success.

The hope is that they will not have to rush young pitchers David Huff, Scott Lewis or Jon Meloan to the big leagues too early. They are also banking on the return to the rotation of No. 3 starter Jake Westbrook sometime after the All-Star break.

Outfield

Centerfield will be manned by one of the best all-around players in the game, Grady Sizemore. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen calls him the best player in the American League.

Sizemore is a black hole in the outfield. He can hit for average and power while adding 38 stolen bases to his arsenal last year. He needs to cut down on his strikeout total, but having Martinez and Hafner back in the lineup to protect him will help.

In a down year Sizemore still won the Silver Slugger Award as the best hitter at his position in 2008. The guy is a flat-out “gamer” who plays the way you want to teach your kids to play the game.

The corner outfield positions are a little more tenuous. Youngsters Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo will get the first crack. They were both inconsistent in their short turns in the majors last year, but showed promise both defensively and with the bat.

If they fail, it will not be long before we see power-hitting outfielder Matt LaPorta up in the big leagues. He was the key to the Sabathia trade. LaPorta has put up big numbers in the minors and shows extraordinary bat control for a guy with his power.

Two other minor leaguers waiting in the wings are outfielders Trevor Crowe and Michael Brantley. Both are speedy outfielders who can hit for average and steal bases.

Infield

The Indians have very little to worry about here. 1B Ryan Garko and Victor Martinez will make a nice lefty-righty platoon with pop. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera is as slick as they come with the glove and can handle himself at the plate.

Tribe fans complain about SS Jhonny Peralta’s limited range. But Peralta makes the plays he needs to make in the field, and is among the best hitting shortstops in the league (.276, 23 HRs, 89 RBI, 104 runs in 2008).

One unsung offseason roster move was stealing third baseman Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for a bag of beans. DeRosa is a great club-house guy with a good glove. DeRosa has a well-earned reputation as a “professional” hitter who will get you 15-20 HRs, knock in 70-90 runs and hit .290. His versatility may come in handy should one of the corner outfielders struggle.

Jamie Carroll and Josh Barfield are capable bench players at second, third, and shortstop. Newly acquired Louis Valbuena is a wizard with the glove, but will need more seasoning at AAA before he will contribute.

Designated Hitter

This team could sink or swim depending on the health of DH Travis Hafner. Hafner went from being one of the premier left-handed power hitters in the league to a shell of himself after suffering a shoulder injury. If Hafner returns to form—which is a big IF, Cleveland will contend.

Catcher

An injury to All-Star catcher Victor Martinez also torpedoed the Indians’ 2008 season. He should return to form this year and will get a break from behind the plate by occasionally playing first base and designated hitter. Backup C Kelly Shoppach has earned the right to more playing time, displaying excellent defensive skills behind the dish as well as hitting 21 bombs in just 352 at-bats.

Final Prediction

This team possesses impressive depth, defense and hitting from their everyday lineup. They have a much-improved bullpen and should have just enough starting pitching to put them in the hunt in the AL Central Division.

Even if Hafner cannot make a full recovery, they should win 85-88 games. If Hafner and Martinez make complete recoveries, they could win 88-92 games.

Anything can happen in the playoffs. There will not be a lot of teams clamoring to face the one-two punch of Lee and Carmona in a short series.